7 ms·

Right, because all these models are just that: models, and very simple ones at that. They encode a few functions, often linear, when the thing they model are e

Right, because all these models are just that: models, and very simple ones at that. They encode a few functions, often linear, when the thing they model are enormously complex and dynamic. Humans generally fail to grasp the non-linear and the dynamic. The Malthusian model is: more food supply -> more humans -> more food demand -> more food supply -> more humans -> ... A vicious circle. A positive feedback loop. But it's a positive feedback loop operating in machine with negative feedback loops too. It's been over a decade since it's been understood that global human population is going to plateau in just three more decades, then begin declining. Reasons for that are myriad, but if I had to summarize it it would look like this: low child mortality + high life expectancy + high standards of living + high taxes and costs + high retirement costs == low interest in reproduction -- i.e., price signalling works! Who would have thunk it? Not Malthusian modellers, for sure.

rsj_hn 5y ago
I remember the Club of Rome was the first to do these models, assuming peak oil and the collapse of western civilization based on resource constraints. They would have these coupled differential equations, similar to predator-prey, calculating cost of extracting resources and the resulting declines in food production and thus population. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_of_Rome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_of_Rome But I thought all of that had fallen out of fashion by the early 1980s when oil prices fell and it was discovered that you don't have stable relationships or known parameters for most of this stuff.
- cryptonector 5y ago
  Exactly. You can have very sophisticated, non-linear, dynamic models developed over many years by brilliant people, then still see the models fail miserably.
- dredmorbius 5y ago
  World3, implemented in the Python module submitted here, is the Club of Rome model.
coolspot 5y ago
> high standards of living + high taxes and costs + high retirement costs Add unsustainable mining/fishing/farming/pollution to feed/dress/entertain all those people with high standards of living. Now you will see the plateu eventually, yes. But it’s not a natural plateu where we stop because we want chill life, but plateu where we stop because there are no resources (everything is expensive) to support our kids.
- nefitty 5y ago
  You're not taking into account technological and industrial innovation. Presumably there will be new ideas iterated upon that get us closer to universal abundance. My main concerns over the next few decades are cyberwar collapse (< 1% chance), runaway AI (10% chance), robotized world war (30% chance), and solar flare induced societal collapse (40% chance). Yeah, cereal is 20% more expensive but DeepMind just beat GPT3.
  - RealityVoid 5y ago
    I wonder why solar flare societal collapse ranks so high on your list.
    - xsarin 5y ago
      Society is so incredibly dependent on technology that is not EMP resistant and if a solar flare knocks out most of our electronics the bottom is going to fall out. No phones or internet to figure out what's going on, no cars since the onboard electronics are needed- same with trucks, trains etc. Can't go to the grocery store and buy food with your debit card, can't get cash from the bank, grocery store isn't going to get shipments anymore etc. Our dependence on it all puts us on really fragile ground given that we know there have been sun events in the last 150 years that would obliterate everything we have today
      - RealityVoid 5y ago
        I have read that the dangers of EMP's are greatly overstated and they could damage stuff, but mostly the power grid, since you need long lines to induce sufficient power for it to matter.
mdp2021 5y ago
('thunk': «from an 1876 glossary of words in the mid-Yorkshire dialect in Britain», presumably jocular. Used by Joyce: “I thunk I told you” (Finnegans Wake); “Have a good old thunk.” (Ulysses) Does not come, as one may suppose, from a jocular integration from the area of the onomatopeic "thunk", which is 1952. Interesting. Considered in grammarphobia.com )
- cryptonector 5y ago
  It's a purposeful misspelling of "thought". It's fun to use it once in a while.

rsj_hn 5y ago

I remember the Club of Rome was the first to do these models, assuming peak oil and the collapse of western civilization based on resource constraints. They would have these coupled differential equations, similar to predator-prey, calculating cost of extracting resources and the resulting declines in food production and thus population. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_of_Rome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_of_Rome But I thought all of that had fallen out of fashion by the early 1980s when oil prices fell and it was discovered that you don't have stable relationships or known parameters for most of this stuff.

cryptonector 5y ago
Exactly. You can have very sophisticated, non-linear, dynamic models developed over many years by brilliant people, then still see the models fail miserably.
dredmorbius 5y ago
World3, implemented in the Python module submitted here, is the Club of Rome model.

coolspot 5y ago

> high standards of living + high taxes and costs + high retirement costs Add unsustainable mining/fishing/farming/pollution to feed/dress/entertain all those people with high standards of living. Now you will see the plateu eventually, yes. But it’s not a natural plateu where we stop because we want chill life, but plateu where we stop because there are no resources (everything is expensive) to support our kids.

nefitty 5y ago
You're not taking into account technological and industrial innovation. Presumably there will be new ideas iterated upon that get us closer to universal abundance. My main concerns over the next few decades are cyberwar collapse (< 1% chance), runaway AI (10% chance), robotized world war (30% chance), and solar flare induced societal collapse (40% chance). Yeah, cereal is 20% more expensive but DeepMind just beat GPT3.
- RealityVoid 5y ago
  I wonder why solar flare societal collapse ranks so high on your list.
  - xsarin 5y ago
    Society is so incredibly dependent on technology that is not EMP resistant and if a solar flare knocks out most of our electronics the bottom is going to fall out. No phones or internet to figure out what's going on, no cars since the onboard electronics are needed- same with trucks, trains etc. Can't go to the grocery store and buy food with your debit card, can't get cash from the bank, grocery store isn't going to get shipments anymore etc. Our dependence on it all puts us on really fragile ground given that we know there have been sun events in the last 150 years that would obliterate everything we have today
    - RealityVoid 5y ago
      I have read that the dangers of EMP's are greatly overstated and they could damage stuff, but mostly the power grid, since you need long lines to induce sufficient power for it to matter.

mdp2021 5y ago

('thunk': «from an 1876 glossary of words in the mid-Yorkshire dialect in Britain», presumably jocular. Used by Joyce: “I thunk I told you” (Finnegans Wake); “Have a good old thunk.” (Ulysses) Does not come, as one may suppose, from a jocular integration from the area of the onomatopeic "thunk", which is 1952. Interesting. Considered in grammarphobia.com )

cryptonector 5y ago
It's a purposeful misspelling of "thought". It's fun to use it once in a while.