I don’t find prediction markets too convincing, especially after my experience betting on the US election last year. One month after the election there were sti

I don’t find prediction markets too convincing, especially after my experience betting on the US election last year. One month after the election there were still markets with greater than 10% odds on Trump winning states that had already certified Biden. It was great for me, I made some good money, but it definitely downgraded prediction markets in my mind from “uncannily accurate” to “good but not perfect”. They’re not going to predict Black Swans or other odd things in a way you can rely on.