4 ms·

This made me laugh, because I'm working on a blogpost about how one can use Bayes to argue that humanity is about to go extinct. Seriously.

• gwern 15y ago
  'Seriously'?That seems plausible to me. It's not like nukes, asteroids, biowarfare, supervolcanoes, etc. have simply gone away.
  • taliesinb 15y ago
    Luckily my argument doesn't depend on the messy details of any of those things. But I'm getting ahead of myself -- I should just finish the post.
    • Gupie 15y ago
      Anything to do with world population history?
      • Eliezer 15y ago
        I'd guess Doomsday Argument (sigh).
        • dlss 15y ago
          Look on the bright side: in the future the cranks might cite you as well