5 ms·

In my self-interested opinion, this is why we need to increase immigration now, not later. We don't get a choice about the genetic makeup of Western countries

by causi 5y ago

In my self-interested opinion, this is why we need to increase immigration now, not later. We don't get a choice about the genetic makeup of Western countries a century from now, but we do get a choice as to whether our culture is preserved. Bring in the people with high reproduction rates now when they and their children will be maximally immersed in our culture and carry it forward. Don't wait until there aren't enough of us left to matter.

cblconfederate 5y ago
i think we need to calm down with demographic determinism
newsclues 5y ago
Some young people see immigration as a barrier to them having children as they have less career prospects and housing costs more.
- neilparikh 5y ago
  This reminds of a passage from Dune (context: the planet the book is set on is a desert with a very limited amount of water): > "There were water riots when it was learned how many people the Duke was adding to the population," she said. "They stopped only when the people learned we were installing new windtraps and condensers to take care of the load." > "There is only so much water to support human life here," he said. "The people know if more come to drink a limited amount of water, the price goes up and the very poor die. But the Duke has solved this. It doesn’t follow that the riots mean permanent hostility toward him."
  - watwut 5y ago
    Dune is made up. While arguing with history makes some sense, arguing what might happen make some sense, arguing by "fiction had this story in it" does not make sense.
    - mensetmanusman 5y ago
      Fiction is a tool for elaborate analogies. People learn well through analogy, and it can be a lot more persuasive than an economics textbook, because people might actually read it.
      - watwut 5y ago
        The above quote was not elaborate.
        mensetmanusman 5y ago
        I was referring to the world of Dune :)
    - j7ake 5y ago
      Dune is “made up” just as much as economists making predictions about future world populations are made up. They are both toy models that can be useful to inform real life.
      - dragonwriter 5y ago
        > They are both toy models Dune is not a model, toy or otherwise, it is a narrative with no independent variables. The illusion that there is a model involved is art, just as the illusion of (say) spaceships in the film version.
      - watwut 5y ago
        They are not comparable at all. And economic models are taken with massive e caution too. There is difference between fiction and reality. Dune is fiction.
    - neilparikh 5y ago
      I'm not really sure what your criticism is, to be honest. I'll just microanalyze my comment and hope it ends up responding to your point. The passage I posted is basically just, "X is limited, adding more people will lead to X shortages, let's find a way to use X more efficiently", with X replied with water. The implication of me saying this is that you can also replace X with land. Obviously, I could have just said "let's just build more housing, then immigration won't lead to housing shortages", but I think that's a less interesting comment. By instead using the passage, I've done 2 things: pointed out that other people have thought about this issue (in another domain), and encouraged a few people to look up Dune, and maybe read it. Would your criticism apply if my comment instead said "let's just build more housing, then immigration won't lead to housing shortages"? Because I think that form has equivalent content (in terms of the underlying message), so if it doesn't apply that form, I don't think it applies to the current form either.
ChuckNorris89 5y ago
Why not make it attractive for young couples in the west to start families instead of increasing immigration from developing countries? Believe it or not, the lack of babies in the west is not some fancy fashion choice started by the Millennials, but a consequence of the broken housing market formed by government economic and banking policies of the last couple of decades that turned real estate into an investment vehicle for the haves in the detriment of the have-nots who also suffered wage stagnation, effectively pricing out young couples out of decent homes, so instead of hanging a heavy bank loan around their necks for a shoebox for the next 30 years, they choose not to bother with kids or stay debt free and single. So how about we solve the housing market first, instead of throwing more gasoline on the fire via uncontrolled immigration in an already broken housing and jobs market?
- causi 5y ago
  Sure, but there's no reason we can't do both. but a consequence of the broken housing market You sure about that? Birth rate is inversely correlated with income. Why are people who can't afford houses still having more children? https://www.statista.com/statistics/241530/birth-rate-by-family-income-in-the-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241530/birth-rate-by-fam...
  - ChuckNorris89 5y ago
    >Birth rate is inversely correlated with income. That's a useless metric on its own if the rise in housing costs, education and childcare far exceed the rise in wages. Also, more immigration means more demand for housing that's already expensive and scarce for the local population. How does adding more immigration help with the housing crisis? Not saying we shouldn't have immigration, I'm saying it should be regulated to highly skilled professions that suffer demonstrated shortages (doctors, nurses, engineers, etc). We have enough food delivery bicycle couriers and wage slaves that juggle between the unemployment office and seasonal gigs that pay piss poor and are open to exploitation by crappy business owners who thrive on exploiting desperate immigrants who can't defend themselves and bring down the wages for everyone because we keep pushing for more uncontrolled immigration.
lexicality 5y ago
I'm genuinely impressed that you seem to have come up with a pro-immigration spin on the Great Replacement conspiracy theory[1]. Culture changes constantly with or without immigration. Do you really think everything we have now is good enough that it should be encased in amber for the next 100+ years? Personally I'm more interested in what evolves out of it. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Replacement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Replacement
- theclansman 5y ago
  I mean, there are plenty of pro-immigration people that believe in the Great Replacement, that's why they post on twitter or have signs in protests that say "we're going to replace you." I don't even know why it's described as a white nationalist thing, oh well actually I do know why.
- thriftwy 5y ago
  It's hard to argue how illegal immigrants who are often abused and confined to bad, irregular jobs (and sometimes turn to criminals due to these conditions) would improve the culture. There are better cultures and worse ones (such as, prison culture or Khmer Rouge), and we're talking about degradation here. With educated immigrants, the story may be different. But it's not the kind that most people worry about.
forgotmyoldname 5y ago
Immigration is a bandaid on an internal injury. It makes you think you’ve helped the problem for now, but you’ve really done nothing. Most of the countries that act as sources of immigrants are beginning their own population decline. Very soon there’ll be a slim number of countries with enough population to maintain their numbers while having enough to send abroad. Within about 50 years or so, that number will be approximately zero. When immigrants come to a country and adapt, their birth rates drop off pretty quickly as well. It’s a one, maybe two generation patch that slightly sustains numbers and that’s it. Figuring out how to get people currently living in your country wanting to have kids is the real solution. At that point you can recruit skilled immigrants and not just play a numbers game to try to stay afloat. You also don’t need to think you’re entitled to the population of other countries to solve your own demographic crisis, like so many western countries do.
rayiner 5y ago
As one of those immigrants—that isn’t much of a sales pitch, man. My oldest (of 3) is 9, and I’m seriously questioning why I’d want to socialize my kids into this culture. I’m 37 and of my college and law school school friends didn’t have kids until my wife and I had been parents for 6-7 years. We’re by far the youngest parents in our oldest’s class. Maybe tFor a Bangladeshi it’s been such a lonely experience. I don’t want to be like these American parents hoping I get one or two grand kids. :-/
- causi 5y ago
  It's not a sales pitch, it's a trade negotiation. The immigrant gets better economic opportunities, more safety, different individual rights, the opportunity to influence the culture of their new homeland from within, and any other things that make them want to come. In exchange, their descendants will be Americans first, and whatever ethno-cultural identity their parents belonged to second.
  - rayiner 5y ago
    “Come here and you’ll be comfortable for a generation, but you’ll be lonely in your old age and there’s a decent chance your family line will die out!” Like, being able to afford a lot of cheap Chinese crap is pretty tempting, but…
    - causi 5y ago
      Like, being able to afford a lot of cheap Chinese crap is pretty tempting, but… But what? But it isn't worth it? If that's what you mean, are you planning to move back or did you decide it's worth it after all?

