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I think the essay is strongly written — never is a strong word — but it resonated with me because of a personal experience. In that experience part of the prob

I think the essay is strongly written — never is a strong word — but it resonated with me because of a personal experience. In that experience part of the problem was that those who disagreed with the group were purged out of the group one way or another, either because they chose to exit out of disgust or because they were driven away, or something in between. So there was a "survivorship bias" in the group, where "surviving" sort of meant staying with the group. It's interesting to think about how this applies to your WWI examples, where the people in the position of admitting mistake are still alive, and there's a very literal survivorship bias with regard to group membership. Anyway, when you have an entity that can change in composition, it affects what is involved in admitting to mistakes, because the people making the mistakes might be different from those who would admit to them.

madaxe_again 5y ago
Indeed - my personal experience of this was at my business - I would admit my and our mistakes to the extent that the perception became that I was the source of all of our failures. My partner was and is a person who is never wrong, never fails, never makes a mistake - it’s always someone else who stymied his ambitions, or circumstance, or just bad luck. Never an error. I left, after a decade. It was partly of my own volition, but the moment I voiced the possibility he, and our investor, couldn’t show me the door quickly enough. Now, here’s the rub. I’ve been gone for nearly six years. In that time their revenue has fallen by 80%, their core product has been axed, and I am still the scapegoat. Even when they ultimately fail completely, which they will, and soon, as none of the issues I identified have been addressed, I am certain that they will go down crying “damn you, madaxe_again”. Reality, commercial or not, is purely a matter of perception.
- 77pt77 5y ago
  Reality is not a matter of perception, but humans' reaction to it is. Until reality is inescapable.
  - hef19898 5y ago
    Reality is a bitch, and when it hits, it hits hard. Also, the later it hits, the harder it does so.
  - mro_name 5y ago
    "Reality is what you can't change" (Bazon Brock, Philosopher)
- dstick 5y ago
  You sound like a great person to work with and for. And I applaud your healthy look on the situation. Which can’t always have been / be, easy. But you’re wearing that scapegoat mantle with pride, and a touch of compassion. Some people just never learn. Best to stay clear of them and accept the way they think of you. You know better. You did the right thing.
- serjester 5y ago
  I have the same mindset but I don't think you appreciate the effect it has on the broader team. Yes you might have a specific individual that avoids taking responsibility but in my experience everyone picks up on this. People have a very strong intuitive smell for this kind of stuff. So in the longterm all someone does is burn leadership capital trying to pretend they're perfect. This isn't a viable strategy for succeeding in your career.
- laurent92 5y ago
  My father incites me to apologize often for saying true things that aren’t nice. There are two approaches, and I believe you are pointing something correct. If you apologize on any aspect, it is a well-known effect that you entirely revoke your legitimacy from the group. In the woke culture for example, the first who apologize has to also quit and lose its career entirely, it’s a recurring problem. The second approach is never to apologize. It’s annoying, but it keeps people in check. It’s an attribute of real power: making huge visible mistakes and not having to say something about it. And this is what wins in our current culture. People will accept your authority and you will avoid being the scapegoat, people will criticize a bit but much less (and that it the surprising effect) than if you say “I’m sorry”. The looks of an apology seems to trigger a reaction of entire reject from the group, even if your words were carefully measured and balanced. I empathize that you’ve lost your business to this. I sounded like you would instill an awesome culture where people recognize mistakes…
  - catlikesshrimp 5y ago
    "If you apologize on any aspect, it is a well-known effect that you entirely revoke your legitimacy from the group" Modern approach to civil conflict. Maybe there should be a focus-group that teaches employees to acknowledge ("to own", as they preach) their mistakes?
    - DarylZero 5y ago
      It's not about how they do it but about what are the consequences.
- hef19898 5y ago
  That happens all the time. I think I am slowly getting the point of the story about Casandra. People that realize issues, voice them and raise them be properly addressed are almost never heard. Especially when these issues go against whatever group think narrative is in place. Those people also are the scapegoats when the bad things they predicted actually do happen. Because, hey, they knew it. So why didn't they do something about it? I feel you, usually I am one of the people to raise those issues. Now I am trying a different approach, being very careful how I voice that stuff, and making sure I do it indirectly wherever possible in those rare occasions I do. The rest of the time, I just try to keep my mouth shut. Kudos so for sticking around for 10 years.
