4 ms·

So a random twitter thread from some random twitter user? How about post tweets from epidemiologists who study the thing. Right now there is a big dichotomy. T

by sjg007 5y ago

So a random twitter thread from some random twitter user? How about post tweets from epidemiologists who study the thing. Right now there is a big dichotomy. The majority of the epidemiologists and scientists say things are going to be bad. Then we have mainstream media going off of clinical notes. Still those notes don't square with increased hospitalizations of the very young. We are probably right in the middle of Simpson's paradox and only time will tell.

danaris 5y ago
Having a bit of cognitive dissonance to find out that experienced vaccine researchers are furries? The poster's bio on the right clearly states that they're a senior vaccine R&D scientist, and they've been posting well-sourced and cogent analysis of the pandemic since it started. This isn't just some rando on Twitter.
akomtu 5y ago
My go-to response to fearmongering around omicron is asking for mortality stats compared to Delta.
- nomel 5y ago
  That would require being aware of "immunity" in the population being compared, with order of least to most being something like: unvaccinated without previous infection, previous infection, vaccinated, and vaccinated with breakthrough infection/previous infection with vaccine. If you just looked at something raw like hospitalization/infected, like I see being used, you don't get a meaningful comparison, since much of the population now has some form of immunity compared to delta. The most interesting would be comparing hospitalization/infected for unvaccinated at some older age, like > 50yo.
- sjg007 5y ago
  It's literally too early to answer that question. The proxies at this point are basically linearly related -> case counts, hospitalizations, ICU, death. It took months to answer that for Delta vs the reference... And everyone said Delta was less lethal than the original strain and surprise it is not.
viraptor 5y ago
This random user is (from bio) "Senior Scientist / Vaccine Research & Development".
deleted 5y ago
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by sjg007 5y ago

danaris 5y ago

Having a bit of cognitive dissonance to find out that experienced vaccine researchers are furries? The poster's bio on the right clearly states that they're a senior vaccine R&D scientist, and they've been posting well-sourced and cogent analysis of the pandemic since it started. This isn't just some rando on Twitter.

akomtu 5y ago

My go-to response to fearmongering around omicron is asking for mortality stats compared to Delta.

nomel 5y ago
That would require being aware of "immunity" in the population being compared, with order of least to most being something like: unvaccinated without previous infection, previous infection, vaccinated, and vaccinated with breakthrough infection/previous infection with vaccine. If you just looked at something raw like hospitalization/infected, like I see being used, you don't get a meaningful comparison, since much of the population now has some form of immunity compared to delta. The most interesting would be comparing hospitalization/infected for unvaccinated at some older age, like > 50yo.
sjg007 5y ago
It's literally too early to answer that question. The proxies at this point are basically linearly related -> case counts, hospitalizations, ICU, death. It took months to answer that for Delta vs the reference... And everyone said Delta was less lethal than the original strain and surprise it is not.

viraptor 5y ago

This random user is (from bio) "Senior Scientist / Vaccine Research & Development".

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]