4 ms·
> it might stick around for a long time now This is the most important financial lesson of the pandemic for me. There is something deeply wrong with many part
by time_to_smile 5y ago
> it might stick around for a long time now
This is the most important financial lesson of the pandemic for me.
There is something deeply wrong with many parts of our economy and financial system, any one who is an expert in any specific area will tell you that things seem weird and don't make sense.
A great example of this is ad tech. I've worked in ad tech for many years and strongly agree with Tim Hwang's Subprime Attention Crisis. Everything is a house of cards, fraud (intentional or not) is wide spread.
However one thing that Hwang (or anyone pointing out that our systems are houses of cards, scams, or otherwise unsound) fails to answer is the question "what makes it fall apart?"
I'm a huge fan of at least the film version of the Big Short, which does a great job exploring the 2008 financial crisis and how unstable our financial system can be. But it's important to recognize that a key part of everyone's discovery isn't just realizing "this is all bullshit" it's realizing precisely when and why reality will come crashing in. There's even a great scene where Michael Burry calls the major banks and realizes that they essentially won't let the market collapse until they get their piece, that they can essentially push back reality a bit until they get theirs.
So crypto may be unquestionably a ponzi scheme, but what will make that scheme fall apart? ad tech might be mostly bs, but what will make everyone stop paying into it? stock prices maybe completely out of line with reality (with inflation and cash injections who even knows) but what will force them to face reality?
We may all be living in la la land, a wild fever dream, but pointing out you're in a dream doesn't always make you wake up. The question is "what precisely will wake us up". And for all the things that seem very wrong with our current world, I have yet to hear anyone give a concise answer or even guess as to what this is. If the pandemic didn't knock over our house of cards, I'm not entirely sure what will or when it will happen. If Wile E. Coyote never looks down after running of a cliff, will he still fall?