  - madaxe_again 5y ago
    I ended up with an almighty Cassandra complex, and by the time I left I was almost prepared to believe that I was the source of the issues I flagged. Hindsight, however, is everything - most of the engineering team left in my wake, and all that remains is a hollowed out core of sycophantic middle management. They went from an improbable 0% client churn to a revolving door of unhappy customers. Truly, it was a shame - and remains so - for my sake, however, my departure was the best thing I could have done, as it saved what precious threads of sanity I had remaining. I still hope for the sake of the once-friend I started the business with that he yet learns something. How does it go? For of all sad words of tongue or pen, The saddest are these: 'It might have been!'.
  - native_samples 5y ago
    This pretty much sums up the last two years of fighting COVID. Governments/media/academics: we will solve the problem by doing X. Sceptics: that won't work / isn't working / hasn't worked. Governments/media/academics: it isn't working because of the unbelievers.
    - hef19898 5y ago
      Academics mostly got it right, media thrived on conflict and false-balance while politics, especially German politics, were more concerned about elections than anything else.
- Fnoord 5y ago
  Would you say, in hindsight, that your partner was the wrong fit for you?
  - madaxe_again 5y ago
    As the business developed, certainly - however in the early days our mutual antagonism served us well - every decision was challenged, and his ying to my yang meant that we got off to a roaring start. Unfortunately in latter years, this became more of an impediment than a boon, as I ended up spending a majority of my time disentangling situations he refused to even acknowledge the existence of. I can fight an uphill battle with gusto, but when it was against my own ally, it became utterly demoralising.
Symmetry 5y ago
In extreme cases you have evaporative heating of groups where after some major setback all the more moderate members leave and the remainder are on average more attached to the group and more fanatical. This is pretty common to see when religious cults have prophesies that fail to pan out.
- renewiltord 5y ago
  The WSJ had a piece many years ago about this happening to the Muslim Brotherhood as the moderate members, who were more visible and accessible, were arrested forcing the group to become more fundamentalist. Found that interesting. "The more you tighten your grip, the more star systems..." I never did validate if that claim about the Muslim Brotherhood stood the test of time but I found the thing interesting in the moment.
  - selimthegrim 5y ago
    the new vintage of Hamas, brought to you by Israeli intelligence
    - wahern 5y ago
      Isn't Hamas an example of the opposite dynamic--of becoming less fanatical? Yes, Hamas leads violent, armed protests from the Gaza Strip. But there's arguably been less violence compared to the armed conflicts they induced on and across the Lebanese border. Once they began to independently govern (not withstanding lack of Israeli recognition) the Gaza Strip they had to soften their stance somewhat, similar to the PLO, which is an even better example. This points in the direction of another commenter who mentioned that it's a matter of incentives. Yes, many groups are seemingly defined by their particular disposition on certain issues. But toss some strong incentives into the mix and some of those groups turn out to not be quite as intransigent as thought. Although the Hamas and PLO duo shows the limits to that--Hamas responded to incentive, but definitely not as strongly as the PLO did, perhaps precisely because the PLO holds the more moderate ground, and Hamas as a group distinguishes itself from the PLO in that way. I'd wager that if you could magically extinguish the PLO, then it's likely Hamas would either become more moderate or split in order to fill that vacuum.
jimkleiber 5y ago
> I think the essay is strongly written — never is a strong word — but it resonated with me because of a personal experience. I struggle to hear someone use "never" and other absolutist language—as the author does—and imagine they are likely to admit a mistake as well. I think it can depend on how certain a group is, or as you mention, how the certain ones drive the less certain ones out of the group. I can imagine if there are people in a group who say "always" "never" "the best" "the worst" a lot, then yes, the more doubtful ones may leave and the group may become even more convicted in their rightness. However, I don't think every group follows that path, possibly not having such people clinging to certainty or even if they do, the ones with more humility working together to downgrade the hubris. Secondly, if you can't tell, I can feel quite frustrated when people speak with such certainty, and I'm grateful and impressed that you seemed able to look past that in the author's writing.
passion__desire 5y ago
Just like it takes time for probabilites to flow from one atomic orbital to another, I would assume this could form basis for the analogy for why it takes time for groups to change their mind. Atomic Orbitals, Visualized Dynamically - https://youtu.be/BPkcDWLBsrI?t=412 https://youtu.be/BPkcDWLBsrI?t=412

