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I'm with you on this being a possibility, but I'm curious if you have a couple specific numbers that I'd want to better evaluate this possibility. It of course
by margalabargala 5y ago
I'm with you on this being a possibility, but I'm curious if you have a couple specific numbers that I'd want to better evaluate this possibility.
It of course costs energy to create solar panels and wind turbines (let's ignore nuclear for now), but the energy output potential of a given solar panel over its lifetime isn't really inherently tied to the energy required to produce it. Theoretically production of these devices should become significantly more efficient at certain levels of scale, and if solar panels production were to increase by 10x, the amount of energy needed to produce those panels would increase by some other smaller multiplier.
Given that people presumably can see this coming, it makes sense that some entrepreneurs will take advantage of the current climate of relatively cheap power to create and stockpile energy production capacity in anticipation of the failing of fossil fuels from an EROEI perspective. This, combined with ample opportunity for additional hydroelectric development if we're willing to sacrifice certain riparian ecosystems, makes me think that electricity generation itself will not really fall, and instead the problem will mainly be seen with things that require dense, portable energy i.e. airlines.
- spurgu 5y agoHere's a refreshing read on some of the issues with solar specifically: https://doomberg.substack.com/p/herbie-spoils-the-party https://doomberg.substack.com/p/herbie-spoils-the-party
- margalabargala 5y agoGreat article, thanks. Something that occurs to me- currently, the main way that countries with an excess of electricity export that excess is via smelting aluminum (Tiwai in NZ and Hafnarfjörður in Iceland, for example). It looks like it costs about $1.5 billion and takes ~2 years to create a new large polysilicon plant. Perhaps we'll see some of these places with an excess of unrealized hydroelectric capacity moving towards polysilicon production rather than aluminum. Looks like the polysilicon plant in Washington (also an area with a lot of hydro power) is being restarted: https://www.bernreuter.com/newsroom/polysilicon-news/article/rec-silicon-planning-to-restart-its-plant-in-moses-lake-in-2022/ https://www.bernreuter.com/newsroom/polysilicon-news/article...