by causi 5y ago

cblconfederate 5y ago

i think we need to calm down with demographic determinism

newsclues 5y ago

Some young people see immigration as a barrier to them having children as they have less career prospects and housing costs more.

neilparikh 5y ago
This reminds of a passage from Dune (context: the planet the book is set on is a desert with a very limited amount of water): > "There were water riots when it was learned how many people the Duke was adding to the population," she said. "They stopped only when the people learned we were installing new windtraps and condensers to take care of the load." > "There is only so much water to support human life here," he said. "The people know if more come to drink a limited amount of water, the price goes up and the very poor die. But the Duke has solved this. It doesn’t follow that the riots mean permanent hostility toward him."
- watwut 5y ago
  Dune is made up. While arguing with history makes some sense, arguing what might happen make some sense, arguing by "fiction had this story in it" does not make sense.
  - mensetmanusman 5y ago
    Fiction is a tool for elaborate analogies. People learn well through analogy, and it can be a lot more persuasive than an economics textbook, because people might actually read it.
    - watwut 5y ago
      The above quote was not elaborate.
      - mensetmanusman 5y ago
        I was referring to the world of Dune :)
  - j7ake 5y ago
    Dune is “made up” just as much as economists making predictions about future world populations are made up. They are both toy models that can be useful to inform real life.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > They are both toy models Dune is not a model, toy or otherwise, it is a narrative with no independent variables. The illusion that there is a model involved is art, just as the illusion of (say) spaceships in the film version.
    - watwut 5y ago
      They are not comparable at all. And economic models are taken with massive e caution too. There is difference between fiction and reality. Dune is fiction.
  - neilparikh 5y ago
    I'm not really sure what your criticism is, to be honest. I'll just microanalyze my comment and hope it ends up responding to your point. The passage I posted is basically just, "X is limited, adding more people will lead to X shortages, let's find a way to use X more efficiently", with X replied with water. The implication of me saying this is that you can also replace X with land. Obviously, I could have just said "let's just build more housing, then immigration won't lead to housing shortages", but I think that's a less interesting comment. By instead using the passage, I've done 2 things: pointed out that other people have thought about this issue (in another domain), and encouraged a few people to look up Dune, and maybe read it. Would your criticism apply if my comment instead said "let's just build more housing, then immigration won't lead to housing shortages"? Because I think that form has equivalent content (in terms of the underlying message), so if it doesn't apply that form, I don't think it applies to the current form either.

