3 ms·

It might be worth reviewing this essay from aaronsw: http://www.aaronsw.com/weblog/theoryofchange http://www.aaronsw.com/weblog/theoryofchange Mainly because c

It might be worth reviewing this essay from aaronsw: http://www.aaronsw.com/weblog/theoryofchange http://www.aaronsw.com/weblog/theoryofchange Mainly because calls to action are often about whipping up passion about an issue, without often doing the work to identify the actions that would actually be productive.

wenc 5y ago
This is good. I relate to it because Theory of Change sounds like a form of future backwards thinking, or working backwards, for non-profits or social movements. It is difficult strategy to apply well, but that pays off tremendously to those who are able to do it. It doesn't guarantee success but at least it stacks the odds in your favor. Aaron Swartz's example of working backwards to figure out how to write a bestseller is not too different from Youtubers working backwards to figure what content to make that will generate views. It's about identifying the concrete steps that will take you from one state to the next, finally culminating in the goal. The one thing missing from this approach however, is an explicit treatment of feedback loops (or "reflexivity" -- something which Soros claims to have applied to economic systems). It's a different way of thinking, but people who grasp systems and feedback loops often have a more realistic understanding of the world than people who think linearly and simplistically. When you work backwards, you can't just think of what you need to do to get there, but also the 5-6 other 2nd, 3rd or higher order effects that will occur (including an accounting of adversarial forces). These will have unintended consequences that can either help or impede you. You need to find ways to enter positive feedback loops and exit negative ones. If you're able to enter a positive feedback loop, you'll have a flywheel that will amplify itself.

3 ms·

It might be worth reviewing this essay from aaronsw: http://www.aaronsw.com/weblog/theoryofchange http://www.aaronsw.com/weblog/theoryofchange Mainly because c

by tunesmith 5y ago

wenc 5y ago
This is good. I relate to it because Theory of Change sounds like a form of future backwards thinking, or working backwards, for non-profits or social movements. It is difficult strategy to apply well, but that pays off tremendously to those who are able to do it. It doesn't guarantee success but at least it stacks the odds in your favor. Aaron Swartz's example of working backwards to figure out how to write a bestseller is not too different from Youtubers working backwards to figure what content to make that will generate views. It's about identifying the concrete steps that will take you from one state to the next, finally culminating in the goal. The one thing missing from this approach however, is an explicit treatment of feedback loops (or "reflexivity" -- something which Soros claims to have applied to economic systems). It's a different way of thinking, but people who grasp systems and feedback loops often have a more realistic understanding of the world than people who think linearly and simplistically. When you work backwards, you can't just think of what you need to do to get there, but also the 5-6 other 2nd, 3rd or higher order effects that will occur (including an accounting of adversarial forces). These will have unintended consequences that can either help or impede you. You need to find ways to enter positive feedback loops and exit negative ones. If you're able to enter a positive feedback loop, you'll have a flywheel that will amplify itself.