madaxe_again 5y ago

Indeed - my personal experience of this was at my business - I would admit my and our mistakes to the extent that the perception became that I was the source of all of our failures. My partner was and is a person who is never wrong, never fails, never makes a mistake - it’s always someone else who stymied his ambitions, or circumstance, or just bad luck. Never an error. I left, after a decade. It was partly of my own volition, but the moment I voiced the possibility he, and our investor, couldn’t show me the door quickly enough. Now, here’s the rub. I’ve been gone for nearly six years. In that time their revenue has fallen by 80%, their core product has been axed, and I am still the scapegoat. Even when they ultimately fail completely, which they will, and soon, as none of the issues I identified have been addressed, I am certain that they will go down crying “damn you, madaxe_again”. Reality, commercial or not, is purely a matter of perception.

77pt77 5y ago
Reality is not a matter of perception, but humans' reaction to it is. Until reality is inescapable.
- hef19898 5y ago
  Reality is a bitch, and when it hits, it hits hard. Also, the later it hits, the harder it does so.
- mro_name 5y ago
  "Reality is what you can't change" (Bazon Brock, Philosopher)
dstick 5y ago
You sound like a great person to work with and for. And I applaud your healthy look on the situation. Which can’t always have been / be, easy. But you’re wearing that scapegoat mantle with pride, and a touch of compassion. Some people just never learn. Best to stay clear of them and accept the way they think of you. You know better. You did the right thing.
serjester 5y ago
I have the same mindset but I don't think you appreciate the effect it has on the broader team. Yes you might have a specific individual that avoids taking responsibility but in my experience everyone picks up on this. People have a very strong intuitive smell for this kind of stuff. So in the longterm all someone does is burn leadership capital trying to pretend they're perfect. This isn't a viable strategy for succeeding in your career.
laurent92 5y ago
My father incites me to apologize often for saying true things that aren’t nice. There are two approaches, and I believe you are pointing something correct. If you apologize on any aspect, it is a well-known effect that you entirely revoke your legitimacy from the group. In the woke culture for example, the first who apologize has to also quit and lose its career entirely, it’s a recurring problem. The second approach is never to apologize. It’s annoying, but it keeps people in check. It’s an attribute of real power: making huge visible mistakes and not having to say something about it. And this is what wins in our current culture. People will accept your authority and you will avoid being the scapegoat, people will criticize a bit but much less (and that it the surprising effect) than if you say “I’m sorry”. The looks of an apology seems to trigger a reaction of entire reject from the group, even if your words were carefully measured and balanced. I empathize that you’ve lost your business to this. I sounded like you would instill an awesome culture where people recognize mistakes…
- catlikesshrimp 5y ago
  "If you apologize on any aspect, it is a well-known effect that you entirely revoke your legitimacy from the group" Modern approach to civil conflict. Maybe there should be a focus-group that teaches employees to acknowledge ("to own", as they preach) their mistakes?
  - DarylZero 5y ago
    It's not about how they do it but about what are the consequences.
hef19898 5y ago
That happens all the time. I think I am slowly getting the point of the story about Casandra. People that realize issues, voice them and raise them be properly addressed are almost never heard. Especially when these issues go against whatever group think narrative is in place. Those people also are the scapegoats when the bad things they predicted actually do happen. Because, hey, they knew it. So why didn't they do something about it? I feel you, usually I am one of the people to raise those issues. Now I am trying a different approach, being very careful how I voice that stuff, and making sure I do it indirectly wherever possible in those rare occasions I do. The rest of the time, I just try to keep my mouth shut. Kudos so for sticking around for 10 years.
- madaxe_again 5y ago
  I ended up with an almighty Cassandra complex, and by the time I left I was almost prepared to believe that I was the source of the issues I flagged. Hindsight, however, is everything - most of the engineering team left in my wake, and all that remains is a hollowed out core of sycophantic middle management. They went from an improbable 0% client churn to a revolving door of unhappy customers. Truly, it was a shame - and remains so - for my sake, however, my departure was the best thing I could have done, as it saved what precious threads of sanity I had remaining. I still hope for the sake of the once-friend I started the business with that he yet learns something. How does it go? For of all sad words of tongue or pen, The saddest are these: 'It might have been!'.
- native_samples 5y ago
  This pretty much sums up the last two years of fighting COVID. Governments/media/academics: we will solve the problem by doing X. Sceptics: that won't work / isn't working / hasn't worked. Governments/media/academics: it isn't working because of the unbelievers.
  - hef19898 5y ago
    Academics mostly got it right, media thrived on conflict and false-balance while politics, especially German politics, were more concerned about elections than anything else.
Fnoord 5y ago
Would you say, in hindsight, that your partner was the wrong fit for you?
- madaxe_again 5y ago
  As the business developed, certainly - however in the early days our mutual antagonism served us well - every decision was challenged, and his ying to my yang meant that we got off to a roaring start. Unfortunately in latter years, this became more of an impediment than a boon, as I ended up spending a majority of my time disentangling situations he refused to even acknowledge the existence of. I can fight an uphill battle with gusto, but when it was against my own ally, it became utterly demoralising.

