5 ms·

there is a great article on this in the new yorker that has been discussed here a few times. Won some awards for its writing too: https://www.newyorker.com/maga

there is a great article on this in the new yorker that has been discussed here a few times. Won some awards for its writing too: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big...

1shooner 5y ago
My favorite line from that article: >Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.”
- blacksmith_tb 5y ago
  Somehow I don't find that too reassuring, even though I am several miles east of I-5... but my house is new construction, and had to pass seismic inspection, so there's some hope.
- Asparagirl 5y ago
  These too: "Until 1974, the state of Oregon had no seismic code...seventy-five per cent of all structures in the state are not designed to withstand a major Cascadia quake..." "The shaking from the Cascadia quake will set off landslides throughout the region—up to thirty thousand of them in Seattle alone...Fifteen per cent of Seattle is built on liquefiable land, including seventeen day-care centers and the homes of some thirty-four thousand five hundred people..." "On the coast, those numbers go up. Whoever chooses or has no choice but to stay there will spend three to six months without electricity, one to three years without drinking water and sewage systems, and three or more years without hospitals..."
  - jldugger 5y ago
    So, time to add a lifestraw and shovel to the go bag.
    - bshipp 5y ago
      A 'go bag' containing enough food to survive months would be rather unwieldy to carry around. Hopefully it survives the initial earthquake in an accessible location so permit bugging out. However, its not much use if the house has collapsed or you're stuck at work.
      - jldugger 5y ago
        Fortunately, it just needs to get me east of I5, right?
        bshipp 5y ago
        Ah, I misunderstood. I was thinking someone was trying to make it through to the other side without leaving. In the situation you're describing, you're certainly correct that it's easily carried insurance. Although I'd leave the shovel. The ground is already going to be so toxic that a little bit of poop on the way isn't going to even be noticed. Might as well save the weight in the pack.
        jldugger 5y ago
        My congratulations on your commitment to carrying the joke forward.
        jldugger 5y ago
        > I was thinking someone was trying to make it through to the other side without leaving. I feel like you're describing a "stay bag."
      - kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 5y ago
        I have 3 months of MREs for a family of four that fit in two buckets. Easily left in the trunk of the car, but don't forget about water!
Asparagirl 5y ago
Yes, that article is a classic, in the Venn diagram intersection of "hard science explained well" and "creative ways to get historical data" and "both local and federal government failure to plan or address known issues" and "we were warned" and "absolute nightmare fuel". If/when the Cascadia superquake kicks off, everyone will be passing that link around, so you may as well read it now.
- redisman 5y ago
  What would you have them do? Have everyone move out of the PNW?
  - Asparagirl 5y ago
    It's not up to me, so please temper that impulse to shoot the messenger. But retrofitting or even rebuilding homes, schools, hospitals, bridges, etc. would be a great start. Proactively holding more mandatory earthquake drills, not just in schools. Adding Earthquake Early Warning devices to schools, office buildings, power stations, transit (which would slow down or stop the train before the shaking starts). Adding more seismic sensors to the currently very sparse Early Warning network, to get better data and therefore better predictions and more warning time to people living away from the epicenter; even ten or fifteen seconds of warning could prevent some injuries. More info: https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/early-warningshakealertr https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/early-warni... and https://www.shakealert.org/implementation/wea/ https://www.shakealert.org/implementation/wea/ and https://www.pnsn.org https://www.pnsn.org
  - robocat 5y ago
    Look at what first world countries do just after major earthquakes. Do some of that. I live in Christchurch, New Zealand, and there were some obvious deficiencies in planning before the 2010 quake, and some obvious fixes were done after the 2010 quake. The main problem is convincing the cynical private and public that some prevention is worth paying for. Also the statistical victims are often not those that are making the financial choices.

1shooner 5y ago

My favorite line from that article: >Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.”

blacksmith_tb 5y ago
Somehow I don't find that too reassuring, even though I am several miles east of I-5... but my house is new construction, and had to pass seismic inspection, so there's some hope.
Asparagirl 5y ago
These too: "Until 1974, the state of Oregon had no seismic code...seventy-five per cent of all structures in the state are not designed to withstand a major Cascadia quake..." "The shaking from the Cascadia quake will set off landslides throughout the region—up to thirty thousand of them in Seattle alone...Fifteen per cent of Seattle is built on liquefiable land, including seventeen day-care centers and the homes of some thirty-four thousand five hundred people..." "On the coast, those numbers go up. Whoever chooses or has no choice but to stay there will spend three to six months without electricity, one to three years without drinking water and sewage systems, and three or more years without hospitals..."
- jldugger 5y ago
  So, time to add a lifestraw and shovel to the go bag.
  - bshipp 5y ago
    A 'go bag' containing enough food to survive months would be rather unwieldy to carry around. Hopefully it survives the initial earthquake in an accessible location so permit bugging out. However, its not much use if the house has collapsed or you're stuck at work.
    - jldugger 5y ago
      Fortunately, it just needs to get me east of I5, right?
      - bshipp 5y ago
        Ah, I misunderstood. I was thinking someone was trying to make it through to the other side without leaving. In the situation you're describing, you're certainly correct that it's easily carried insurance. Although I'd leave the shovel. The ground is already going to be so toxic that a little bit of poop on the way isn't going to even be noticed. Might as well save the weight in the pack.
        jldugger 5y ago
        My congratulations on your commitment to carrying the joke forward.
        jldugger 5y ago
        > I was thinking someone was trying to make it through to the other side without leaving. I feel like you're describing a "stay bag."
    - kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 5y ago
      I have 3 months of MREs for a family of four that fit in two buckets. Easily left in the trunk of the car, but don't forget about water!

Asparagirl 5y ago

Yes, that article is a classic, in the Venn diagram intersection of "hard science explained well" and "creative ways to get historical data" and "both local and federal government failure to plan or address known issues" and "we were warned" and "absolute nightmare fuel". If/when the Cascadia superquake kicks off, everyone will be passing that link around, so you may as well read it now.

redisman 5y ago
What would you have them do? Have everyone move out of the PNW?
- Asparagirl 5y ago
  It's not up to me, so please temper that impulse to shoot the messenger. But retrofitting or even rebuilding homes, schools, hospitals, bridges, etc. would be a great start. Proactively holding more mandatory earthquake drills, not just in schools. Adding Earthquake Early Warning devices to schools, office buildings, power stations, transit (which would slow down or stop the train before the shaking starts). Adding more seismic sensors to the currently very sparse Early Warning network, to get better data and therefore better predictions and more warning time to people living away from the epicenter; even ten or fifteen seconds of warning could prevent some injuries. More info: https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/early-warningshakealertr https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/early-warni... and https://www.shakealert.org/implementation/wea/ https://www.shakealert.org/implementation/wea/ and https://www.pnsn.org https://www.pnsn.org
- robocat 5y ago
  Look at what first world countries do just after major earthquakes. Do some of that. I live in Christchurch, New Zealand, and there were some obvious deficiencies in planning before the 2010 quake, and some obvious fixes were done after the 2010 quake. The main problem is convincing the cynical private and public that some prevention is worth paying for. Also the statistical victims are often not those that are making the financial choices.