3 ms·

I'm not sure what exactly you are trying to point out? The jump in 2020? The exponential curve? The exponential curve is inflation in action. That is, 1.03^x is

I'm not sure what exactly you are trying to point out? The jump in 2020? The exponential curve? The exponential curve is inflation in action. That is, 1.03^x is an exponential function that represents the 3% inflation target. I think the jump wouldn't even be noticed by laymen. But, my two cents, is that I think modern monetary theory (a contested theory) would say that printing money to control unemployment does not necessarily lead to inflation. This is kind of what we're seeing?

willcipriano 5y ago
The nearly vertical line over the past two years, yes. I don't think you can call simple supply and demand a conspiracy theory. If MMT theorists said that wouldn't cause inflation, I'd call that a conspiracy theory soundly disproven[0]. [0]https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-consumer-prices-spiked-6-2-percent-in-past-year-highest-inflation-rate-since-1990 https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-consumer-prices-spi...
- the_gastropod 5y ago
  This take is the equivalent of taking a snowball into the halls of congress to refute climate change. We're in the midst of a global pandemic that's had dramatic impacts on international supply chains. Of course prices are volatile. To use this as evidence of the general "LOL PRINTER GO BRRR, SO INFLATION" argument—that, frankly, is a conspiracy theory popular today because of everyone's sudden infatuation with Austrian economics via Bitcoin obsession—is kinda myopic and missing the point.
  - willcipriano 5y ago
    My thesis is simple and has remained unchanged since early 2020 when the printing began. Creation of additional currency without the creation of additional demand reduces its value relative to other goods. To your point, a global economic shutdown would to my mind reduce demand for currency, therefore the creation of money in the past few years will cause inflation particularly as velocity picks back up[0]. I could be wrong, but that's a conspiracy theory? Like bigfoot or the moon landing? Come on. Your ideas can't be that fragile to have to resort to name calling like that. [0]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
- kergonath 5y ago
  It’s an exponential, it’s going to look vertical for any sufficiently long time scale, but if you look at it over the last 20 years instead of 60 it’s not vertical anymore. That’s what inflation does over the long term, nothing nefarious there.
- hervature 5y ago
  Yea, years of low inflation and somehow 6.2% is "inflation" during a multi-year pandemic. Up until the 90's, that was considered normal. When my parents went to the bank to buy their first house, the interest rate was double digits. 6.2% is noteworthy but pretty minor given the disruption we experienced and still are experiencing.
  - willcipriano 5y ago
    I've said this theory here before and I used to get responses that said "Where the evidence for the inflation, CPI is 2.5%!" now I get "6.2% isn't really inflation!" soon I'll be getting "Inflation is a good thing!" if history is any guide.

willcipriano 5y ago

The nearly vertical line over the past two years, yes. I don't think you can call simple supply and demand a conspiracy theory. If MMT theorists said that wouldn't cause inflation, I'd call that a conspiracy theory soundly disproven[0]. [0]https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-consumer-prices-spiked-6-2-percent-in-past-year-highest-inflation-rate-since-1990 https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-consumer-prices-spi...

the_gastropod 5y ago
This take is the equivalent of taking a snowball into the halls of congress to refute climate change. We're in the midst of a global pandemic that's had dramatic impacts on international supply chains. Of course prices are volatile. To use this as evidence of the general "LOL PRINTER GO BRRR, SO INFLATION" argument—that, frankly, is a conspiracy theory popular today because of everyone's sudden infatuation with Austrian economics via Bitcoin obsession—is kinda myopic and missing the point.
- willcipriano 5y ago
  My thesis is simple and has remained unchanged since early 2020 when the printing began. Creation of additional currency without the creation of additional demand reduces its value relative to other goods. To your point, a global economic shutdown would to my mind reduce demand for currency, therefore the creation of money in the past few years will cause inflation particularly as velocity picks back up[0]. I could be wrong, but that's a conspiracy theory? Like bigfoot or the moon landing? Come on. Your ideas can't be that fragile to have to resort to name calling like that. [0]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
kergonath 5y ago
It’s an exponential, it’s going to look vertical for any sufficiently long time scale, but if you look at it over the last 20 years instead of 60 it’s not vertical anymore. That’s what inflation does over the long term, nothing nefarious there.
hervature 5y ago
Yea, years of low inflation and somehow 6.2% is "inflation" during a multi-year pandemic. Up until the 90's, that was considered normal. When my parents went to the bank to buy their first house, the interest rate was double digits. 6.2% is noteworthy but pretty minor given the disruption we experienced and still are experiencing.
- willcipriano 5y ago
  I've said this theory here before and I used to get responses that said "Where the evidence for the inflation, CPI is 2.5%!" now I get "6.2% isn't really inflation!" soon I'll be getting "Inflation is a good thing!" if history is any guide.