6 ms·

> COVID clearly isn't going away at this point, so by all means try to replace it with something weaker! Probably naive to think we could totally eradicate it

by ljm 5y ago

> COVID clearly isn't going away at this point, so by all means try to replace it with something weaker! Probably naive to think we could totally eradicate it within a couple of years, particularly as far as vaccine fearmongering is concerned. Would be nice to see it join Smallpox and Polio though. That said, we've accepted an annual winter uptick in flu infections and we just tell people most vulnerable to get their yearly flu jab; less vulnerable folks can stay at home for a bit and manage the symptoms. If that's what we have to do for covid every winter then so be it. I would still call that a victory overall.

jatone 5y ago
I havent seen any evidence covid is seasonal. it may become seasonal. but nothing in the past 2 years as indicated it is.
- QuarterReptile 5y ago
  Just so other commenters can understand: are you saying that you haven't seen the charts with enormous spikes on them every time a place enters a cold season? Or that you find them to be uncompelling for some (as yet undisclosed) reason?
  - unmole 5y ago
    The second wave hit India at the height of summer. That outlier is big enough for me to be sceptical.
- coolspot 5y ago
  Have you seen infection/death charts? It peaks in winter and at its minimum in summer.
  - unmole 5y ago
    Have you seen the charts for India?
    - selectodude 5y ago
      Have you seen the charts for literally the rest of the world? You're picking an outlier as proof that its not seasonal. Others may say it's the exception that proves the rule.
      - unmole 5y ago
        > Have you seen the charts for literally the rest of the world? I just did. There are no discernable spikes coinciding with cold weather for India, Brazil, the UK or Russia.
        selectodude 5y ago
        I decided to check Brazil really quickly and there's a very steep drop off once summer hit. I don't even need to bother with the UK.
        unmole 5y ago
        The steep drop off starts of in July which in Brazil is winter.
        Izkata 5y ago
        Most of Brazil is pretty temperate year-round, so they don't really have a very sharp flu season, but what they do have typically peaks around June, which fits with when the covid drop started. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_season#Timing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_season#Timing -> https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/165/12/1434/125289 https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/165/12/1434/125289 > In the Fourier analysis, the seasonality of influenza in Brazil was characterized by a semiannual pattern, peaking in the winter month of June (amplitude = 27 percent), with a second, smaller peak during the summer (January; amplitude = 13 percent; figure 2).
kiba 5y ago
That said, we've accepted an annual winter uptick in flu infections and we just tell people most vulnerable to get their yearly flu jab; less vulnerable folks can stay at home for a bit and manage the symptoms. If that's what we have to do for covid every winter then so be it. Accepted? I would call that normalizing as well. According to an estimate, about 290,000 to 650,000 globally died of the flu each year.[1] Normalization means it's a problem out of mind out of sight. We stop demanding these problems to be solved. 1. https://www.who.int/news/item/13-12-2017-up-to-650-000-people-die-of-respiratory-diseases-linked-to-seasonal-flu-each-year https://www.who.int/news/item/13-12-2017-up-to-650-000-peopl...
- systemvoltage 5y ago
  If it means more lockdowns and more restrictions, more government powers; absolutely normalize COVID. We have given up enough.
  - kiba 5y ago
    Just because our economy cannot withstand further lockdowns and restrictions doesn't mean that the normalization of COVID is any more excusable. It just means we failed.
    - selectodude 5y ago
      It has nothing to do with the economy. Humans are social creatures. You can pay me $100,000/mo to sit in my house indefinitely and I can almost guarantee you it'll end in depression and suicide.
    - systemvoltage 5y ago
      To take this to extreme: We’ve failed to solve deaths. We should have solutions to aging and indefinite life. Since we have 100% death ratio, show us your health history along with your verifiable ID. We are the ministry of Truth and Safety. In all seriousness: We need to push back on robbing of civil liberties. No one cared to check for flu vaccine. It should be the same for COVID now that it’s getting weaker and it won’t end forever.
capdeck 5y ago
> I would still call that a victory overall. Humanity declared victory over every single pathogen to date (eradicated, contained or seasonal) because we are still here and thriving. We should go on with our lives.
- notreallyserio 5y ago
  In the mean time we should do whatever we can to avoid filling hospitals to capacity.
  - sjwalter 5y ago
    Sure, but hospitals are run at a level to hit peak capacity at the point when vitamin D deficiency peaks. Here's LA County using overflow tents in 2018 because the flu season was particularly bad: https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-flu-demand-20180116-htmlstory.html https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-flu-demand-2018... So it's not like this is some new threat. "2 weeks to flatten the curve" came along with some understanding that hospitals would increase their resources. Instead, in many states, they've spent more time working out which unvaccinated staff to fire and how than they have increasing staffing levels.
  - rajup 5y ago
    Sounds good. 2 years on with enough vaccines and antiviral pills on the way if you still believe hospitals are "filled to capacity", I'd like what you're smoking.
    - isoskeles 5y ago
      I’m smoking a wadded-up copy of that Rolling Stone article about gunshot victims waiting for the ER.
  - capdeck 5y ago
    ... or maybe we should stop closing hospitals during the pandemic? [US Closing Hospitals At Record Pace During Pandemic - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz46ZQSRdRE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz46ZQSRdRE)
azekai 5y ago
>Probably naive to think we could totally eradicate it within a couple of years, particularly as far as vaccine fearmongering is concerned. Would be nice to see it join Smallpox and Polio though. We would have to completely redesign our current method of vaccination, then. We do not have a sterilizing vaccine for COVID (like we did for smallpox and polio). The current vaccines all use spike proteins to prepare a body's antibodies against the main infection tool of the COVID virus. This method indirectly prevents the virus from efficiently infecting cells in vaccinated hosts, but it does not and cannot eradicate the virus.
- QuarterReptile 5y ago
  Would someone who is flagging this comment please, instead, respond to it? If it is so trivially dismissed, please show the rest of us.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- bagels 5y ago
  Is it possible for one to be developed?
  - azekai 5y ago
    I think that is what we need to figure out. I think our current method of vaccination was a clever hack, designed to do something in the early days of the pandemic. I think there were good reasons for this, too: a traditional vaccine aimed at early COVID would not have been very effective, as once we were alerted to the real danger, the cat was already out of the bag, and new variants were only a matter of time, but likely could not be reliably predicted. However, more than a year later, I think now we should not only catalogue the arising variants, but we should also make a serious attempt to move away from spike-protein based vaccines in favor of traditional, weakened virus vaccines.
- CorrectHorseBat 5y ago
  What other target would be better for a sterilizing vaccine?
roywiggins 5y ago
It won't join smallpox because it has lots of animal reservoirs. https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/17/health/covid-deer-animals/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/17/health/covid-deer-animals/ind...