ChuckNorris89 5y ago

Why not make it attractive for young couples in the west to start families instead of increasing immigration from developing countries? Believe it or not, the lack of babies in the west is not some fancy fashion choice started by the Millennials, but a consequence of the broken housing market formed by government economic and banking policies of the last couple of decades that turned real estate into an investment vehicle for the haves in the detriment of the have-nots who also suffered wage stagnation, effectively pricing out young couples out of decent homes, so instead of hanging a heavy bank loan around their necks for a shoebox for the next 30 years, they choose not to bother with kids or stay debt free and single. So how about we solve the housing market first, instead of throwing more gasoline on the fire via uncontrolled immigration in an already broken housing and jobs market?

causi 5y ago
Sure, but there's no reason we can't do both. but a consequence of the broken housing market You sure about that? Birth rate is inversely correlated with income. Why are people who can't afford houses still having more children? https://www.statista.com/statistics/241530/birth-rate-by-family-income-in-the-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241530/birth-rate-by-fam...
- ChuckNorris89 5y ago
  >Birth rate is inversely correlated with income. That's a useless metric on its own if the rise in housing costs, education and childcare far exceed the rise in wages. Also, more immigration means more demand for housing that's already expensive and scarce for the local population. How does adding more immigration help with the housing crisis? Not saying we shouldn't have immigration, I'm saying it should be regulated to highly skilled professions that suffer demonstrated shortages (doctors, nurses, engineers, etc). We have enough food delivery bicycle couriers and wage slaves that juggle between the unemployment office and seasonal gigs that pay piss poor and are open to exploitation by crappy business owners who thrive on exploiting desperate immigrants who can't defend themselves and bring down the wages for everyone because we keep pushing for more uncontrolled immigration.

lexicality 5y ago

I'm genuinely impressed that you seem to have come up with a pro-immigration spin on the Great Replacement conspiracy theory[1]. Culture changes constantly with or without immigration. Do you really think everything we have now is good enough that it should be encased in amber for the next 100+ years? Personally I'm more interested in what evolves out of it. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Replacement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Replacement

theclansman 5y ago
I mean, there are plenty of pro-immigration people that believe in the Great Replacement, that's why they post on twitter or have signs in protests that say "we're going to replace you." I don't even know why it's described as a white nationalist thing, oh well actually I do know why.
thriftwy 5y ago
It's hard to argue how illegal immigrants who are often abused and confined to bad, irregular jobs (and sometimes turn to criminals due to these conditions) would improve the culture. There are better cultures and worse ones (such as, prison culture or Khmer Rouge), and we're talking about degradation here. With educated immigrants, the story may be different. But it's not the kind that most people worry about.

forgotmyoldname 5y ago

Immigration is a bandaid on an internal injury. It makes you think you’ve helped the problem for now, but you’ve really done nothing. Most of the countries that act as sources of immigrants are beginning their own population decline. Very soon there’ll be a slim number of countries with enough population to maintain their numbers while having enough to send abroad. Within about 50 years or so, that number will be approximately zero. When immigrants come to a country and adapt, their birth rates drop off pretty quickly as well. It’s a one, maybe two generation patch that slightly sustains numbers and that’s it. Figuring out how to get people currently living in your country wanting to have kids is the real solution. At that point you can recruit skilled immigrants and not just play a numbers game to try to stay afloat. You also don’t need to think you’re entitled to the population of other countries to solve your own demographic crisis, like so many western countries do.

rayiner 5y ago

As one of those immigrants—that isn’t much of a sales pitch, man. My oldest (of 3) is 9, and I’m seriously questioning why I’d want to socialize my kids into this culture. I’m 37 and of my college and law school school friends didn’t have kids until my wife and I had been parents for 6-7 years. We’re by far the youngest parents in our oldest’s class. Maybe tFor a Bangladeshi it’s been such a lonely experience. I don’t want to be like these American parents hoping I get one or two grand kids. :-/

causi 5y ago
It's not a sales pitch, it's a trade negotiation. The immigrant gets better economic opportunities, more safety, different individual rights, the opportunity to influence the culture of their new homeland from within, and any other things that make them want to come. In exchange, their descendants will be Americans first, and whatever ethno-cultural identity their parents belonged to second.
- rayiner 5y ago
  “Come here and you’ll be comfortable for a generation, but you’ll be lonely in your old age and there’s a decent chance your family line will die out!” Like, being able to afford a lot of cheap Chinese crap is pretty tempting, but…
  - causi 5y ago
    Like, being able to afford a lot of cheap Chinese crap is pretty tempting, but… But what? But it isn't worth it? If that's what you mean, are you planning to move back or did you decide it's worth it after all?