3 ms·

Tesla FSD progress over the past 12 months

12 points by cs702 5y ago

I just skimmed videos of drivers testing different versions of Tesla FSD over the past year. Progress over the past 12 months has been... much more significant than I had realized until now. The number of edge cases that trip up Tesla FSD keeps getting smaller and smaller, and the software keeps getting better and better at failing gracefully, asking the driver in advance to take over in fewer and fewer outlier edge cases. Progress has been so significant that I've changed my mind about Tesla FSD's prospects. I now think that in the not too distant future it's possible that Tesla FSD will become safe enough for me. It's not 100% certain, but it sure seems possible now. Compare: * A year ago: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=tesla+fsd+beta+6 * 11 months ago: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=tesla+fsd+beta+7 * 10 months ago: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=tesla+fsd+beta+8 * 5 months ago: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=tesla+fsd+beta+9 * 3 months ago https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=tesla+fsd+beta+10.1 * 2 month ago: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=tesla+fsd+beta+10.2 * 1 month ago: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=tesla+fsd+beta+10.3 * 3 weeks ago: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=tesla+fsd+beta+10.4 * 2 weeks ago: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=tesla+fsd+beta+10.5 * 1 week ago: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=tesla+fsd+beta+10.6

seoaeu 5y ago
If there is one thing that really sums up the concerns about the deployment of experimental self driving technology on public roads, it is the quote that "in the future Telsa FSD will become safe enough for me" juxtaposed against the reality that pedestrians today are already forced to place their lives in its hands.
- sixQuarks 5y ago
  Will people die during the ramp up of FSD? Yes, absolutely. But if this is the only question you’re asking, you’re missing the point. The other question you need to ask is how many lives will be saved once we have FSD? That number will easily be 10,000 lives per year. That dwarfs the number that will die due to FSD by orders of magnitude. It is imperative that we figure out FSD as quickly as possible, that means doing real world beta tests using a large fleet, just as Tesla is doing. There will undoubtedly be lives lost in this process, just as there are innocent lives lost in a huge amount of Endeavors we are Undertaking in other areas. And as far as pedestrians being forced to put their lives in the hands of these beta testers, are the same pedestrians not already putting their lives in the hands of drunk drivers, and drivers who aren’t paying attention while using their phones?
  - wnkrshm 5y ago
    I think this argument suffers from tunnel vision - that FSD will be a boon to humanity. Also, many historical sacrifices of people to the progress of civilization (e.g. medicine) have been made coincidentally, or have been forced by mass murderers. I don't think that that is company one should aspire to be in, to aim at forcing those 'necessary' sacrifices. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utilitarianism#The_Brothers_Karamazov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utilitarianism#The_Brothers_Ka...
sidibe 5y ago
This is such a bizarre post you didn't even point out videos for people to look at? I watch a lot of these and it's not been clear that they've improved much, even the enthusiastic drivers seem to say the newest version does better at this but not as good at that and even a couple versions were such bad regressions Tesla rolled them back. Doesn't seem like at this rate of improvement they will be ready for full self driving in the next few years.
togaen 5y ago
Think about what you are saying: you are impressed that a driver assistance system is almost safe enough for you to use. That is not impressive. That is Tesla failing to meet the absolute minimum bar necessary to even deploy this kind of stuff in the first place. Imagine if Ford or GM were putting out systems like this… heads would be rolling. But since it’s Elon doing it, somehow it’s okay and makes his company worth a trillion dollars. Madness.
- md2020 5y ago
  > But since it’s Elon doing it, somehow it’s okay and makes his company worth a trillion dollars Most comments on HN and Reddit (even the largely pro-Tesla subreddits like r/TeslaMotors) are people complaining about how bad FSD is and how ridiculous it is that it's allowed. Missy Cummings, who has a history of publicly calling out Tesla on their unsafe roll-out of FSD, was just made a senior safety advisor for NHTSA. So I disagree with your idea that somehow this is a case of everyone loving something because it's Elon. I'd also disagree that this isn't an impressive feat. If Tesla has been able to build a pipeline that allows them to incrementally improve FSD up to the point where it's almost as good as a human, then it indicates that they could probably continue to incrementally improve the performance past being as good as an (average) human, at least up to a point. On the trillion dollar valuation, obligatory reference to Efficient Market Hypothesis. FSD is not the sole thing driving the stock to that price.
- cs702 5y ago
  That is not what I'm saying. Please don't attack a straw man. What I'm actually saying, if you read everything I wrote above, is that Tesla FSD has progressed faster than I'd realized, so I've changed my mind about its prospects. I now expect it will become safe (as in, safer than me) for everyday driving in the not too distant future.
  - p1esk 5y ago
    "Safe enough for me" does not mean, and is not equivalent to, "safer than me".

