3 ms·

From everything I've heard, Omicron is much less dangerous than Delta or previous strands. Also, I've read that the Spanish flu ended with a fourth variant that

by bko 5y ago

From everything I've heard, Omicron is much less dangerous than Delta or previous strands. Also, I've read that the Spanish flu ended with a fourth variant that was much milder than previous variants. Assuming natural immunity is better than vaccine, and this variant is very mild, this is probably the one you want to get. What if boosters are being pushed at the worst possible time? With boosters you're less likely to get Covid, and what we've seen is that vaccines have a relatively short period in which they are effective. If you skip this variant, couldn't you get affected by a much less mild variant once the resistance wears off? What am I missing here? That being said, you should probably listen to your local authorities / doctors which are currently advocating everyone get a booster.

anshumankmr 5y ago
Who can truly know if it will stop evolving?
- rolph 5y ago
  a possibility is shift of spike target specificity toward other than ACE2. in the case of MERS there is a major difference in outcome of disease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome%E2%80%93related_coronavirus#Tropism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndro...
  - anshumankmr 5y ago
    I wasn't able to understand. Will have to look this up. Do you have a simpler source for this?
    - rolph 5y ago
      I hope this helps... as it stands covid 19 uses a protien called ACE2 to enter a cell, just disturbing the ACE2 is enough to cause patho physiology. if the virus changes enough it can fit other protiens. an example of this is comparison of mers with sars. mers does not use ACE2, it uses DPP4. the DPP4 is directly related to apoptosis [procedural death or "scuttling"] disturbance of DPP4 causes very pathological state and often death of the cell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dipeptidyl_peptidase-4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dipeptidyl_peptidase-4 the mortality rate of mers was observed as 35% vs sars cov19 mortality in the range of 1 or 2 deaths per thousand
- retrac 5y ago
  > stop evolving When it's extinct.
  - anshumankmr 5y ago
    I don't think this will ever go away. For example, HIV and MERS is still out there. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2021-DON333 https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2... https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet Sure, one of these is more prevalent than the other but it becoming extinct seems unlikely to me unless something like an asteroid hits earth.
dragontamer 5y ago
Lets hold off on predictions until we actually get some data. South Africa's hospitalization rate is beginning to take off exponentially. https://www.voanews.com/a/south-africa-readies-hospitals-as-omicron-variant-drives-new-covid-19-wave-/6340912.html https://www.voanews.com/a/south-africa-readies-hospitals-as-... > “Unfortunately, we’re seeing a more than doubling of hospital admissions each day,” said Ian Sanne, an infectious diseases specialist who serves on South Africa’s COVID-19 presidential advisory committee. ------- It would be wonderful news if this variant is milder than Alpha or Delta. But we don't actually have hard evidence of that yet. In a month or two, we'll probably know for sure. EDIT: A lot of the variants follow this pattern. People think its milder, because there are more cases than there are hospitalizations. Then, 2 weeks later, the cases become more severe and everyone goes to the hospitals. So we have to wait. Wait for these new patients, and see if they get better or worse. It takes time before the disease progress into hospitalization stage, and we've only had Omicron in the world for the past 2 weeks or so. Barely enough time for the first few patients to start to enter the hospital.
- impendingchange 5y ago
  > Lets hold off on predictions until we actually get some data. Hopefully humanity will survive that long. It is amazing that we, as a whole, made it this far without data.
- NicoJuicy 5y ago
  Hospital admissions does not mean deaths though and could be related to low vaccination and the quicker spread. As far as I heard, omnicron settles more in the nose and less in the lunges => less deadly. This is not a certainty yet. Source: doctor Ps: yes. I had also a quote from another doctor which made it probable that it was going to be less deadly based on the large amount of mutations and history of viruses. Other doc, different situation, similar "hope". ( Mentioning just in case) Additionally based on numbers from Africa: no more breathing devices, no deaths due to pure COVID, average hospital stay went to 2,5 days from 8,5 days. I'm only cautious because of reinfection odds ( unclear for now)
  - 5y ago
comex 5y ago
> Assuming natural immunity is better than vaccine This is a big assumption. Both types of immunity have their advantages, but a study published by the CDC last month [1] suggests the vaccine provided more reliable immunity (against past strains). Meanwhile, Omicron is currently going around reinfecting tons of people in South Africa. It’s hard to guess how protective a vaccine or infection today might be against a future strain, but even if infection is better, it’s probably not much better. Meanwhile, it’s obviously much more dangerous in the present (even if Omicron might be a little milder than previous strains). [1] https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20211031/covid-vax-5-times-more-protective-than-natural-immunity https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/2021103...

