I think this misses the mark in a few ways. There's no risk to you. I'm providing the imaginary betting money. You can't lose, you can only win. When people

I think this misses the mark in a few ways. There's no risk to you. I'm providing the imaginary betting money. You can't lose, you can only win. When people raise objections or complications or uncertainty because they are trying not to agree with you, then this may help get to the heart of matter. I think X. There are many details and complicating factors. If I gave you $100 to bet on X or Y, which would you bet it on? ... > I'd be willing to pay that lunch regardless and I find it amusing even if I am made fun of for "being wrong" by my friends Delightful. It brings to mind the Seinfeld where someone bets Elaine a dinner that Dustin Hoffman was in Star Wars as a way to go on a date without having to ask. Or perhaps Stephen Hawking's bet against black holes. If he won his life's work would have been wasted, but he'd get a subscription to True Detective, or something close to that.