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Dr. Strangelove's 'Doomsday Machine': It's real (2009)

36 points by marcodiego 5y ago

colechristensen 5y ago
Calling this a doomsday machine is a bit of a stretch, comparing it to the plot of Dr Strangelove even more so.
robbedpeter 5y ago
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand How many stupid human mistakes are we away from doomsday? I hope there's no date/time glitches or buffer overflows.
- Trex_Egg 5y ago
  interesting one
- ravenstine 5y ago
  At least there might be enough `cannot read property 'undefined' of undefined` and such to hold us over for a while until humanity solves this issue.
- labster 5y ago
  At least the world ending in 2038 helps me set deadlines for my personal goals.
- teeray 5y ago
  Command & Control[0] details the stupid mistakes very well. There were many, many glitches. [0] https://www.amazon.com/Command-Control-Damascus-Accident-Illusion/dp/0143125788/ref=nodl_ https://www.amazon.com/Command-Control-Damascus-Accident-Ill...
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- KennyBlanken 5y ago
  Mistakes, bureaucracy, crumbling infrastructure...Russia has been falling apart for decades. They somewhat routinely has nuclear plant accidents to this day which we only find out about when monitoring stations pick up huge upticks in background radiation. The chances of enough infrastructure problems, incompetence, and don't-give-a-fuck-itis-its-vodka-time to trigger this system are very much non-zero. Boris the drunk farmer accidentally cuts a comm line nobody remembers, but is still used by the doomsday machine. The same day, someone new and untrained is working the switchboard at a defense HQ and thinks "some asshole with a flute" is crank calling them when it's actually the doomsday machine playing the "hey, I've been triggered, is anyone alive?" recognition tones that they're supposed to punch in a response to. Some military system was recently decommissioned but turns out the doomsday machine uses its status as one of the later stages of its decision-making. So then we end up with every population center in the continental US turned to glass?
  - PawBer 5y ago
    I think the chance of US doing the same thing is pretty similar.
aftbit 5y ago
[2009] tag please. Here is the Wired article that this interview quotes. https://www.wired.com/2009/09/mf-deadhand/ https://www.wired.com/2009/09/mf-deadhand/
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sasaf5 5y ago
Undoing the clickbait: It isn't a machine, it's a set of rules to be followed by humans. This rules can be changed, amended, or removed. The doomsday machine of Dr. Strangelove couldn't be turned off even by their creators. So no, it's not real.
- robbedpeter 5y ago
  It's a set of machines which, in the event of all Russian command being killed or cut off, will commence with nuclear launch. There are humans in the loop, but it's designed to account for the possibility of humans being neutralized. It's the "assurance" part of mutually assured destruction. According to Russian leadership, it serves as more of an organizational ideal which their military uses in consideration of strategy. It was still in operation as of 2018, but hasn't been confirmed or denied in public since (Dead Hand. )
- cassianoleal 5y ago
  > couldn't be turned off even by their creators. So no, it's not real. If you really believe that, you should read the aptly titled The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner by Daniel Ellsberg, also mentioned by stephen_g in this same post.
stephen_g 5y ago
Daniel Ellsberg's book "The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner" is a really good rundown of the systems the US had (he was involved in putting together war plans at RAND corporation). It's been a while since I read it, but as I recall from what he says, things were not as they were normally potrayed, such as ideas like "only the President can authorise a nuclear strike" - apparently at times there were actually several layers of 'delegated authority' (in case a first strike killed the president), so there were actually quite a few people who could authorise the use of nuclear weapons, and more than there were meant to be (because the next level wasn't meant to delegate to another, but did)! This was mostly before missiles so when it would have all been ordering bomber pilots, so it was a bit more decentralised. The other thing is that there was an idea that the US wouldn't launch a first-strike but would only retaliate - but there were actually multiple times when generals tried to get the President to authorise a nuclear first strike, including in the Cuba missile crisis.
- KennyBlanken 5y ago
  The notion that only the President could order a strike was sheer fantasy for much of the history of nuclear weapons. There were no codes required to activate them for the longest time; the only security mechanism was just, really, the morals and mental stability of half a dozen crew on any of dozens of bombers flying 24x7. When the Air Force was forced to institute Permissive Action Link, a system whereby nukes couldn't be armed without a numeric code (in theory from the President's Football, I guess, or maybe from a place like NORAD, after the president authenticated himself to them)...they set the codes on all weapons to be zeros. That level of petulance over nuclear weapons is pretty mind-blowing. It is, frankly, amazing that we've never had anyone go completely nuts and set one off on purpose. Never had one malfunction. Never intentionally, but for mistaken reasons, launched/dropped any. We've come close to thinking we were getting nuked (as has the USSR; literally one Russian dude deciding to play it safe was all that really kept both the USSR and the US from near total annihilation. A satellite told him it had detected a launch and he knew there was a chance it was sunlight glint. Yes, the USSR was relying on a satellite to decide on whether to start WW3...that could be triggered by sunlight glinting into its lenses. There's also the rather shocking number of nuclear weapons the US Air Force has 'accidentally' dropped or had in planes that crashed. In some of the incidents, a number of the safety interlock systems were found to be "satisfied." Some of the warheads haven't been found, which is also quite disturbing. Somewhere out there is at least one nuke, waiting for anyone to grab it and make a dirty bomb. Oh, and the group that transports nuclear materials (not sure if this includes weapons? I think the Air Force handles that?) around the country is apparently a total shitshow. Undertrained, overworked, underpaid, underfunded guys who manage to get into all sorts of trouble, including losing their handguns, getting drunk while on duty, and so on. I think the only compelling argument someone could make with me for the existence of a higher power is that we haven't yet had an accidental nuclear weapon detonation.
ineedasername 5y ago
It's my understanding that during the cold war US nuclear subs filled pretty much the same purpose: last-strike capability that could not be taken out by a successful first-strike by an adversary hitting the US's ground-based launch facilities. IIRC bombers were part of this strategy as well but presented easier targets to take out. It's just that the launch decision authority was delegated to a large decentralized group of commanders with ever lower ranked officers automatically receiving that authority if higher level officers were taken out or rendered incommunicado due to the fog of war or wide scale decapitation strike.

