8 ms·

I've heard this brought up as a kind of second round of white flight. The middle- and upper-class (primarily) white population is once again moving out of urban

I've heard this brought up as a kind of second round of white flight. The middle- and upper-class (primarily) white population is once again moving out of urban centers because telecommuting is something that these high-salary jobs afford them. I think it will rebound a bit (but not much), as moving from urban to suburban is a very difficult transition, but its even harder going the other way once you've adjusted. I miss living in NYC, but I'm actually looking to retire in the next few years, and pick up some remote land that I can settle with Starlink, and live off a VERY modest retirement (WELL under a million saved/invested) for the next 40 years. My retirement will look vastly different from my parents, as I will still work (building web apps, games, furniture, whatever tickles my fancy), just not for anyone but myself.

itsyaboi 5y ago
I've entertained the same idea from time to time, but just don't see how it can work out financially. What is your contingency plan for medical expenses? Kids? Btw, big fan of your blog posts.
- jermaustin1 5y ago
  So in rural America you definitely give up access to top-notch medical care, but I'm relatively healthy currently, and if we drop our household income, we start to qualify for subsidies. My wife only just started her career, 17 years into our relationship, so she's going to start ramping up income over the next few years, and that will hopefully cover any unforeseen issues. I actually tried retiring this year. I paid to go to university in the UK in a very cheap place to live, but we had a few people in our family pass, and we decided while everyone is aging, we should stick around. >big fan of your blog posts. That is so kind of you to say. I'm a big fan of writing them... once or twice a year when I finally remember a story worthy of writing.
  - throwaway6734 5y ago
    >if we drop our household income, we start to qualify for subsidies Yuck
    - jermaustin1 5y ago
      I've paid quite a bit in taxes over the years, should I not be allowed to extract value from them when I'm no longer earning enough to cover my basic expenses (especially expenses like health care???)
      - throwaway6734 5y ago
        The point of a social safety net is catch people falling through the cracks that are unable to support themselves. Using social safety programs when you are able bodied leaves less for those that are unable to do so
        jermaustin1 5y ago
        And in America we are all one unexpected medical expense away from bankruptcy. I'm not going to toil my life away doing things I hate just because America's safety net has been defunded by a bunch of people who view gainful employment no matter how unnecessary the job is as the only way to get to Heaven.
        throwaway6734 5y ago
        >And in America we are all one unexpected medical expense away from bankruptcy. How do subsidies help then? And people like you are a fantastic political talking point for why the social safety net routinely gets defunded.
        jermaustin1 5y ago
        That is untrue... I will be continuing to work for myself and hopefully increase my income, but the safety net is there if I don't quite hit my mark. This is the same with anyone. Trust me: I WANT money. I LIKE money. But if I cannot earn enough, I'm more than happy to take from the benefits I have spent a lot of money to fund. I also vote regularly to increase taxes and to expand funding for the social safety net, so that it is available anytime ANYONE has to pull from it.
  - cheese_van 5y ago
    It is not necessarily the case that one gives up good med care in rural America. I live in a suburb of an 8000 person city (town?) and med care is top notch. I do believe that anywhere one chooses to live there are compromises. Those compromises, if you do your homework, are up to you. We have zero violent crime, and no fear of our neighbors. However, there are raccoons. Restaurants exist, but they are exceptionally mediocre. We have grocery stores, however, and one learns to cook. A car is indeed a necessity. The terrain is hilly and a bike riding is exhausting. Children are free roaming. Bicycle gangs of laughing children invade day napping. The unstated pressure to maintain one's lawn is intense, ridiculous and mildly fascist. I comply grudgingly. One has fish and game on speed dial in the event wild animals misbehave. Strangers may wave at you from their cars if you are walking. It is unsettling. There is a smaller pool of craftsmen and tradesmen to fix your shit and they will stick it to you. People would rather talk about weather than politics. It is difficult to identify those who deserve to be politically shunned, so one must instead judge their diligence regarding lawn care. One can lead a life of quiet desperation, or enjoyment, in either the city or the country.
    - lotsofpulp 5y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trauma_center https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trauma_center Being near a level 1 trauma center can make a big difference in extreme circumstances. Not that it is objectively worth giving up whatever benefits not being near a level 1 trauma center bring, but it does provide a material difference in the level of healthcare and hence probability of outcomes you can expect.
Jerrrry 5y ago
Many like you are buying up lake-front properties in rural places. I recommend it, playing farmer-cowboy-houseboateer in Kentucky/Tennessee is a magnitude cheaper than out west, even if you fail, you are out less money than simply living elsewhere.
- ethbr0 5y ago
  Just learn the accent before you move there, and don't tell your neighbors where you're from.
  - hagbard_c 5y ago
    Also don't vote for the policies which made you pick up your bags and leave the place you came from or your new place of residence will eventually start to look like the one you left.
    - vineyardmike 5y ago
      A lot of the "California problem" policies work at smaller city sizes and just fail when scaled to major city/metro, so would be great at a lot of those smaller towns. Especially because they can be more humane and well thought out than whatever that town had to start.
      - hagbard_c 5y ago
        > they can be more humane and well thought out than whatever that town had to start. In other words, you'll go to those small towns to teach those hicks some manners. No wonder they're not that keen on seeing refugees from "more humane and well thought out" places settle in their towns and villages. If that is your message to your new neighbours may I suggest you go somewhere more welcoming of those "humane and well thought out" policies? It is a sad thing that those places tend to be the ones people are moving away from but that means there should be lots of vacancies.
        5y ago
skrowl 5y ago
> white flight I was wondering how far I'd have to go into comments to find the first "MuH RaacCiissS!" comment. Found it hanging as a sub comment off the first comment. I was not disappointed!
onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
> and live off a VERY modest retirement (WELL under a million saved/invested) for the next 40 years Do you mind sharing how much? I'm curious why most people seem to think $1M is somehow not enough money to retire modestly on. If previous trends continue, you could easily live on >$4K after taxes per month indefinitely. That's almost 50% higher than median wage (after taxes). Median wage = ~$41,000. Even with $0 state tax, just after federal tax, you're at ~$30,000. At this income, you likely can't deduct more than the standard deduction... It's just obvious that you CAN live on 50% more than median wage. Yet at the same time, so many people seem to think this is some absurd proposition. Even at $500k - you can draw down the same amount for ~10 years, and then rely on SS (which would be much more modest - although, obviously still completely doable considering almost half the senior population does it). Also - a lot of people still do something that makes money in retirement...
- jermaustin1 5y ago
  > Do you mind sharing how much? The current (November 31) valuation of my assets is almost $200k. That isn't counting debts (which are small, but still exist), and that isn't counting the assets or value of my consulting company (which unaudited is around $50k). I'm hoping to stash away another $150-200k over the next couple of years to really make my retirement last. But either way, it isn't THAT hard to have a working retirement on < $500k. You aren't rich, but you are financially secure enough to chose what you want to do.
- long_time_gone 5y ago
  The "4% rule" [1] would recommend pulling out $40,000 each year if you had $1 million. This is the amount you can draw down each year without ever depleting the $1 million. The theory is that after you draw down your $40k, the remaining $960k will grow enough to get you back to $1 million by next year's draw down. You can still live on $3,333/month, (especially since this person plans to keep working and there is likely some social security after age 67) but wanted to add some context. [1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-4-rule-is-being-debated-again-but-heres-what-you-should-do-11636999447 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-4-rule-is-being-debate...
- sokoloff 5y ago
nobodyandproud 5y ago
How do you manage medical care? Of all the things I have planned, this is the only variable I don’t have an answer for because Medicare kicks in at 65. The market-based plans are either useless (few hundred dollars a month); or expensive (a couple of thousand per month).
- jermaustin1 5y ago
  Currently, it is by paying $850/mo for health insurance for my wife and I. In the future I hope that my CoL expenses drop enough that the cost is fine while I continue to work for a lot less income, or if not, that my wife and I would qualify for subsidies on the marketplace.

