36 ms·

Omicron variant found in nearly one-third of U.S. states

23 points by rolph 5y ago

rolph 5y ago
to put things in a perspective: "At least 16 U.S. states have reported Omicron cases: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Utah, Washington and Wisconsin, according to a Reuters tally. Many of the cases were among fully vaccinated individuals with mild symptoms, although the booster shot status of some patients was not reported. Despite several dozen Omicron cases, the Delta variant still accounts for 99.9% of new COVID cases in the United States, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky told ABC News in an interview." taken from the article
- lucas_membrane 5y ago
  >> the Delta variant still accounts for 99.9% of new COVID cases in the United States ourworldindata.org reports, as-of 6 December 2021, the share of analyzed sequences in the last two weeks that correspond to omicron is 14% in the USA and 10% in Canada. (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) Did Dr Wallensky give any hints about the source of her statistic, if it was based on analyzed sequences, or over what observation period it was derived? Why the big difference in estimates of the present significance of omicron?
  - rsynnott 5y ago
    One possible skewing factor is that suspect omicron cases can often be determined by just looking at the PCR, so these probably get priority for sequencing. If the US generally isn't doing very much random sequencing, this is about what you'd expect.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
roody15 5y ago
Meh… Omicron spreading may actually be a good thing. As of now there are no reported seriously cases of Omicron infections. 0 hospitalizations. If the virus has evolved into a more contagious milder version then this is excellent news.
- ludamad 5y ago
  I read vaguely that South Africa had a surge in hospitalizations (implication being from omicovid), is true?
  - NicoJuicy 5y ago
    Yes. Reason: Low vaccination (25%) and major spread. But: no breathing devices required anymore, no fatalities related to purely omnicron and 8,5 days average hospital stay lowered to 2,5 days. So "seems" much better. Main issue could be reinfection odds and effectiveness of vaccines depending on severity of the virus ( seems ok for now).
    - nate_meurer 5y ago
      Plus, one out of five South Africans has AIDS.
      - chirau 5y ago
        1) What does this have to do with anything? 2) Check your facts, HIV is not AIDS.
        sterlind 5y ago
        Devil's advocate: 1. Significant chunk of the population is immunocompromised, which is epidemiologically relevant in extrapolating disease severity. 2. HIV permanently reduces T-cell levels by 30% or so, even before AIDS kicks in. This happens during seroconversion. Tactlessly delivered by GP though.
        5y ago
bko 5y ago
From everything I've heard, Omicron is much less dangerous than Delta or previous strands. Also, I've read that the Spanish flu ended with a fourth variant that was much milder than previous variants. Assuming natural immunity is better than vaccine, and this variant is very mild, this is probably the one you want to get. What if boosters are being pushed at the worst possible time? With boosters you're less likely to get Covid, and what we've seen is that vaccines have a relatively short period in which they are effective. If you skip this variant, couldn't you get affected by a much less mild variant once the resistance wears off? What am I missing here? That being said, you should probably listen to your local authorities / doctors which are currently advocating everyone get a booster.
- anshumankmr 5y ago
  Who can truly know if it will stop evolving?
  - rolph 5y ago
    a possibility is shift of spike target specificity toward other than ACE2. in the case of MERS there is a major difference in outcome of disease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome%E2%80%93related_coronavirus#Tropism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndro...
    - anshumankmr 5y ago
      I wasn't able to understand. Will have to look this up. Do you have a simpler source for this?
      - rolph 5y ago
        I hope this helps... as it stands covid 19 uses a protien called ACE2 to enter a cell, just disturbing the ACE2 is enough to cause patho physiology. if the virus changes enough it can fit other protiens. an example of this is comparison of mers with sars. mers does not use ACE2, it uses DPP4. the DPP4 is directly related to apoptosis [procedural death or "scuttling"] disturbance of DPP4 causes very pathological state and often death of the cell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dipeptidyl_peptidase-4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dipeptidyl_peptidase-4 the mortality rate of mers was observed as 35% vs sars cov19 mortality in the range of 1 or 2 deaths per thousand
rce 5y ago
At this point we basically have to assume it's everywhere. If it's not already, it will be shortly
- melling 5y ago
  It was identified in 20 countries a week ago, and already likely here at the time. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29396717 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29396717
nikolay 5y ago
I can't believe the optimism! A pathogen that's 5 times more contagious and probably only half less lethal is actually 2.5 times more dangerous as it will kill more people as an absolute value! Not to mention the immune escape, which means that a lot of people who felt self as of last week are not safe anymore!
- sbelskie 5y ago
  Planes will begin crashing five times as often but only half as many people will die in each crash. What’s not to love?
- archsurface 5y ago
  "probably only half less lethal" you're entire scenario is based on this nonsense. "Very mild symptoms". As of the weekend there were no hospitalisations in the UK. This is irrelevant.
  - rsfern 5y ago
    Frankly I think the fact that there are no current known omicron hospitalizations in the uk this week is what is not relevant. It’s just too soon to make any conclusion about the severity of omicron from this data point. Maybe it will bear out, but the oldest known omicron sample is only like a month old now. Hopefully it will turn out to be much less severe, but it just doesn’t seem like it’s been spreading for long enough in the uk (or anywhere really?) to know for sure yet
- suyula 5y ago
  "5 times more contagious" isn't the same as "5 times as many people will be infected". Given your numbers, the new one is way more than 2.5 times more dangerous.
2Gkashmiri 5y ago
i have been told, that the "push for omicron" is a conspiratorial way of china to distance itself from C19. now its omicron from africa instead of covid from china.
EvanKnowles 5y ago
Whew, hopefully Europe has banned all travel to North America.