by bko 5y ago

anshumankmr 5y ago

Who can truly know if it will stop evolving?

rolph 5y ago
a possibility is shift of spike target specificity toward other than ACE2. in the case of MERS there is a major difference in outcome of disease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome%E2%80%93related_coronavirus#Tropism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndro...
- anshumankmr 5y ago
  I wasn't able to understand. Will have to look this up. Do you have a simpler source for this?
  - rolph 5y ago
    I hope this helps... as it stands covid 19 uses a protien called ACE2 to enter a cell, just disturbing the ACE2 is enough to cause patho physiology. if the virus changes enough it can fit other protiens. an example of this is comparison of mers with sars. mers does not use ACE2, it uses DPP4. the DPP4 is directly related to apoptosis [procedural death or "scuttling"] disturbance of DPP4 causes very pathological state and often death of the cell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dipeptidyl_peptidase-4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dipeptidyl_peptidase-4 the mortality rate of mers was observed as 35% vs sars cov19 mortality in the range of 1 or 2 deaths per thousand
retrac 5y ago
> stop evolving When it's extinct.
- anshumankmr 5y ago
  I don't think this will ever go away. For example, HIV and MERS is still out there. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2021-DON333 https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2... https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet Sure, one of these is more prevalent than the other but it becoming extinct seems unlikely to me unless something like an asteroid hits earth.

dragontamer 5y ago

Lets hold off on predictions until we actually get some data. South Africa's hospitalization rate is beginning to take off exponentially. https://www.voanews.com/a/south-africa-readies-hospitals-as-omicron-variant-drives-new-covid-19-wave-/6340912.html https://www.voanews.com/a/south-africa-readies-hospitals-as-... > “Unfortunately, we’re seeing a more than doubling of hospital admissions each day,” said Ian Sanne, an infectious diseases specialist who serves on South Africa’s COVID-19 presidential advisory committee. ------- It would be wonderful news if this variant is milder than Alpha or Delta. But we don't actually have hard evidence of that yet. In a month or two, we'll probably know for sure. EDIT: A lot of the variants follow this pattern. People think its milder, because there are more cases than there are hospitalizations. Then, 2 weeks later, the cases become more severe and everyone goes to the hospitals. So we have to wait. Wait for these new patients, and see if they get better or worse. It takes time before the disease progress into hospitalization stage, and we've only had Omicron in the world for the past 2 weeks or so. Barely enough time for the first few patients to start to enter the hospital.

impendingchange 5y ago
> Lets hold off on predictions until we actually get some data. Hopefully humanity will survive that long. It is amazing that we, as a whole, made it this far without data.
NicoJuicy 5y ago
Hospital admissions does not mean deaths though and could be related to low vaccination and the quicker spread. As far as I heard, omnicron settles more in the nose and less in the lunges => less deadly. This is not a certainty yet. Source: doctor Ps: yes. I had also a quote from another doctor which made it probable that it was going to be less deadly based on the large amount of mutations and history of viruses. Other doc, different situation, similar "hope". ( Mentioning just in case) Additionally based on numbers from Africa: no more breathing devices, no deaths due to pure COVID, average hospital stay went to 2,5 days from 8,5 days. I'm only cautious because of reinfection odds ( unclear for now)
- 5y ago

comex 5y ago

> Assuming natural immunity is better than vaccine This is a big assumption. Both types of immunity have their advantages, but a study published by the CDC last month [1] suggests the vaccine provided more reliable immunity (against past strains). Meanwhile, Omicron is currently going around reinfecting tons of people in South Africa. It’s hard to guess how protective a vaccine or infection today might be against a future strain, but even if infection is better, it’s probably not much better. Meanwhile, it’s obviously much more dangerous in the present (even if Omicron might be a little milder than previous strains). [1] https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20211031/covid-vax-5-times-more-protective-than-natural-immunity https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/2021103...