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It's not really, look at it like this: it takes people 65 years from birth to dependence. That means every generation has to deal with 47 years of fertility dec
by candiodari 5y ago
It's not really, look at it like this: it takes people 65 years from birth to dependence. That means every generation has to deal with 47 years of fertility decline before getting a pension. Right now there's about 1 dependent per 1 working person in most of the western world. In 20 or so years that'll be 2 dependents per 1 working person, and it'll go over 5 in most of Europe before 2050, less than 40 years, and actually earlier in Eastern Europe. Even in the US it's definitely going to 2 dependents per 1 working person. For one thing that means the current level of tax pays for either the military OR pensions in 20 years, not both, and even 100% tax in the US won't pay for both.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Fertility_statistics https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...
And this isn't a "print your way out of this" situation. At minimum, every child and elderly person is going to have to do with half as many humans providing services like education or medical services to them. It's real humans that we are short on, not some made up quantity like money. You could print $100 trillion per year and spend it entirely on elderly care, and we'd still have to deal with the reduction of workers per elderly.
Anyone working today will not have people taking care of you when they retire at the current rates. Half as much time as today, probably a lot less.
We're actually close to the tipping point in Europe:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1251591/population-growth-rate-in-europe/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1251591/population-growt...
If someone's paying attention, Europe will need another Syria and Afghanistan soon. Perhaps in North Africa?
- jgwil2 5y agoThat's assuming a lot of people aren't currently working bullshit jobs or things that we can't automate though. I suspect that if we have a real worker shortage we'll find there's a lot we can do without or do more efficiently.