36 points by marcodiego 5y ago

Calling this a doomsday machine is a bit of a stretch, comparing it to the plot of Dr Strangelove even more so.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand How many stupid human mistakes are we away from doomsday? I hope there's no date/time glitches or buffer overflows.

Trex_Egg 5y ago
interesting one
ravenstine 5y ago
At least there might be enough `cannot read property 'undefined' of undefined` and such to hold us over for a while until humanity solves this issue.
labster 5y ago
At least the world ending in 2038 helps me set deadlines for my personal goals.
teeray 5y ago
Command & Control[0] details the stupid mistakes very well. There were many, many glitches. [0] https://www.amazon.com/Command-Control-Damascus-Accident-Illusion/dp/0143125788/ref=nodl_ https://www.amazon.com/Command-Control-Damascus-Accident-Ill...
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
KennyBlanken 5y ago
Mistakes, bureaucracy, crumbling infrastructure...Russia has been falling apart for decades. They somewhat routinely has nuclear plant accidents to this day which we only find out about when monitoring stations pick up huge upticks in background radiation. The chances of enough infrastructure problems, incompetence, and don't-give-a-fuck-itis-its-vodka-time to trigger this system are very much non-zero. Boris the drunk farmer accidentally cuts a comm line nobody remembers, but is still used by the doomsday machine. The same day, someone new and untrained is working the switchboard at a defense HQ and thinks "some asshole with a flute" is crank calling them when it's actually the doomsday machine playing the "hey, I've been triggered, is anyone alive?" recognition tones that they're supposed to punch in a response to. Some military system was recently decommissioned but turns out the doomsday machine uses its status as one of the later stages of its decision-making. So then we end up with every population center in the continental US turned to glass?
- PawBer 5y ago
  I think the chance of US doing the same thing is pretty similar.

aftbit 5y ago

[2009] tag please. Here is the Wired article that this interview quotes. https://www.wired.com/2009/09/mf-deadhand/ https://www.wired.com/2009/09/mf-deadhand/

