3 ms·

My world timeline basically split into before and after when AlphaGo won game 3. What we imagined was mechanically possible and not possible was greatly mistake

My world timeline basically split into before and after when AlphaGo won game 3. What we imagined was mechanically possible and not possible was greatly mistaken. I remember walking around in a light-headed daze, watching people go about their daily business not realizing that the world had changed. Everything since then is still great to read about and I do get surprised from time to time, especially about the diversity of applications rather than more strength in a given area. At the same time, I'm not shocked by any of it. I don't even think discovering basic material/cells or microorganisms on a nearby planet or moon would surprise me as much today as AlphaGo did. We don't have confirmation, but it's not entirely unexpected--'How' is that mystery rather than imagining its possibility. Discovering new areas of application however obscure or deep in any field is what I find more amazing than any practical immediate application of ML-after all the G in AGI is general so we should be hitting all the bases.

echelon 5y ago
> I don't even think discovering basic material/cells or microorganisms on a nearby planet or moon would surprise me as much today as AlphaGo did. AlphaGo was a given. If we don't nuke ourselves, we'll eventually develop AGI (or boosted BCI cybernetics). It's priced into the timeline. Discovering alien biology tells us about our place in the universe. It gives us a sense of the distribution of life and what else could be out there. If what we find is similar to us, it points to some kind of panspermia or global convergent evolution. Maybe other life will be shockingly different with wildly new means of representing information. Nothing like our nucleic acids. Who knows? I put my bets on us developing AGI before meeting our cosmic neighbors, sadly. The Fermi paradox is strong.
- karmakaze 5y ago
  Before AlphaGo's achievement, it was still expected to occur, but the expectation was in about 20 years with much more developed tech. The shock and surprise was that using larger scale of combinations of current tech could achieve the feat. The qualitative change in worldview is that 'dumb' machines can do intelligent things. AlphaZero was a tour-de-force of how dumbness can excel. In hindsight we can say that these things happening in our lifetime with tech of the day isn't surprising, but if following closely as-it-happened, it was a big surprise to everyone including the AlphaGo team. I don't think anyone knew if there was any limit where efficiency/effectiveness of the systems being built would top out in the complexity it could tackle.

echelon 5y ago

> I don't even think discovering basic material/cells or microorganisms on a nearby planet or moon would surprise me as much today as AlphaGo did. AlphaGo was a given. If we don't nuke ourselves, we'll eventually develop AGI (or boosted BCI cybernetics). It's priced into the timeline. Discovering alien biology tells us about our place in the universe. It gives us a sense of the distribution of life and what else could be out there. If what we find is similar to us, it points to some kind of panspermia or global convergent evolution. Maybe other life will be shockingly different with wildly new means of representing information. Nothing like our nucleic acids. Who knows? I put my bets on us developing AGI before meeting our cosmic neighbors, sadly. The Fermi paradox is strong.

karmakaze 5y ago
Before AlphaGo's achievement, it was still expected to occur, but the expectation was in about 20 years with much more developed tech. The shock and surprise was that using larger scale of combinations of current tech could achieve the feat. The qualitative change in worldview is that 'dumb' machines can do intelligent things. AlphaZero was a tour-de-force of how dumbness can excel. In hindsight we can say that these things happening in our lifetime with tech of the day isn't surprising, but if following closely as-it-happened, it was a big surprise to everyone including the AlphaGo team. I don't think anyone knew if there was any limit where efficiency/effectiveness of the systems being built would top out in the complexity it could tackle.