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Right, but it's not doing all this while trying to dodge SAM missiles, avoid radars, push the envelope of what it's capable aerodynamically, continuously evalua

Right, but it's not doing all this while trying to dodge SAM missiles, avoid radars, push the envelope of what it's capable aerodynamically, continuously evaluate a dynamic situation, identify the actual goal (it could be moving, hiding etc.), yada yada yada. Also, losing an aircraft, crewed or not, is further liability - ideally you want to scramble the debris before the enemy can get to it to recover whatever intelligence remains. The months and years that military pilots spend in training is not just "driving license", but how to best operate a sophisticated destruction machine. Comparing military jets to the capabilities of commercial drones is massively missing the point of the actual challenges of airborne warfare. These probably aren't unsolvable problems, I'm not saying we can never replace crewed jets with drones, there are just fundamental reasons why this isn't happening right now.

mrtksn 5y ago
Of course, drones are not a drop-in replacement for fighter jets with pilots but IMHO drones are inherently superior on most aspects and the shortcomings are solvable problems. A bit like, Archers having some advantages over rifles but overall rifles being vay superior making archers irrelevant.
- rich_sasha 5y ago
  It's a great analogy actually. See here for example: https://www.technologyreview.com/2011/01/12/89319/the-puzzling-evolution-of-guns-versus-bows/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2011/01/12/89319/the-puzzli... Firearms took over bows in Europe around 16th century. But they have been around for far longer, as early as 13th century, possibly much earlier too. Even when firearms took over, they were in many ways inferior to bows. The crucial difference was that they required less skill to operate, so much easier from a general logistical point of view. Training longbowmen in medieval England was a whole massive social project. So even being the long-term solution doesn't make something the right solution right now, the time gap until it takes over can be very long, and even once it is the right solution, it might not be due to actual technical superiority (at least not initially) but rather wider strategic considerations. And just to stem the thought, this wasn't because people in the past were stoopid, humans have always devoted a huge amount of skill, cunning and attention to warmongering. Technological progress in military technology was always rapid (if likely slower than today), we just don't see it that way, since one bow kinda looks the same as another to us - but could be an enormous advantage.

mrtksn 5y ago

Of course, drones are not a drop-in replacement for fighter jets with pilots but IMHO drones are inherently superior on most aspects and the shortcomings are solvable problems. A bit like, Archers having some advantages over rifles but overall rifles being vay superior making archers irrelevant.

rich_sasha 5y ago
It's a great analogy actually. See here for example: https://www.technologyreview.com/2011/01/12/89319/the-puzzling-evolution-of-guns-versus-bows/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2011/01/12/89319/the-puzzli... Firearms took over bows in Europe around 16th century. But they have been around for far longer, as early as 13th century, possibly much earlier too. Even when firearms took over, they were in many ways inferior to bows. The crucial difference was that they required less skill to operate, so much easier from a general logistical point of view. Training longbowmen in medieval England was a whole massive social project. So even being the long-term solution doesn't make something the right solution right now, the time gap until it takes over can be very long, and even once it is the right solution, it might not be due to actual technical superiority (at least not initially) but rather wider strategic considerations. And just to stem the thought, this wasn't because people in the past were stoopid, humans have always devoted a huge amount of skill, cunning and attention to warmongering. Technological progress in military technology was always rapid (if likely slower than today), we just don't see it that way, since one bow kinda looks the same as another to us - but could be an enormous advantage.