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I combined https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_crime_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b... and https://

I combined https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_crime_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b... and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mayors_of_the_50_largest_cities_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mayors_of_the_50_large... (proxy for political party), and found that the top 13 cities with the highest crime rate in that combined data set were democratic. 7 out of 9 republican cities were in the half with the lower crime rate. Interestingly, all 3 cities with independent party mayors were in the lower crime half. Of course this is totally unscientific, but I think it is interesting and at the very least there is some association. I also note that larger cities tend to be democratic.

alphabettsy 5y ago
If you ignore history this seems like it might be something to look into, that’s until you realize that crime has fallen greatly in the last two to three decades and quite a few of these cities, New York and Los Angeles included had Republican mayors at the start of that time period. NYC crime is way down since Guiliani was mayor. Los Angeles crime is down since Richard Riordan was mayor. So maybe the takeaway is that getting rid of Republican mayors reduces crime? It’s likely not, but that’s the problem with looking at things this way.
- starik36 5y ago
  I think some context is in order. Giuliani's heavy handedness in dealing with criminals forced the crime to come down in a way. Meaning, police were forced to deal even with the pettiest of crimes. Giuliani banned all sorts of "unsavory" businesses from Times Square. That reduced crime in the area and helped a ton because it showed that a horrible area can be rehabilitated. One year, the subways were gross, smelly, hot, dangerous and covered in graffiti. And the next, I was riding in clean subways at 2am without fearing for my life. In Los Angeles, with Richard Riordan, his years coincided with California's "3 strikes and you are out" law, which put away lots of habitual criminals. Crime went down everywhere in the state.
  - alphabettsy 5y ago
    You’re right it needs context, but my point was that it needs to be analyzed far beyond what party controls the mayor’s office. Also crime was already falling when each of them took office so I’m not sure I’d attribute the falling crime solely to their tactics or leadership.
    - starik36 5y ago
      > crime was already falling That is possible. I can only speak from my experience. I visited NYC a number of times pre-Giuliani, then moved to NYC after he became mayor. It was like night and day, particularly the area around Times Square where I ended up working.
baby 5y ago
no offense, but that feels like a useless statistic. All the large cities in the US are blue, and large cities attract the most crime.
- oaktrout 5y ago
  No offense taken, I myself conceded "this is totally unscientific" and noted that large cities tend to be democratic. The crime statistics are per capita, but again, you would still expect larger cities to have higher crime rates. Edit: Actually, I was surprised to find that the cities with the highest populations didn't necessarily have the highest per capita crime. Compare Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York to Detroit, Baltimore, and Kansas City. The latter are all smaller but have higher per capita crime. Also, to control for size somewhat, I compared cities in the dataset with population between 390K and 500K (6 democratic cities / 6 republican). Again, dividing in half by per capita crime rate, 5 of 6 top crime cities are democratic, and 5 of 6 low crime cities are republican. The ordered list for anyone curious (low to high crime) is: Virginia Beach Mesa Colorado Springs Omaha Sacramento Miami Atlanta Wichita Tulsa Minneapolis Oakland Kansas City

alphabettsy 5y ago

If you ignore history this seems like it might be something to look into, that’s until you realize that crime has fallen greatly in the last two to three decades and quite a few of these cities, New York and Los Angeles included had Republican mayors at the start of that time period. NYC crime is way down since Guiliani was mayor. Los Angeles crime is down since Richard Riordan was mayor. So maybe the takeaway is that getting rid of Republican mayors reduces crime? It’s likely not, but that’s the problem with looking at things this way.

starik36 5y ago
I think some context is in order. Giuliani's heavy handedness in dealing with criminals forced the crime to come down in a way. Meaning, police were forced to deal even with the pettiest of crimes. Giuliani banned all sorts of "unsavory" businesses from Times Square. That reduced crime in the area and helped a ton because it showed that a horrible area can be rehabilitated. One year, the subways were gross, smelly, hot, dangerous and covered in graffiti. And the next, I was riding in clean subways at 2am without fearing for my life. In Los Angeles, with Richard Riordan, his years coincided with California's "3 strikes and you are out" law, which put away lots of habitual criminals. Crime went down everywhere in the state.
- alphabettsy 5y ago
  You’re right it needs context, but my point was that it needs to be analyzed far beyond what party controls the mayor’s office. Also crime was already falling when each of them took office so I’m not sure I’d attribute the falling crime solely to their tactics or leadership.
  - starik36 5y ago
    > crime was already falling That is possible. I can only speak from my experience. I visited NYC a number of times pre-Giuliani, then moved to NYC after he became mayor. It was like night and day, particularly the area around Times Square where I ended up working.

baby 5y ago

no offense, but that feels like a useless statistic. All the large cities in the US are blue, and large cities attract the most crime.

oaktrout 5y ago
No offense taken, I myself conceded "this is totally unscientific" and noted that large cities tend to be democratic. The crime statistics are per capita, but again, you would still expect larger cities to have higher crime rates. Edit: Actually, I was surprised to find that the cities with the highest populations didn't necessarily have the highest per capita crime. Compare Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York to Detroit, Baltimore, and Kansas City. The latter are all smaller but have higher per capita crime. Also, to control for size somewhat, I compared cities in the dataset with population between 390K and 500K (6 democratic cities / 6 republican). Again, dividing in half by per capita crime rate, 5 of 6 top crime cities are democratic, and 5 of 6 low crime cities are republican. The ordered list for anyone curious (low to high crime) is: Virginia Beach Mesa Colorado Springs Omaha Sacramento Miami Atlanta Wichita Tulsa Minneapolis Oakland Kansas City