4 ms·
I'm a big fan of prediction markets, where people wager their own money on clear yes/no propositions, and you get a payoff if you buy shares on the winning side
by dtgriscom 5y ago
I'm a big fan of prediction markets, where people wager their own money on clear yes/no propositions, and you get a payoff if you buy shares on the winning side. It's a great way to tap the "wisdom of the crowd," even if you don't put up your own money.
Which brings me to the JWST. I'd love to know how likely it is that this amazing (and amazingly complex) tool actually succeeds in its goals. There's no way I could figure it out myself; I'd have to take someone else's word for it. Unless... there is a prediction market somewhere betting on whether the JWST will succeed, so I can piggyback on others' research and self-interest. I haven't been able to find one though. (Perhaps people think betting "against" success is too macabre.)
Anyone want to throw out a likelihood of success? (My WAG: 70%.)
- Uehreka 5y agoI don’t find prediction markets too convincing, especially after my experience betting on the US election last year. One month after the election there were still markets with greater than 10% odds on Trump winning states that had already certified Biden. It was great for me, I made some good money, but it definitely downgraded prediction markets in my mind from “uncannily accurate” to “good but not perfect”. They’re not going to predict Black Swans or other odd things in a way you can rely on.