itsyaboi 5y ago

I've entertained the same idea from time to time, but just don't see how it can work out financially. What is your contingency plan for medical expenses? Kids? Btw, big fan of your blog posts.

jermaustin1 5y ago
So in rural America you definitely give up access to top-notch medical care, but I'm relatively healthy currently, and if we drop our household income, we start to qualify for subsidies. My wife only just started her career, 17 years into our relationship, so she's going to start ramping up income over the next few years, and that will hopefully cover any unforeseen issues. I actually tried retiring this year. I paid to go to university in the UK in a very cheap place to live, but we had a few people in our family pass, and we decided while everyone is aging, we should stick around. >big fan of your blog posts. That is so kind of you to say. I'm a big fan of writing them... once or twice a year when I finally remember a story worthy of writing.
- throwaway6734 5y ago
  >if we drop our household income, we start to qualify for subsidies Yuck
  - jermaustin1 5y ago
    I've paid quite a bit in taxes over the years, should I not be allowed to extract value from them when I'm no longer earning enough to cover my basic expenses (especially expenses like health care???)
    - throwaway6734 5y ago
      The point of a social safety net is catch people falling through the cracks that are unable to support themselves. Using social safety programs when you are able bodied leaves less for those that are unable to do so
      - jermaustin1 5y ago
        And in America we are all one unexpected medical expense away from bankruptcy. I'm not going to toil my life away doing things I hate just because America's safety net has been defunded by a bunch of people who view gainful employment no matter how unnecessary the job is as the only way to get to Heaven.
        throwaway6734 5y ago
        >And in America we are all one unexpected medical expense away from bankruptcy. How do subsidies help then? And people like you are a fantastic political talking point for why the social safety net routinely gets defunded.
        jermaustin1 5y ago
        That is untrue... I will be continuing to work for myself and hopefully increase my income, but the safety net is there if I don't quite hit my mark. This is the same with anyone. Trust me: I WANT money. I LIKE money. But if I cannot earn enough, I'm more than happy to take from the benefits I have spent a lot of money to fund. I also vote regularly to increase taxes and to expand funding for the social safety net, so that it is available anytime ANYONE has to pull from it.
- cheese_van 5y ago
  It is not necessarily the case that one gives up good med care in rural America. I live in a suburb of an 8000 person city (town?) and med care is top notch. I do believe that anywhere one chooses to live there are compromises. Those compromises, if you do your homework, are up to you. We have zero violent crime, and no fear of our neighbors. However, there are raccoons. Restaurants exist, but they are exceptionally mediocre. We have grocery stores, however, and one learns to cook. A car is indeed a necessity. The terrain is hilly and a bike riding is exhausting. Children are free roaming. Bicycle gangs of laughing children invade day napping. The unstated pressure to maintain one's lawn is intense, ridiculous and mildly fascist. I comply grudgingly. One has fish and game on speed dial in the event wild animals misbehave. Strangers may wave at you from their cars if you are walking. It is unsettling. There is a smaller pool of craftsmen and tradesmen to fix your shit and they will stick it to you. People would rather talk about weather than politics. It is difficult to identify those who deserve to be politically shunned, so one must instead judge their diligence regarding lawn care. One can lead a life of quiet desperation, or enjoyment, in either the city or the country.
  - lotsofpulp 5y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trauma_center https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trauma_center Being near a level 1 trauma center can make a big difference in extreme circumstances. Not that it is objectively worth giving up whatever benefits not being near a level 1 trauma center bring, but it does provide a material difference in the level of healthcare and hence probability of outcomes you can expect.