12 points by cs702 5y ago

seoaeu 5y ago

If there is one thing that really sums up the concerns about the deployment of experimental self driving technology on public roads, it is the quote that "in the future Telsa FSD will become safe enough for me" juxtaposed against the reality that pedestrians today are already forced to place their lives in its hands.

sixQuarks 5y ago
Will people die during the ramp up of FSD? Yes, absolutely. But if this is the only question you’re asking, you’re missing the point. The other question you need to ask is how many lives will be saved once we have FSD? That number will easily be 10,000 lives per year. That dwarfs the number that will die due to FSD by orders of magnitude. It is imperative that we figure out FSD as quickly as possible, that means doing real world beta tests using a large fleet, just as Tesla is doing. There will undoubtedly be lives lost in this process, just as there are innocent lives lost in a huge amount of Endeavors we are Undertaking in other areas. And as far as pedestrians being forced to put their lives in the hands of these beta testers, are the same pedestrians not already putting their lives in the hands of drunk drivers, and drivers who aren’t paying attention while using their phones?
- wnkrshm 5y ago
  I think this argument suffers from tunnel vision - that FSD will be a boon to humanity. Also, many historical sacrifices of people to the progress of civilization (e.g. medicine) have been made coincidentally, or have been forced by mass murderers. I don't think that that is company one should aspire to be in, to aim at forcing those 'necessary' sacrifices. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utilitarianism#The_Brothers_Karamazov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utilitarianism#The_Brothers_Ka...

sidibe 5y ago

This is such a bizarre post you didn't even point out videos for people to look at? I watch a lot of these and it's not been clear that they've improved much, even the enthusiastic drivers seem to say the newest version does better at this but not as good at that and even a couple versions were such bad regressions Tesla rolled them back. Doesn't seem like at this rate of improvement they will be ready for full self driving in the next few years.

togaen 5y ago

Think about what you are saying: you are impressed that a driver assistance system is almost safe enough for you to use. That is not impressive. That is Tesla failing to meet the absolute minimum bar necessary to even deploy this kind of stuff in the first place. Imagine if Ford or GM were putting out systems like this… heads would be rolling. But since it’s Elon doing it, somehow it’s okay and makes his company worth a trillion dollars. Madness.

md2020 5y ago
> But since it’s Elon doing it, somehow it’s okay and makes his company worth a trillion dollars Most comments on HN and Reddit (even the largely pro-Tesla subreddits like r/TeslaMotors) are people complaining about how bad FSD is and how ridiculous it is that it's allowed. Missy Cummings, who has a history of publicly calling out Tesla on their unsafe roll-out of FSD, was just made a senior safety advisor for NHTSA. So I disagree with your idea that somehow this is a case of everyone loving something because it's Elon. I'd also disagree that this isn't an impressive feat. If Tesla has been able to build a pipeline that allows them to incrementally improve FSD up to the point where it's almost as good as a human, then it indicates that they could probably continue to incrementally improve the performance past being as good as an (average) human, at least up to a point. On the trillion dollar valuation, obligatory reference to Efficient Market Hypothesis. FSD is not the sole thing driving the stock to that price.
cs702 5y ago
That is not what I'm saying. Please don't attack a straw man. What I'm actually saying, if you read everything I wrote above, is that Tesla FSD has progressed faster than I'd realized, so I've changed my mind about its prospects. I now expect it will become safe (as in, safer than me) for everyday driving in the not too distant future.
- p1esk 5y ago
  "Safe enough for me" does not mean, and is not equivalent to, "safer than me".