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For folks saying you can't really predict tornadoes, I grew up in the Midwest so I hear what you're saying, but this was different. I look at weather every day

by _moof 5y ago

For folks saying you can't really predict tornadoes, I grew up in the Midwest so I hear what you're saying, but this was different. I look at weather every day in an operational context and I can tell you that everyone who knows anything about weather saw this coming days beforehand. The low that produced these storms was a monster--one of the biggest, if not the biggest, I've ever seen that wasn't a hurricane. The cold front stretched all the way from Canada to the southern tip of Mexico. But aside from its strength, its behavior was basically textbook, and it had been marching across the US all week. There were headlines the day before about tornadoes coming. So this wasn't a surprise.

rectang 5y ago
Do you support shutting down businesses for the duration of any Tornado Watch? If you only support shutting down businesses during Tornado Warnings, then what should the Candle Factory have done differently? Because they had a shelter, and the employees were in it.
- _moof 5y ago
  I don't have an opinion on the risk management decision made here because I don't know anything about the building. Just wanted to "clear the air," if you will, on the weather because I saw a lot of comments that made it sound like people thought this was a run-of-the-mill Midwestern tornado.
- shkkmo 5y ago
  > Do you support shutting down businesses for the duration of any Tornado Watch? That depends on the risk factors for each businesses. How quickly can you get your employees to safety if a tornado warning comes? How secure is your tornado shelter? It also depends on how big the storm system was, this one was massive.
- vanusa 5y ago
  Do you support shutting down businesses for the duration of any Tornado Watch? It would depend on the severity -- and shelter capabilities at the business site -- of course.
silisili 5y ago
Yep. I'm from not too far from there, but in FL now, I always check the weather there especially in the winter to see how cold it gets as I consider moving back. I remember seeing high 71, low 65. First thought was LOL that's a mistake, but confirmed it at another site. Then saw next day low of 29. I remember telling my wife how crazy that was, and they're gonna get bad winds or tornados.
- flutas 5y ago
  The day the temps were so high you could just tell something was coming. The air was super heavy and muggy, and it was almost eerily calm that day. I even looked to my husband and said "this is gonna be a bad one" that day. Luckily my area got missed for the majority of it, but unluckily it did hit other areas nearby.
vanusa 5y ago
So this wasn't a surprise. Thanks the detailed clarification. I know all these people saying "this happens every week in the midwest", "you only get 10-15 minutes warning" meant well -- but from everything I was reading about the lead-up to this disaster -- something in those retorts just didn't add up.
- rhino369 5y ago
  Part of the problem is tornado watches are very commonplace in the midwest. Business never close because of them. Little league games would be canceled, you'd keep an eye on the weather, would stay inside, etc., but its not like a hurricane. If this was an atypical storm that meteorologists saw coming well in advance, then the emergency alert system should have been activated with a warning that made it clear that this was not like a normal storm--shelter in place or something like that. But in the ~30 years I spent in the midwest we never had anything like that happen--preemptive shutdown for tornadoes.
  - counters 5y ago
    Just throwing it out there, but in the past 10 years there has been a trend in some parts of the country (Oklahoma, Dixie Alley, etc) to shut down events and hold students from school when significant severe weather outbreaks are expected, usually a "MODERATE" or a "HIGH" probability convective outlook from the SPC. But this is always in deference to timing - e.g. closing school because the event is expected to be ramping up around the time when children may be on buses at the end of the day. It's a reasonable precaution that a municipality can choose to make. But I can't think of an instance of such cancellations and closures occurring for overnight storms.
    - WorldMaker 5y ago
      > But I can't think of an instance of such cancellations and closures occurring for overnight storms. Yes, this article points out some of the very reasons why overnight tornadic activity is much more common (and deadly) on the "edges" of (the expanding) tornado alley (the Southeast US and the states such as Indiana and Ohio often referred to as "midwest" for historic reasons rather than accurate geographic ones) than more centrally in it (Texas, Oklohoma, most of the rest of the Great Plains) where daytime storms are more common.
cbfrench 5y ago
Thank you for this. This was an exceptionally well forecasted system, and it was clear the potential danger was significant. It was one of the few outbreaks I’ve seen that was as clearly advertised beforehand. I’m just a hobbyist weather nerd, but I couldn’t believe some of the language coming out of SPC and some of the local WFOs in advance of the event.

by _moof 5y ago

rectang 5y ago

Do you support shutting down businesses for the duration of any Tornado Watch? If you only support shutting down businesses during Tornado Warnings, then what should the Candle Factory have done differently? Because they had a shelter, and the employees were in it.