by ljm 5y ago

jatone 5y ago

I havent seen any evidence covid is seasonal. it may become seasonal. but nothing in the past 2 years as indicated it is.

QuarterReptile 5y ago
Just so other commenters can understand: are you saying that you haven't seen the charts with enormous spikes on them every time a place enters a cold season? Or that you find them to be uncompelling for some (as yet undisclosed) reason?
- unmole 5y ago
  The second wave hit India at the height of summer. That outlier is big enough for me to be sceptical.
coolspot 5y ago
Have you seen infection/death charts? It peaks in winter and at its minimum in summer.
- unmole 5y ago
  Have you seen the charts for India?
  - selectodude 5y ago
    Have you seen the charts for literally the rest of the world? You're picking an outlier as proof that its not seasonal. Others may say it's the exception that proves the rule.
    - unmole 5y ago
      > Have you seen the charts for literally the rest of the world? I just did. There are no discernable spikes coinciding with cold weather for India, Brazil, the UK or Russia.
      - selectodude 5y ago
        I decided to check Brazil really quickly and there's a very steep drop off once summer hit. I don't even need to bother with the UK.
        unmole 5y ago
        The steep drop off starts of in July which in Brazil is winter.
        Izkata 5y ago
        Most of Brazil is pretty temperate year-round, so they don't really have a very sharp flu season, but what they do have typically peaks around June, which fits with when the covid drop started. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_season#Timing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_season#Timing -> https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/165/12/1434/125289 https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/165/12/1434/125289 > In the Fourier analysis, the seasonality of influenza in Brazil was characterized by a semiannual pattern, peaking in the winter month of June (amplitude = 27 percent), with a second, smaller peak during the summer (January; amplitude = 13 percent; figure 2).

