3 ms·

Playing fast and loose here with warning definitions. They had 2 days warning. not 20 minutes.

themaninthedark 5y ago
They had 2 day warning that the weather system was likely to produce tornadoes. Comment say that Mayfield had about 2.5 hours of warning based on this blog: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/12/a-critical-gap-in-tornado-warning.html?m=1 https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/12/a-critical-gap-in-tor... If you look at the area encompassed by the tornado watch, should they have evacuated it in it's entirety? https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEji0sqQJqWoAwe9rODyi4NfOkGdcAHwXrqG4WGlX9S22VZp_kKQI3vx2yrVAvI8MCmyVE6bGUALREgpMLo8pEyfw6PWhpjWawDLhWNnhMphquNc_i6wL-G_6NucN0fxTmxGubmBwQP1YjA8syn2mQcOPCf6L55zMTxxzMCdPB_0fPuLOpC6fOtssQA0=s1140 https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEji0sqQJqWo... Look about 300mi x 170mi area. If you take Jones burro as the center, its 120mi to the edge, technically if everyone could evacuate at 60mph you could get everyone out in 2 hours.... but with NWS tornado warnings have a False Alarm Rate (FAR) of roughly 70% you probably won't get that many people to evacuate at all unless you make it mandatory. Then it will take much longer than 2 hours to get people out. You are talking about massive areas with small amounts of time: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhcPxy7gbyruPRvRpRf3x7zQ4ZaUWhAmVIcMzQSB1GHP4WictUICuT8R3OyM2Bc1S2QNAM1D2w0x4NyYaYMQEfFMUqXekRbN9L4RAl4OctlijmXFxvMK1ho-Us3eqJaEz9OAmNpDvTB4KjPkO7HkBfgBKr9LR0oF7f5X6492SQuO9aF_a0129710lpM=s1020 https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhcPxy7gbyr... is roughly 430 square miles for something that is small and fast moving.
- MrStonedOne 5y ago
  What? I'm not talking about evacuating people... I'm talking about not forcing them to come in to work for a 3rd shift overnight run that can most definitely be delayed by a shift for a weather pattern known to create high numbers of tornadoes.
- selimthegrim 5y ago
  As that comment corrected that was more like 20 min (time zone wise)

They had 2 day warning that the weather system was likely to produce tornadoes. Comment say that Mayfield had about 2.5 hours of warning based on this blog: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/12/a-critical-gap-in-tornado-warning.html?m=1 https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/12/a-critical-gap-in-tor... If you look at the area encompassed by the tornado watch, should they have evacuated it in it's entirety? https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEji0sqQJqWoAwe9rODyi4NfOkGdcAHwXrqG4WGlX9S22VZp_kKQI3vx2yrVAvI8MCmyVE6bGUALREgpMLo8pEyfw6PWhpjWawDLhWNnhMphquNc_i6wL-G_6NucN0fxTmxGubmBwQP1YjA8syn2mQcOPCf6L55zMTxxzMCdPB_0fPuLOpC6fOtssQA0=s1140 https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEji0sqQJqWo... Look about 300mi x 170mi area. If you take Jones burro as the center, its 120mi to the edge, technically if everyone could evacuate at 60mph you could get everyone out in 2 hours.... but with NWS tornado warnings have a False Alarm Rate (FAR) of roughly 70% you probably won't get that many people to evacuate at all unless you make it mandatory. Then it will take much longer than 2 hours to get people out. You are talking about massive areas with small amounts of time: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhcPxy7gbyruPRvRpRf3x7zQ4ZaUWhAmVIcMzQSB1GHP4WictUICuT8R3OyM2Bc1S2QNAM1D2w0x4NyYaYMQEfFMUqXekRbN9L4RAl4OctlijmXFxvMK1ho-Us3eqJaEz9OAmNpDvTB4KjPkO7HkBfgBKr9LR0oF7f5X6492SQuO9aF_a0129710lpM=s1020 https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhcPxy7gbyr... is roughly 430 square miles for something that is small and fast moving.

MrStonedOne 5y ago
What? I'm not talking about evacuating people... I'm talking about not forcing them to come in to work for a 3rd shift overnight run that can most definitely be delayed by a shift for a weather pattern known to create high numbers of tornadoes.
selimthegrim 5y ago
As that comment corrected that was more like 20 min (time zone wise)