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I think about it, but I'm not to the point of buying a piece of land and building a basement and growing a vegetable garden... There have always been risks, be

by toumhi 15y ago

I think about it, but I'm not to the point of buying a piece of land and building a basement and growing a vegetable garden... There have always been risks, before it was wars, lately the cold war or terrorism, now peak oil, economic collapse etc. I don't see any contradiction with being entrepreneur at the moment. Physical growth may be limited but the demand for services is not. If you're interested in "collapse discussions", you should check out http://www.reddit.com/r/collapse http://www.reddit.com/r/collapse (not to read if you're the worrying type though ;-))

david927 15y ago
Here's how it's different now: A lot of the progress of the 20th century was predicated on cheap oil. With a Return on Energy (ROE is like ROI but for energy; how much energy you get vs. how much you need to get it out) of 30 to 1, crude oil essentially still gushes from the ground. After a certain point, even for the same reserve, that ROE drops. There's still oil, but it's harder to get out. We'll always have oil, but we won't have it cheaply for much longer. Converting to an alternative is possible but it will take time and pain. And that's the sticking point. America especially relies on a JIT inventory of trucked-in goods, cars to get to work, school, the store, etc. The switch will be ugly. Piggybacking on that is the long, wonderful period of growth that had us overextend. The Great Depression also came after a period of over-extension, but back then we had yet to tap our resources and our debt. We've tapped both out at the start of this depression that's coming. Add to it the increased demand for resources from China, India and the rest of the world. We're out. Bacteria is at its greatest expansion when it hits the edge of the petri dish, and in an instant, it's over. I won't plant a garden or buy a gun -- I don't think it will ever be so bad -- but for a while, during the process of converting to alternate energies and transportation mechanisms, it won't be fun.
- toumhi 15y ago
  True. I'm not denying the fact the risks are different from past risks, the situation is a new one indeed. I was pointing out that there have been risks (of a different type) and there are risks now. I still think investing in yourself by learning, pursuing business interests is justifiable even in light of these risks. In terms of adapting to a changing world as an individual, I think being either self-reliant or being close to major population centres (access to jobs, public transportation etc) are both good strategies. It might be good to learn some martial arts, how to defend yourself, learn to live with less etc.

by toumhi 15y ago

david927 15y ago

Here's how it's different now: A lot of the progress of the 20th century was predicated on cheap oil. With a Return on Energy (ROE is like ROI but for energy; how much energy you get vs. how much you need to get it out) of 30 to 1, crude oil essentially still gushes from the ground. After a certain point, even for the same reserve, that ROE drops. There's still oil, but it's harder to get out. We'll always have oil, but we won't have it cheaply for much longer. Converting to an alternative is possible but it will take time and pain. And that's the sticking point. America especially relies on a JIT inventory of trucked-in goods, cars to get to work, school, the store, etc. The switch will be ugly. Piggybacking on that is the long, wonderful period of growth that had us overextend. The Great Depression also came after a period of over-extension, but back then we had yet to tap our resources and our debt. We've tapped both out at the start of this depression that's coming. Add to it the increased demand for resources from China, India and the rest of the world. We're out. Bacteria is at its greatest expansion when it hits the edge of the petri dish, and in an instant, it's over. I won't plant a garden or buy a gun -- I don't think it will ever be so bad -- but for a while, during the process of converting to alternate energies and transportation mechanisms, it won't be fun.

toumhi 15y ago
True. I'm not denying the fact the risks are different from past risks, the situation is a new one indeed. I was pointing out that there have been risks (of a different type) and there are risks now. I still think investing in yourself by learning, pursuing business interests is justifiable even in light of these risks. In terms of adapting to a changing world as an individual, I think being either self-reliant or being close to major population centres (access to jobs, public transportation etc) are both good strategies. It might be good to learn some martial arts, how to defend yourself, learn to live with less etc.