No, the most important is if real losses flow through the local banking system, and that causes a liquidity run on those banks. Other than that, yes the pain c

No, the most important is if real losses flow through the local banking system, and that causes a liquidity run on those banks. Other than that, yes the pain can in principle be contained to the dollar bond market, but even that price signal is now enough to let people start doing the (pretty ugly) math on if we're talking $100bn or $10tr of losses. If anyone sees estimates, would love to take a look!