Jerrrry 5y ago

Many like you are buying up lake-front properties in rural places. I recommend it, playing farmer-cowboy-houseboateer in Kentucky/Tennessee is a magnitude cheaper than out west, even if you fail, you are out less money than simply living elsewhere.

ethbr0 5y ago
Just learn the accent before you move there, and don't tell your neighbors where you're from.
- hagbard_c 5y ago
  Also don't vote for the policies which made you pick up your bags and leave the place you came from or your new place of residence will eventually start to look like the one you left.
  - vineyardmike 5y ago
    A lot of the "California problem" policies work at smaller city sizes and just fail when scaled to major city/metro, so would be great at a lot of those smaller towns. Especially because they can be more humane and well thought out than whatever that town had to start.
    - hagbard_c 5y ago
      > they can be more humane and well thought out than whatever that town had to start. In other words, you'll go to those small towns to teach those hicks some manners. No wonder they're not that keen on seeing refugees from "more humane and well thought out" places settle in their towns and villages. If that is your message to your new neighbours may I suggest you go somewhere more welcoming of those "humane and well thought out" policies? It is a sad thing that those places tend to be the ones people are moving away from but that means there should be lots of vacancies.
      - 5y ago

skrowl 5y ago

> white flight I was wondering how far I'd have to go into comments to find the first "MuH RaacCiissS!" comment. Found it hanging as a sub comment off the first comment. I was not disappointed!

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago

> and live off a VERY modest retirement (WELL under a million saved/invested) for the next 40 years Do you mind sharing how much? I'm curious why most people seem to think $1M is somehow not enough money to retire modestly on. If previous trends continue, you could easily live on >$4K after taxes per month indefinitely. That's almost 50% higher than median wage (after taxes). Median wage = ~$41,000. Even with $0 state tax, just after federal tax, you're at ~$30,000. At this income, you likely can't deduct more than the standard deduction... It's just obvious that you CAN live on 50% more than median wage. Yet at the same time, so many people seem to think this is some absurd proposition. Even at $500k - you can draw down the same amount for ~10 years, and then rely on SS (which would be much more modest - although, obviously still completely doable considering almost half the senior population does it). Also - a lot of people still do something that makes money in retirement...

jermaustin1 5y ago
> Do you mind sharing how much? The current (November 31) valuation of my assets is almost $200k. That isn't counting debts (which are small, but still exist), and that isn't counting the assets or value of my consulting company (which unaudited is around $50k). I'm hoping to stash away another $150-200k over the next couple of years to really make my retirement last. But either way, it isn't THAT hard to have a working retirement on < $500k. You aren't rich, but you are financially secure enough to chose what you want to do.
long_time_gone 5y ago
The "4% rule" [1] would recommend pulling out $40,000 each year if you had $1 million. This is the amount you can draw down each year without ever depleting the $1 million. The theory is that after you draw down your $40k, the remaining $960k will grow enough to get you back to $1 million by next year's draw down. You can still live on $3,333/month, (especially since this person plans to keep working and there is likely some social security after age 67) but wanted to add some context. [1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-4-rule-is-being-debated-again-but-heres-what-you-should-do-11636999447 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-4-rule-is-being-debate...
sokoloff 5y ago

nobodyandproud 5y ago

How do you manage medical care? Of all the things I have planned, this is the only variable I don’t have an answer for because Medicare kicks in at 65. The market-based plans are either useless (few hundred dollars a month); or expensive (a couple of thousand per month).

jermaustin1 5y ago
Currently, it is by paying $850/mo for health insurance for my wife and I. In the future I hope that my CoL expenses drop enough that the cost is fine while I continue to work for a lot less income, or if not, that my wife and I would qualify for subsidies on the marketplace.