_moof 5y ago
I don't have an opinion on the risk management decision made here because I don't know anything about the building. Just wanted to "clear the air," if you will, on the weather because I saw a lot of comments that made it sound like people thought this was a run-of-the-mill Midwestern tornado.
shkkmo 5y ago
> Do you support shutting down businesses for the duration of any Tornado Watch? That depends on the risk factors for each businesses. How quickly can you get your employees to safety if a tornado warning comes? How secure is your tornado shelter? It also depends on how big the storm system was, this one was massive.
vanusa 5y ago
Do you support shutting down businesses for the duration of any Tornado Watch? It would depend on the severity -- and shelter capabilities at the business site -- of course.

silisili 5y ago

Yep. I'm from not too far from there, but in FL now, I always check the weather there especially in the winter to see how cold it gets as I consider moving back. I remember seeing high 71, low 65. First thought was LOL that's a mistake, but confirmed it at another site. Then saw next day low of 29. I remember telling my wife how crazy that was, and they're gonna get bad winds or tornados.

flutas 5y ago
The day the temps were so high you could just tell something was coming. The air was super heavy and muggy, and it was almost eerily calm that day. I even looked to my husband and said "this is gonna be a bad one" that day. Luckily my area got missed for the majority of it, but unluckily it did hit other areas nearby.

vanusa 5y ago

So this wasn't a surprise. Thanks the detailed clarification. I know all these people saying "this happens every week in the midwest", "you only get 10-15 minutes warning" meant well -- but from everything I was reading about the lead-up to this disaster -- something in those retorts just didn't add up.

rhino369 5y ago
Part of the problem is tornado watches are very commonplace in the midwest. Business never close because of them. Little league games would be canceled, you'd keep an eye on the weather, would stay inside, etc., but its not like a hurricane. If this was an atypical storm that meteorologists saw coming well in advance, then the emergency alert system should have been activated with a warning that made it clear that this was not like a normal storm--shelter in place or something like that. But in the ~30 years I spent in the midwest we never had anything like that happen--preemptive shutdown for tornadoes.
- counters 5y ago
  Just throwing it out there, but in the past 10 years there has been a trend in some parts of the country (Oklahoma, Dixie Alley, etc) to shut down events and hold students from school when significant severe weather outbreaks are expected, usually a "MODERATE" or a "HIGH" probability convective outlook from the SPC. But this is always in deference to timing - e.g. closing school because the event is expected to be ramping up around the time when children may be on buses at the end of the day. It's a reasonable precaution that a municipality can choose to make. But I can't think of an instance of such cancellations and closures occurring for overnight storms.
  - WorldMaker 5y ago
    > But I can't think of an instance of such cancellations and closures occurring for overnight storms. Yes, this article points out some of the very reasons why overnight tornadic activity is much more common (and deadly) on the "edges" of (the expanding) tornado alley (the Southeast US and the states such as Indiana and Ohio often referred to as "midwest" for historic reasons rather than accurate geographic ones) than more centrally in it (Texas, Oklohoma, most of the rest of the Great Plains) where daytime storms are more common.

cbfrench 5y ago

Thank you for this. This was an exceptionally well forecasted system, and it was clear the potential danger was significant. It was one of the few outbreaks I’ve seen that was as clearly advertised beforehand. I’m just a hobbyist weather nerd, but I couldn’t believe some of the language coming out of SPC and some of the local WFOs in advance of the event.