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That's the takeaway from "Betting on Zero". I kept watching to see the moment when the Ponzi scheme falls apart and Bill Ackman comes out vindicated, and it nev

That's the takeaway from "Betting on Zero". I kept watching to see the moment when the Ponzi scheme falls apart and Bill Ackman comes out vindicated, and it never came. It really is the case that "The market can stay irrational longer then you can stay solvent". There might be an escape velocity of irrationality where a Ponzi schemes can become legitimate.

lostmsu 5y ago
The funny thing is that you assume crypto enthusiasts are the irrational ones.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- Ensorceled 5y ago
  They are spending $$$ for pictures of anthropomorphic monkies and pizzas that are small variants of similar pictures; that's pretty irrational.
  - lostmsu 5y ago
    That is no different from expensive picture collectors. That's a minority of participants.
    - Ensorceled 5y ago
      Expensive picture collectors may also be irrational ...
      - lostmsu 5y ago
        The point is not that they are rational, but that you can't deem the whole crypto market irrational (what the parent does) just because it has NFTs, because then you'd have to deem the regular market irrational too because it has picture collectors. Both markets have some degree of irrationality, and the parent did not show that cryptos have more of it to justify preference of the regular market over crypto.
Applejinx 5y ago
No… the statements 'the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent' is not at all the same as 'the market can stay irrational longer than IT can stay solvent'. There are structural problems at play. It's completely impossible for there to be an escape velocity of irrationality where Ponzi schemes can become legitimate. All you're able to observe is that people with more money than YOU are still playing. That's not the same as escape velocity: the real money is still waiting for its cue to throw the Ponzi scheme under the buss, and you will not get warning of this.

lostmsu 5y ago

The funny thing is that you assume crypto enthusiasts are the irrational ones.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
Ensorceled 5y ago
They are spending $$$ for pictures of anthropomorphic monkies and pizzas that are small variants of similar pictures; that's pretty irrational.
- lostmsu 5y ago
  That is no different from expensive picture collectors. That's a minority of participants.
  - Ensorceled 5y ago
    Expensive picture collectors may also be irrational ...
    - lostmsu 5y ago
      The point is not that they are rational, but that you can't deem the whole crypto market irrational (what the parent does) just because it has NFTs, because then you'd have to deem the regular market irrational too because it has picture collectors. Both markets have some degree of irrationality, and the parent did not show that cryptos have more of it to justify preference of the regular market over crypto.

Applejinx 5y ago

No… the statements 'the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent' is not at all the same as 'the market can stay irrational longer than IT can stay solvent'. There are structural problems at play. It's completely impossible for there to be an escape velocity of irrationality where Ponzi schemes can become legitimate. All you're able to observe is that people with more money than YOU are still playing. That's not the same as escape velocity: the real money is still waiting for its cue to throw the Ponzi scheme under the buss, and you will not get warning of this.