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The predictions from the model all match up in line with the parts of the model predicting an increase in various metrics, but the crux of the model, the inflec
by bart_spoon 5y ago
The predictions from the model all match up in line with the parts of the model predicting an increase in various metrics, but the crux of the model, the inflection point and collapse, all have yet to occur yet. In other words, there would be nothing to prove that this model is any better or worse than a model that predicts these metrics continue to increase indefinitely.
- actually_a_dog 5y agoThe fact that there is good agreement between the model and real world data extending 40 years past its creation should, at least, raise your prior probability that the model is correct enough to be useful. If not, you're just being irrational.