4 ms·

More like 2015 from what I read in those graphs.

xwdv 5y ago
Is it possible than when civilization collapses we can only really realize it in hindsight? Kind of like how the only way to really know we went through a recession or depression is after the fact or at some point during it? Maybe we are already living in post-collapse.
- ncmncm 5y ago
  US life expectancy has started down. That could be a consequence of absurdly inflated sugar intake (without adequate fiber) causing Metabolic Syndrome that causes a host of different acute, often enough fatal ills. But persuading Americans to ditch sugar and eat more fat will be a hard sell after so much propaganda against the has spilled.
  - cbzbc 5y ago
    Interestingly life expectancy in the U.K. is also down, and it may be no coincidence that both countries have increasingly high levels of inequality post crisis.
    - ncmncm 5y ago
      UK sugar consumption is also high. And alcohol, which has similar effects.
- bart_spoon 5y ago
  One (of the many) problems with predicting a societal collapse is the word itself, "collapse", being incredibly vague. What would define a collapse? For most it seems to conjure up visions of apocalyptic disasters. But it could potentially be a long, drawn out change to the trajectories of many metrics surrounding human population and economic activity. Who knows? I doubt we will even be able to define what a "collapse" is, let alone predict when that collapse might occur using modeling techniques.
- awb 5y ago
  In a true collapse I’d imagine almost every aspect of life is worse than the year before which sounds measurable and detectable. But maybe a point of no return would be harder to detect. Like health is improving but resources are dropping to unrecoverable levels.
  - pilsetnieks 5y ago
    Are most aspects of life better than in 2015 right now?
    - bart_spoon 5y ago
      5 years seems like far too small of a window to accurately assess this. Was life better in 2010 than 2005? How about 1977 vs 1972? Or 1803 and 1798? A much longer time frame will be required to determine if life is improving over time for people or not. Possibly on the scale of generations.
    - pphysch 5y ago
      In some countries
    - awb 5y ago
      Compared to 2015? Yeah our technology is better, our shared knowledge is increasing, population is increasing, etc. In a collapse, I’d expect to see near 0 investment in new technology with more energy going into basic survival and trying to protect a declining population. If you think we’re in a setback, decline, etc., maybe, but when I think collapse, I think a “Guns, Germs & Steel” / Easter Island type event.
      - TrispusAttucks 5y ago
        Collapse is a process. Not an event.
        awb 5y ago
        Sure, but you can recover from a decline, you can’t recover from a collapse. From Wikipedia: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse Here’s the definition: > the loss of cultural identity and of socioeconomic complexity, the downfall of government, and the rise of violence And it isn’t usually a slow process: > Societal collapse is generally quick So for Western civilization or the US to truly collapse it means a complete loss of cultural identity, destruction of the economy, no government and tons of violence. Even war torn countries rarely collapse because even if the government is removed, violence spikes and the economy stops working the people can still maintain a sense of common shared culture and identity and avoid collapse. I guess it becomes more of a rebirth or evolution at that point. I think a lot of people see 1 sign of collapse and think it’s a collapse, but it’s actually just a decline or an oscillation.
- TrispusAttucks 5y ago
  Yes. Slow collapse is a thing. https://www.letstalkthis.com/collapse/ https://www.letstalkthis.com/collapse/
- pmontra 5y ago
  Of course historians from 3000 AD could say that western civilization collapsed on the day of the Hiroshima bomb, or 9/11, or the year of Covid, or who knows when. Anything that fits their political goals would do.

xwdv 5y ago

Is it possible than when civilization collapses we can only really realize it in hindsight? Kind of like how the only way to really know we went through a recession or depression is after the fact or at some point during it? Maybe we are already living in post-collapse.

ncmncm 5y ago
US life expectancy has started down. That could be a consequence of absurdly inflated sugar intake (without adequate fiber) causing Metabolic Syndrome that causes a host of different acute, often enough fatal ills. But persuading Americans to ditch sugar and eat more fat will be a hard sell after so much propaganda against the has spilled.
- cbzbc 5y ago
  Interestingly life expectancy in the U.K. is also down, and it may be no coincidence that both countries have increasingly high levels of inequality post crisis.
  - ncmncm 5y ago
    UK sugar consumption is also high. And alcohol, which has similar effects.
bart_spoon 5y ago
One (of the many) problems with predicting a societal collapse is the word itself, "collapse", being incredibly vague. What would define a collapse? For most it seems to conjure up visions of apocalyptic disasters. But it could potentially be a long, drawn out change to the trajectories of many metrics surrounding human population and economic activity. Who knows? I doubt we will even be able to define what a "collapse" is, let alone predict when that collapse might occur using modeling techniques.
awb 5y ago
In a true collapse I’d imagine almost every aspect of life is worse than the year before which sounds measurable and detectable. But maybe a point of no return would be harder to detect. Like health is improving but resources are dropping to unrecoverable levels.
- pilsetnieks 5y ago
  Are most aspects of life better than in 2015 right now?
  - bart_spoon 5y ago
    5 years seems like far too small of a window to accurately assess this. Was life better in 2010 than 2005? How about 1977 vs 1972? Or 1803 and 1798? A much longer time frame will be required to determine if life is improving over time for people or not. Possibly on the scale of generations.
  - pphysch 5y ago
    In some countries
  - awb 5y ago
    Compared to 2015? Yeah our technology is better, our shared knowledge is increasing, population is increasing, etc. In a collapse, I’d expect to see near 0 investment in new technology with more energy going into basic survival and trying to protect a declining population. If you think we’re in a setback, decline, etc., maybe, but when I think collapse, I think a “Guns, Germs & Steel” / Easter Island type event.
    - TrispusAttucks 5y ago
      Collapse is a process. Not an event.
      - awb 5y ago
        Sure, but you can recover from a decline, you can’t recover from a collapse. From Wikipedia: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse Here’s the definition: > the loss of cultural identity and of socioeconomic complexity, the downfall of government, and the rise of violence And it isn’t usually a slow process: > Societal collapse is generally quick So for Western civilization or the US to truly collapse it means a complete loss of cultural identity, destruction of the economy, no government and tons of violence. Even war torn countries rarely collapse because even if the government is removed, violence spikes and the economy stops working the people can still maintain a sense of common shared culture and identity and avoid collapse. I guess it becomes more of a rebirth or evolution at that point. I think a lot of people see 1 sign of collapse and think it’s a collapse, but it’s actually just a decline or an oscillation.
TrispusAttucks 5y ago
Yes. Slow collapse is a thing. https://www.letstalkthis.com/collapse/ https://www.letstalkthis.com/collapse/
pmontra 5y ago
Of course historians from 3000 AD could say that western civilization collapsed on the day of the Hiroshima bomb, or 9/11, or the year of Covid, or who knows when. Anything that fits their political goals would do.