3 ms·

How does one jump from "Omicron is more transmissible and less deadly than Delta" to "Immunity...is kicking in!" That seems like quite a leap compared to a seem

by pc86 5y ago

How does one jump from "Omicron is more transmissible and less deadly than Delta" to "Immunity...is kicking in!" That seems like quite a leap compared to a seemingly much more likely reason, that this is a mutation and it just happens to be less deadly (probably because of whatever change makes it more transmissible but still basically random chance/evolutionary pressure). I don't see how previous infections and/or vaccinations have anything to do with the characteristics of Omicron.

wccrawford 5y ago
>Immunity through vaccination and previous infection is kicking in! Because this version is more transmissible, and (theoretically?) causes your body to create antibodies that are effective against the other variants, this version of the virus will cause more people than ever to have antibodies without as much risk of death or long-term illness. People will either get the vaccine, or their risk of contracting covid will go up. They didn't mean "has kicked in", they mean it's starting to.
- newbamboo 5y ago
  I gave them more credit than that. Maybe I misinterpreted their tweet to favorably.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
singlow 5y ago
If mutation increases chance of vaccinated person getting a detectable infection, the hospitalization stats may show lower rates even though it is no less severe for the unvaccinated population.
- newbamboo 5y ago
  This was my interpretation. Disclaimer: I have been an err on the side of caution person since Jan 2020.
Majromax 5y ago
> (probably because of whatever change makes it more transmissible but still basically random chance/evolutionary pressure) That's the trick. Delta already appears to be very, very transmissible. If Omicron's growth is due entirely to improved transmissibility, then it would have to spread in a non-distanced, vulnerable population at an implausibly high rate, comparable to some of the most transmissible viruses ever studied. However, if Omicron's improved spread is partially through immune escape, then its growth could be explained through reinfections and breakthrough infections -- people who are largely immune to Delta are contracting a mild case of Omicron. That does not make the variant inherently less deadly, since it's not an apples-to-apples comparison on the ill populations. It will probably be some time yet before we have reliable statistics on the severity of Omicron in the never-infected, never-vaccinated cohort. In the meantime, there's reasonable cause to be concerned for vulnerable people (elderly, people with lung conditions, or the immunocompromised) who are partially relying on low community infection rates for their personal protection.

by pc86 5y ago

wccrawford 5y ago

>Immunity through vaccination and previous infection is kicking in! Because this version is more transmissible, and (theoretically?) causes your body to create antibodies that are effective against the other variants, this version of the virus will cause more people than ever to have antibodies without as much risk of death or long-term illness. People will either get the vaccine, or their risk of contracting covid will go up. They didn't mean "has kicked in", they mean it's starting to.

newbamboo 5y ago
I gave them more credit than that. Maybe I misinterpreted their tweet to favorably.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

singlow 5y ago

If mutation increases chance of vaccinated person getting a detectable infection, the hospitalization stats may show lower rates even though it is no less severe for the unvaccinated population.

newbamboo 5y ago
This was my interpretation. Disclaimer: I have been an err on the side of caution person since Jan 2020.

Majromax 5y ago

> (probably because of whatever change makes it more transmissible but still basically random chance/evolutionary pressure) That's the trick. Delta already appears to be very, very transmissible. If Omicron's growth is due entirely to improved transmissibility, then it would have to spread in a non-distanced, vulnerable population at an implausibly high rate, comparable to some of the most transmissible viruses ever studied. However, if Omicron's improved spread is partially through immune escape, then its growth could be explained through reinfections and breakthrough infections -- people who are largely immune to Delta are contracting a mild case of Omicron. That does not make the variant inherently less deadly, since it's not an apples-to-apples comparison on the ill populations. It will probably be some time yet before we have reliable statistics on the severity of Omicron in the never-infected, never-vaccinated cohort. In the meantime, there's reasonable cause to be concerned for vulnerable people (elderly, people with lung conditions, or the immunocompromised) who are partially relying on low community infection rates for their personal protection.