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The drones have a big problem in that they can be knocked out of communications with the ground support infrastructure using fairly cheap portable ECM equipment

The drones have a big problem in that they can be knocked out of communications with the ground support infrastructure using fairly cheap portable ECM equipment so have a limited scope for usage limited to friendly skies or roles that is being filled efficiently by current-gen missiles as it is. The days when manned bombers played any role in the first strike against an capable foe ended decades ago, today's fighters are used when you need on the spot decision making whether it is to interdict errant civilian planes or provide close air support to infantry.

ChuckNorris89 5y ago
>The drones have a big problem in that they can be knocked out of communications with the ground support infrastructure using fairly cheap portable ECM equipment What about autonomous drones? Can't you have AI piloted drones with ML models trained on thousands of hours of combat missions, where you just punch in the mission objective and the acceptable outcome/casualty levels, and it can decide for itself how to carry it out if communication is lost? That feels terrifying but it does sound like where the future is going.
- Stranger43 5y ago
  yes for missions that does not change underway or where the objectives don't contain loosely defined objectives with moral ambiguity, and for the vast amount of those you don't really need anything beyond and 80ies computer system running relatively conventional procedural code, which is why they have been performed using cruise missiles or artillery for decades. The problem is that the missions flown requires a lot more judgement then modern machine learning is capable of providing, or that we are likely to entrust solely to an computer anytime soon. Yes the skynet scenario is increasingly likely but it's also something military planners are aware of especially doing periods of diplomatic tensions like the ones we are under now where you really don't want an trigger happy automated defence system in charge of fully armed missiles. There is also the issue that all we know is that the next war will have it's own entirely new politically defined strategic constraints, where the most effective tactical strategy is might be blocked out due to long term diplomatic/political consequences.
gspr 5y ago
Honest question: how do modern manned fighters fare when attacked with said ECM? Sure, they keep flying, but my impression was that a lot of the advantage of e.g. the F35 comes from communications and information flow.
joosters 5y ago
The drones have a big problem in that they can be knocked out of communications with the ground support infrastructure using fairly cheap portable ECM equipment I am nowhere near an expert on this subject, but it seems to me that drones could be very resistant to ground-based jamming. All their antennas and communications can be above the plane, perhaps relayed via another drone or aircraft flying very high overhead.

ChuckNorris89 5y ago

>The drones have a big problem in that they can be knocked out of communications with the ground support infrastructure using fairly cheap portable ECM equipment What about autonomous drones? Can't you have AI piloted drones with ML models trained on thousands of hours of combat missions, where you just punch in the mission objective and the acceptable outcome/casualty levels, and it can decide for itself how to carry it out if communication is lost? That feels terrifying but it does sound like where the future is going.

Stranger43 5y ago
yes for missions that does not change underway or where the objectives don't contain loosely defined objectives with moral ambiguity, and for the vast amount of those you don't really need anything beyond and 80ies computer system running relatively conventional procedural code, which is why they have been performed using cruise missiles or artillery for decades. The problem is that the missions flown requires a lot more judgement then modern machine learning is capable of providing, or that we are likely to entrust solely to an computer anytime soon. Yes the skynet scenario is increasingly likely but it's also something military planners are aware of especially doing periods of diplomatic tensions like the ones we are under now where you really don't want an trigger happy automated defence system in charge of fully armed missiles. There is also the issue that all we know is that the next war will have it's own entirely new politically defined strategic constraints, where the most effective tactical strategy is might be blocked out due to long term diplomatic/political consequences.

gspr 5y ago

Honest question: how do modern manned fighters fare when attacked with said ECM? Sure, they keep flying, but my impression was that a lot of the advantage of e.g. the F35 comes from communications and information flow.

joosters 5y ago

The drones have a big problem in that they can be knocked out of communications with the ground support infrastructure using fairly cheap portable ECM equipment I am nowhere near an expert on this subject, but it seems to me that drones could be very resistant to ground-based jamming. All their antennas and communications can be above the plane, perhaps relayed via another drone or aircraft flying very high overhead.