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While I agree we don't really know, I think it is quite likely to have a negative effect. Take, for example, these comments, which are full of people who have

While I agree we don't really know, I think it is quite likely to have a negative effect. Take, for example, these comments, which are full of people who have left NYC, a place where you can function entirely without a car, and moved to places like Texas and Florida, where you, for the most part, cannot. Sure they might not be commuting anymore (which was likely by public transit anyway), but they are now driving several times a day, likely relatively far distances, when they were not before.

sanderjd 5y ago
This seems like a sample bias. Even if lots of people here who have moved used to commute by public transit, the reality is that most people commute by car. Reducing commuting is generally a very good thing.
- ravitation 5y ago
  Eliminating the commute, when it is replaced by living in a suburb with essentially no access to services without driving (especially when there was access before), can still be a net negative... That's the point of the anecdote...
  - sanderjd 5y ago
    Yes I know. My point is that I think it's unlikely that anything comes out behind eliminating commutes. Even "essentially no access to services" is closer access to services than the common exurban commuting distance.
    - ravitation 5y ago
      I mean you responded as if you think I was using HN comments as a representative sample and not as an illustrative anecdote... > Even "essentially no access to services" is closer access to services than the common exurban commuting distance. Okay... But it's not a one-to-one replacement... A single two-way commute might be replaced by significant drives to the grocery store, restaurants, schools, after-school activities, etc... Honestly, despite all of this discussion, I think the idea that commutes will be broadly eliminated long-term is the bigger assumption than general suburban driving being a net positive compared to commuting or vice versa.
      - sanderjd 5y ago
        I think it's very likely that commuting to white collar jobs is in the process of undergoing a very significant and lasting change. The magnitude of it remains to be seen, but even significant changes on the margin can drive structural shifts.
deleted 5y ago
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sanderjd 5y ago

This seems like a sample bias. Even if lots of people here who have moved used to commute by public transit, the reality is that most people commute by car. Reducing commuting is generally a very good thing.

ravitation 5y ago
Eliminating the commute, when it is replaced by living in a suburb with essentially no access to services without driving (especially when there was access before), can still be a net negative... That's the point of the anecdote...
- sanderjd 5y ago
  Yes I know. My point is that I think it's unlikely that anything comes out behind eliminating commutes. Even "essentially no access to services" is closer access to services than the common exurban commuting distance.
  - ravitation 5y ago
    I mean you responded as if you think I was using HN comments as a representative sample and not as an illustrative anecdote... > Even "essentially no access to services" is closer access to services than the common exurban commuting distance. Okay... But it's not a one-to-one replacement... A single two-way commute might be replaced by significant drives to the grocery store, restaurants, schools, after-school activities, etc... Honestly, despite all of this discussion, I think the idea that commutes will be broadly eliminated long-term is the bigger assumption than general suburban driving being a net positive compared to commuting or vice versa.
    - sanderjd 5y ago
      I think it's very likely that commuting to white collar jobs is in the process of undergoing a very significant and lasting change. The magnitude of it remains to be seen, but even significant changes on the margin can drive structural shifts.

deleted 5y ago

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