23 points by rolph 5y ago

to put things in a perspective: "At least 16 U.S. states have reported Omicron cases: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Utah, Washington and Wisconsin, according to a Reuters tally. Many of the cases were among fully vaccinated individuals with mild symptoms, although the booster shot status of some patients was not reported. Despite several dozen Omicron cases, the Delta variant still accounts for 99.9% of new COVID cases in the United States, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky told ABC News in an interview." taken from the article

lucas_membrane 5y ago
>> the Delta variant still accounts for 99.9% of new COVID cases in the United States ourworldindata.org reports, as-of 6 December 2021, the share of analyzed sequences in the last two weeks that correspond to omicron is 14% in the USA and 10% in Canada. (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) Did Dr Wallensky give any hints about the source of her statistic, if it was based on analyzed sequences, or over what observation period it was derived? Why the big difference in estimates of the present significance of omicron?
- rsynnott 5y ago
  One possible skewing factor is that suspect omicron cases can often be determined by just looking at the PCR, so these probably get priority for sequencing. If the US generally isn't doing very much random sequencing, this is about what you'd expect.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

roody15 5y ago

Meh… Omicron spreading may actually be a good thing. As of now there are no reported seriously cases of Omicron infections. 0 hospitalizations. If the virus has evolved into a more contagious milder version then this is excellent news.

ludamad 5y ago
I read vaguely that South Africa had a surge in hospitalizations (implication being from omicovid), is true?
- NicoJuicy 5y ago
  Yes. Reason: Low vaccination (25%) and major spread. But: no breathing devices required anymore, no fatalities related to purely omnicron and 8,5 days average hospital stay lowered to 2,5 days. So "seems" much better. Main issue could be reinfection odds and effectiveness of vaccines depending on severity of the virus ( seems ok for now).
  - nate_meurer 5y ago
    Plus, one out of five South Africans has AIDS.
    - chirau 5y ago
      1) What does this have to do with anything? 2) Check your facts, HIV is not AIDS.
      - sterlind 5y ago
        Devil's advocate: 1. Significant chunk of the population is immunocompromised, which is epidemiologically relevant in extrapolating disease severity. 2. HIV permanently reduces T-cell levels by 30% or so, even before AIDS kicks in. This happens during seroconversion. Tactlessly delivered by GP though.
      - 5y ago

bko 5y ago

From everything I've heard, Omicron is much less dangerous than Delta or previous strands. Also, I've read that the Spanish flu ended with a fourth variant that was much milder than previous variants. Assuming natural immunity is better than vaccine, and this variant is very mild, this is probably the one you want to get. What if boosters are being pushed at the worst possible time? With boosters you're less likely to get Covid, and what we've seen is that vaccines have a relatively short period in which they are effective. If you skip this variant, couldn't you get affected by a much less mild variant once the resistance wears off? What am I missing here? That being said, you should probably listen to your local authorities / doctors which are currently advocating everyone get a booster.

anshumankmr 5y ago
Who can truly know if it will stop evolving?
- rolph 5y ago
  a possibility is shift of spike target specificity toward other than ACE2. in the case of MERS there is a major difference in outcome of disease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome%E2%80%93related_coronavirus#Tropism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndro...
  - anshumankmr 5y ago
    I wasn't able to understand. Will have to look this up. Do you have a simpler source for this?
    - rolph 5y ago
      I hope this helps... as it stands covid 19 uses a protien called ACE2 to enter a cell, just disturbing the ACE2 is enough to cause patho physiology. if the virus changes enough it can fit other protiens. an example of this is comparison of mers with sars. mers does not use ACE2, it uses DPP4. the DPP4 is directly related to apoptosis [procedural death or "scuttling"] disturbance of DPP4 causes very pathological state and often death of the cell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dipeptidyl_peptidase-4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dipeptidyl_peptidase-4 the mortality rate of mers was observed as 35% vs sars cov19 mortality in the range of 1 or 2 deaths per thousand

rce 5y ago

At this point we basically have to assume it's everywhere. If it's not already, it will be shortly

melling 5y ago
It was identified in 20 countries a week ago, and already likely here at the time. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29396717 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29396717

nikolay 5y ago

I can't believe the optimism! A pathogen that's 5 times more contagious and probably only half less lethal is actually 2.5 times more dangerous as it will kill more people as an absolute value! Not to mention the immune escape, which means that a lot of people who felt self as of last week are not safe anymore!

sbelskie 5y ago
Planes will begin crashing five times as often but only half as many people will die in each crash. What’s not to love?
archsurface 5y ago
"probably only half less lethal" you're entire scenario is based on this nonsense. "Very mild symptoms". As of the weekend there were no hospitalisations in the UK. This is irrelevant.
- rsfern 5y ago
  Frankly I think the fact that there are no current known omicron hospitalizations in the uk this week is what is not relevant. It’s just too soon to make any conclusion about the severity of omicron from this data point. Maybe it will bear out, but the oldest known omicron sample is only like a month old now. Hopefully it will turn out to be much less severe, but it just doesn’t seem like it’s been spreading for long enough in the uk (or anywhere really?) to know for sure yet
suyula 5y ago
"5 times more contagious" isn't the same as "5 times as many people will be infected". Given your numbers, the new one is way more than 2.5 times more dangerous.

2Gkashmiri 5y ago

i have been told, that the "push for omicron" is a conspiratorial way of china to distance itself from C19. now its omicron from africa instead of covid from china.

EvanKnowles 5y ago

Whew, hopefully Europe has banned all travel to North America.