4 ms·
"Today I own one drill press as a capital for my manufacturing business. Tomorrow the .gov prints 1 quadrillion dollars. Tomorrow drill presses aren't any harde
by lkrubner 5y ago
"Today I own one drill press as a capital for my manufacturing business. Tomorrow the .gov prints 1 quadrillion dollars. Tomorrow drill presses aren't any harder to come by nor harder to make nor any more or less useful for industry or for me or anyone else. The price inflation still rises."
Future tense is compatible with a correct model, but present tense would be incorrect. No inflation has occurred even if the price goes from $100 to $100,000 for the exact same item. Again, as I've said several times elsewhere in this thread, when we are speaking jokingly or informally it is perfectly okay to say "asset price inflation" and everyone will informally understand what you mean. But I've been trying to explain how the government calculates inflation.
If the price goes from $100 to $100,000 for the exact same capital good that you own, you've become wealthier in nominal terms. However, you will need to pass along this price increase to those further down the line, either another company or a final consumer of some product of which your product might be a part. Once the final consumer sees the price increase, then the government will declare it to be inflation. But the government does not regard it as inflation in the CPI till it reaches the final consumer.
It might be a technical point, but it is worth keeping in mind: even those events that guarantee consumer inflation are not consumer inflation until they reach the final consumer. The distance in time might be weeks or years. Sometimes an event occurs and consumers feel the effect within a day -- gasoline prices are often like this, a terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia can see an uptick in prices within a day or two. Other times some event occurs and it takes years before consumers see the increase in prices; over fishing of the oceans is an event that almost guarantees consumer inflation, but typically takes several years to settle in, as the effect among the fish is multi-generational.
- notch656a 5y ago>But the government does not regard it as inflation in the CPI till it reaches the final consumer. I think this really drills down into the crux of the problem that was posed. If you merely want to survive and not build up investments and capital for your later life and heirs, then consumer inflation gives you a good picture of how prices are raising around you and what your purchasing power looks like. If you actually care about having some security for the future, land or assets for your business, preserving wealth for general use in any asset class, or something to pass on for your family, or being a PART of the world rather than just a consumer, then the CPI looks like a poor indicator of your changes in purchasing power.