5 ms·

1. Actual throughput in our ports is up over previous levels. Its demand that has increased, a combination of redistribution downwards (through better wages, go

1. Actual throughput in our ports is up over previous levels. Its demand that has increased, a combination of redistribution downwards (through better wages, government benefits) and pent up savings. There's already evidence savings are depleted for lower income households (as evidenced by increased credit card balances). 2. Perhaps you could explain why container owners have no incentive to increase their business volume. 3. The US systematically undershot its 2% inflation target for years. It acted more like an upper bound. Its good that its gone over. Just now we've overshot. But we've overshot by a fair margin. So I think they'll pull back as soon as any perceived softness of the real economy has gone away.

mercy_dude 5y ago
> Perhaps you could explain why container owners have no incentive to increase their business volume. The article I linked does a fairly good job explaining it. Basically if you are a container owner, you can charge 10x the price for containers from Shanghai to Long Island, while the other way it’s almost a loss since it’s returning empty. The decline in ships waiting just offshore of Los Angeles/Long Beach continues to be touted as a sign that port congestion is easing — despite the fact that the true number of waiting ships has not actually declined. https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1466424994670518279 https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1466424994670518279
Thrymr 5y ago
> 1. Actual throughput in our ports is up over previous levels. Not true in general. The port of Long Beach is down 5% year-on-year (the third month in a row that is down compared with 2020) [0]. [0] https://gcaptain.com/amid-record-breaking-year-port-of-long-beach-throughput-falls-almost-5-in-november/ https://gcaptain.com/amid-record-breaking-year-port-of-long-...
- conjecTech 5y ago
  It's still up 25% from 2019 numbers: https://polb.com/business/port-statistics/#teus-archive-1995-to-present https://polb.com/business/port-statistics/#teus-archive-1995....
- gilbetron 5y ago
  That link supports the premise, you just chose a specific timeframe which had a small decline, the overall levels for the year are a huge increase: "Through November, the Port of Long Beach has processed more than 8.6 million TEU, up over 18% from last year and already surpassing the annual record of 8.1 million TEUs set in 2020."
dv_dt 5y ago
Demand is increased, but I suspect its inventory backfill from a very slow previous year overlaid with maintaining ongoing inventory flow.

mercy_dude 5y ago

> Perhaps you could explain why container owners have no incentive to increase their business volume. The article I linked does a fairly good job explaining it. Basically if you are a container owner, you can charge 10x the price for containers from Shanghai to Long Island, while the other way it’s almost a loss since it’s returning empty. The decline in ships waiting just offshore of Los Angeles/Long Beach continues to be touted as a sign that port congestion is easing — despite the fact that the true number of waiting ships has not actually declined. https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1466424994670518279 https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1466424994670518279

Thrymr 5y ago

> 1. Actual throughput in our ports is up over previous levels. Not true in general. The port of Long Beach is down 5% year-on-year (the third month in a row that is down compared with 2020) [0]. [0] https://gcaptain.com/amid-record-breaking-year-port-of-long-beach-throughput-falls-almost-5-in-november/ https://gcaptain.com/amid-record-breaking-year-port-of-long-...

conjecTech 5y ago
It's still up 25% from 2019 numbers: https://polb.com/business/port-statistics/#teus-archive-1995-to-present https://polb.com/business/port-statistics/#teus-archive-1995....
gilbetron 5y ago
That link supports the premise, you just chose a specific timeframe which had a small decline, the overall levels for the year are a huge increase: "Through November, the Port of Long Beach has processed more than 8.6 million TEU, up over 18% from last year and already surpassing the annual record of 8.1 million TEUs set in 2020."

dv_dt 5y ago

Demand is increased, but I suspect its inventory backfill from a very slow previous year overlaid with maintaining ongoing inventory flow.