kiba 5y ago

That said, we've accepted an annual winter uptick in flu infections and we just tell people most vulnerable to get their yearly flu jab; less vulnerable folks can stay at home for a bit and manage the symptoms. If that's what we have to do for covid every winter then so be it. Accepted? I would call that normalizing as well. According to an estimate, about 290,000 to 650,000 globally died of the flu each year.[1] Normalization means it's a problem out of mind out of sight. We stop demanding these problems to be solved. 1. https://www.who.int/news/item/13-12-2017-up-to-650-000-people-die-of-respiratory-diseases-linked-to-seasonal-flu-each-year https://www.who.int/news/item/13-12-2017-up-to-650-000-peopl...

systemvoltage 5y ago
If it means more lockdowns and more restrictions, more government powers; absolutely normalize COVID. We have given up enough.
- kiba 5y ago
  Just because our economy cannot withstand further lockdowns and restrictions doesn't mean that the normalization of COVID is any more excusable. It just means we failed.
  - selectodude 5y ago
    It has nothing to do with the economy. Humans are social creatures. You can pay me $100,000/mo to sit in my house indefinitely and I can almost guarantee you it'll end in depression and suicide.
  - systemvoltage 5y ago
    To take this to extreme: We’ve failed to solve deaths. We should have solutions to aging and indefinite life. Since we have 100% death ratio, show us your health history along with your verifiable ID. We are the ministry of Truth and Safety. In all seriousness: We need to push back on robbing of civil liberties. No one cared to check for flu vaccine. It should be the same for COVID now that it’s getting weaker and it won’t end forever.

capdeck 5y ago

> I would still call that a victory overall. Humanity declared victory over every single pathogen to date (eradicated, contained or seasonal) because we are still here and thriving. We should go on with our lives.

notreallyserio 5y ago
In the mean time we should do whatever we can to avoid filling hospitals to capacity.
- sjwalter 5y ago
  Sure, but hospitals are run at a level to hit peak capacity at the point when vitamin D deficiency peaks. Here's LA County using overflow tents in 2018 because the flu season was particularly bad: https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-flu-demand-20180116-htmlstory.html https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-flu-demand-2018... So it's not like this is some new threat. "2 weeks to flatten the curve" came along with some understanding that hospitals would increase their resources. Instead, in many states, they've spent more time working out which unvaccinated staff to fire and how than they have increasing staffing levels.
- rajup 5y ago
  Sounds good. 2 years on with enough vaccines and antiviral pills on the way if you still believe hospitals are "filled to capacity", I'd like what you're smoking.
  - isoskeles 5y ago
    I’m smoking a wadded-up copy of that Rolling Stone article about gunshot victims waiting for the ER.
- capdeck 5y ago
  ... or maybe we should stop closing hospitals during the pandemic? [US Closing Hospitals At Record Pace During Pandemic - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz46ZQSRdRE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz46ZQSRdRE)

azekai 5y ago

>Probably naive to think we could totally eradicate it within a couple of years, particularly as far as vaccine fearmongering is concerned. Would be nice to see it join Smallpox and Polio though. We would have to completely redesign our current method of vaccination, then. We do not have a sterilizing vaccine for COVID (like we did for smallpox and polio). The current vaccines all use spike proteins to prepare a body's antibodies against the main infection tool of the COVID virus. This method indirectly prevents the virus from efficiently infecting cells in vaccinated hosts, but it does not and cannot eradicate the virus.

QuarterReptile 5y ago
Would someone who is flagging this comment please, instead, respond to it? If it is so trivially dismissed, please show the rest of us.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
bagels 5y ago
Is it possible for one to be developed?
- azekai 5y ago
  I think that is what we need to figure out. I think our current method of vaccination was a clever hack, designed to do something in the early days of the pandemic. I think there were good reasons for this, too: a traditional vaccine aimed at early COVID would not have been very effective, as once we were alerted to the real danger, the cat was already out of the bag, and new variants were only a matter of time, but likely could not be reliably predicted. However, more than a year later, I think now we should not only catalogue the arising variants, but we should also make a serious attempt to move away from spike-protein based vaccines in favor of traditional, weakened virus vaccines.
CorrectHorseBat 5y ago
What other target would be better for a sterilizing vaccine?

roywiggins 5y ago

It won't join smallpox because it has lots of animal reservoirs. https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/17/health/covid-deer-animals/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/17/health/covid-deer-animals/ind...