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> Similarly, planes operating in the middle of Poland can attack targets in Kaliningrad - another crucial strategic ability for Polish defense. If that happens

> Similarly, planes operating in the middle of Poland can attack targets in Kaliningrad - another crucial strategic ability for Polish defense. If that happens, i.e. a NATO country directly attacking Russia, then a nuclear war starts. I'd put China in the same basket, also Pakistan if it gets attacked by India or vice-versa. Proxy-wars (to use your example Poland attacking Belarus) are of course more complicated.

drran 5y ago
NATO is a defense alliance. If RF will directly attack a NATO country, then a nuclear war will begin. When a NATO country attacks another country, NATO will not be involved. EDIT: I'm wrong about Afghanistan.
- Mvandenbergh 5y ago
  >For example: USA war against Afghanistan. The US successfully invoked NATO article 5 after 9/11 requiring all NATO members to assist militarily.
  - jean_tta 5y ago
    This is either satire or the worst possible example, since the war in Afghanistan is the only time in history article 5 has been used.
hagbard_c 5y ago
I assume the Polish attack on Russian or Belarusian forces would come in reaction to a Russian or Belarusian attack, in which case NATO should already have come to the aid of Poland. Things can get muddled in the light of the alternative ways of "waging war" which Belarus seems to be engaged in - e.g. inviting thousands of migrants with promises of an easy passage into the EU, providing them with simple armaments [1] and positioning them on the Polish border with no way of retreat back in to Belarus - which has led to both NATO as well as Russian forces to converge on the scene [2], a situation in which the question of "who fired the first shot" is hard to answer. [1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/16/belarus-arming-migrants-stun-grenades-amid-worst-clashes-far/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/16/belarus-ar... [2] https://www.itv.com/news/2021-11-12/russia-sends-paratroopers-to-belarus-amid-tensions-with-poland-over-migrants https://www.itv.com/news/2021-11-12/russia-sends-paratrooper...
michaelt 5y ago
In theory, sure. But Ukraine is right on the border of Poland. And what we saw in Ukraine is by the time Paris, London and Berlin notice something is amiss, Russia has already achieved their goals. And the fear-of-triggering-WW3 goes both ways. I can believe Poland would want to be well equipped, so they can hold out for a few days so their allies have time to mobilise.

drran 5y ago

NATO is a defense alliance. If RF will directly attack a NATO country, then a nuclear war will begin. When a NATO country attacks another country, NATO will not be involved. EDIT: I'm wrong about Afghanistan.

Mvandenbergh 5y ago
>For example: USA war against Afghanistan. The US successfully invoked NATO article 5 after 9/11 requiring all NATO members to assist militarily.
- jean_tta 5y ago
  This is either satire or the worst possible example, since the war in Afghanistan is the only time in history article 5 has been used.

hagbard_c 5y ago

I assume the Polish attack on Russian or Belarusian forces would come in reaction to a Russian or Belarusian attack, in which case NATO should already have come to the aid of Poland. Things can get muddled in the light of the alternative ways of "waging war" which Belarus seems to be engaged in - e.g. inviting thousands of migrants with promises of an easy passage into the EU, providing them with simple armaments [1] and positioning them on the Polish border with no way of retreat back in to Belarus - which has led to both NATO as well as Russian forces to converge on the scene [2], a situation in which the question of "who fired the first shot" is hard to answer. [1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/16/belarus-arming-migrants-stun-grenades-amid-worst-clashes-far/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/16/belarus-ar... [2] https://www.itv.com/news/2021-11-12/russia-sends-paratroopers-to-belarus-amid-tensions-with-poland-over-migrants https://www.itv.com/news/2021-11-12/russia-sends-paratrooper...

michaelt 5y ago

In theory, sure. But Ukraine is right on the border of Poland. And what we saw in Ukraine is by the time Paris, London and Berlin notice something is amiss, Russia has already achieved their goals. And the fear-of-triggering-WW3 goes both ways. I can believe Poland would want to be well equipped, so they can hold out for a few days so their allies have time to mobilise.