Over what timeframe? It can't be yearly. The population of NZ is 5,000,000. The smoking rate is 12%. A saving of $5B/y would mean $8,333 per smoker, per year

Over what timeframe? It can't be yearly. The population of NZ is 5,000,000. The smoking rate is 12%. A saving of $5B/y would mean $8,333 per smoker, per year. Don't forget that a typical smoker in NZ might pay about $5000/y in tobacco tax ($100/w for 2.5 packs or 1 pouch per week taxed at 80%+). Let's call it a saving of $13,333/y then. But wait! This $5B figure obviously can't be based on eliminating smoking, just a reduction. So the estimate must be based on saving much more than $13,333/y for each smoker this 'stops'. On top of that, smokers on average die much younger than non-smokers. Healthcare costs are mostly accrued in old age.