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

sasaf5 5y ago

Undoing the clickbait: It isn't a machine, it's a set of rules to be followed by humans. This rules can be changed, amended, or removed. The doomsday machine of Dr. Strangelove couldn't be turned off even by their creators. So no, it's not real.

robbedpeter 5y ago
It's a set of machines which, in the event of all Russian command being killed or cut off, will commence with nuclear launch. There are humans in the loop, but it's designed to account for the possibility of humans being neutralized. It's the "assurance" part of mutually assured destruction. According to Russian leadership, it serves as more of an organizational ideal which their military uses in consideration of strategy. It was still in operation as of 2018, but hasn't been confirmed or denied in public since (Dead Hand. )
cassianoleal 5y ago
> couldn't be turned off even by their creators. So no, it's not real. If you really believe that, you should read the aptly titled The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner by Daniel Ellsberg, also mentioned by stephen_g in this same post.

stephen_g 5y ago

Daniel Ellsberg's book "The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner" is a really good rundown of the systems the US had (he was involved in putting together war plans at RAND corporation). It's been a while since I read it, but as I recall from what he says, things were not as they were normally potrayed, such as ideas like "only the President can authorise a nuclear strike" - apparently at times there were actually several layers of 'delegated authority' (in case a first strike killed the president), so there were actually quite a few people who could authorise the use of nuclear weapons, and more than there were meant to be (because the next level wasn't meant to delegate to another, but did)! This was mostly before missiles so when it would have all been ordering bomber pilots, so it was a bit more decentralised. The other thing is that there was an idea that the US wouldn't launch a first-strike but would only retaliate - but there were actually multiple times when generals tried to get the President to authorise a nuclear first strike, including in the Cuba missile crisis.

KennyBlanken 5y ago
The notion that only the President could order a strike was sheer fantasy for much of the history of nuclear weapons. There were no codes required to activate them for the longest time; the only security mechanism was just, really, the morals and mental stability of half a dozen crew on any of dozens of bombers flying 24x7. When the Air Force was forced to institute Permissive Action Link, a system whereby nukes couldn't be armed without a numeric code (in theory from the President's Football, I guess, or maybe from a place like NORAD, after the president authenticated himself to them)...they set the codes on all weapons to be zeros. That level of petulance over nuclear weapons is pretty mind-blowing. It is, frankly, amazing that we've never had anyone go completely nuts and set one off on purpose. Never had one malfunction. Never intentionally, but for mistaken reasons, launched/dropped any. We've come close to thinking we were getting nuked (as has the USSR; literally one Russian dude deciding to play it safe was all that really kept both the USSR and the US from near total annihilation. A satellite told him it had detected a launch and he knew there was a chance it was sunlight glint. Yes, the USSR was relying on a satellite to decide on whether to start WW3...that could be triggered by sunlight glinting into its lenses. There's also the rather shocking number of nuclear weapons the US Air Force has 'accidentally' dropped or had in planes that crashed. In some of the incidents, a number of the safety interlock systems were found to be "satisfied." Some of the warheads haven't been found, which is also quite disturbing. Somewhere out there is at least one nuke, waiting for anyone to grab it and make a dirty bomb. Oh, and the group that transports nuclear materials (not sure if this includes weapons? I think the Air Force handles that?) around the country is apparently a total shitshow. Undertrained, overworked, underpaid, underfunded guys who manage to get into all sorts of trouble, including losing their handguns, getting drunk while on duty, and so on. I think the only compelling argument someone could make with me for the existence of a higher power is that we haven't yet had an accidental nuclear weapon detonation.

ineedasername 5y ago

It's my understanding that during the cold war US nuclear subs filled pretty much the same purpose: last-strike capability that could not be taken out by a successful first-strike by an adversary hitting the US's ground-based launch facilities. IIRC bombers were part of this strategy as well but presented easier targets to take out. It's just that the launch decision authority was delegated to a large decentralized group of commanders with ever lower ranked officers automatically receiving that authority if higher level officers were taken out or rendered incommunicado due to the fog of war or wide scale decapitation strike.