Symmetry 5y ago

In extreme cases you have evaporative heating of groups where after some major setback all the more moderate members leave and the remainder are on average more attached to the group and more fanatical. This is pretty common to see when religious cults have prophesies that fail to pan out.

renewiltord 5y ago
The WSJ had a piece many years ago about this happening to the Muslim Brotherhood as the moderate members, who were more visible and accessible, were arrested forcing the group to become more fundamentalist. Found that interesting. "The more you tighten your grip, the more star systems..." I never did validate if that claim about the Muslim Brotherhood stood the test of time but I found the thing interesting in the moment.
- selimthegrim 5y ago
  the new vintage of Hamas, brought to you by Israeli intelligence
  - wahern 5y ago
    Isn't Hamas an example of the opposite dynamic--of becoming less fanatical? Yes, Hamas leads violent, armed protests from the Gaza Strip. But there's arguably been less violence compared to the armed conflicts they induced on and across the Lebanese border. Once they began to independently govern (not withstanding lack of Israeli recognition) the Gaza Strip they had to soften their stance somewhat, similar to the PLO, which is an even better example. This points in the direction of another commenter who mentioned that it's a matter of incentives. Yes, many groups are seemingly defined by their particular disposition on certain issues. But toss some strong incentives into the mix and some of those groups turn out to not be quite as intransigent as thought. Although the Hamas and PLO duo shows the limits to that--Hamas responded to incentive, but definitely not as strongly as the PLO did, perhaps precisely because the PLO holds the more moderate ground, and Hamas as a group distinguishes itself from the PLO in that way. I'd wager that if you could magically extinguish the PLO, then it's likely Hamas would either become more moderate or split in order to fill that vacuum.

jimkleiber 5y ago

> I think the essay is strongly written — never is a strong word — but it resonated with me because of a personal experience. I struggle to hear someone use "never" and other absolutist language—as the author does—and imagine they are likely to admit a mistake as well. I think it can depend on how certain a group is, or as you mention, how the certain ones drive the less certain ones out of the group. I can imagine if there are people in a group who say "always" "never" "the best" "the worst" a lot, then yes, the more doubtful ones may leave and the group may become even more convicted in their rightness. However, I don't think every group follows that path, possibly not having such people clinging to certainty or even if they do, the ones with more humility working together to downgrade the hubris. Secondly, if you can't tell, I can feel quite frustrated when people speak with such certainty, and I'm grateful and impressed that you seemed able to look past that in the author's writing.

passion__desire 5y ago

Just like it takes time for probabilites to flow from one atomic orbital to another, I would assume this could form basis for the analogy for why it takes time for groups to change their mind. Atomic Orbitals, Visualized Dynamically - https://youtu.be/BPkcDWLBsrI?t=412 https://youtu.be/BPkcDWLBsrI?t=412