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> Weird how the stats were just of the US. Elsewhere in the world there are children being born at a high rate. In pockets, yes, mostly in the world's poorest

by retrac 5y ago

> Weird how the stats were just of the US. Elsewhere in the world there are children being born at a high rate. In pockets, yes, mostly in the world's poorest nations. But the global birthrate as a whole has been falling since the 1970s: https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/108A/production/_104243240_global_fertility_rates_gra640-nc.png https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/108A/production/... It is now only a bit above replacement. Even a conservative projection of the trend has us at a shrinking global population in a few decades. Also, if Nigeria's population quadruples and China's goes down by nearly half, on paper it looks approximately break-even. But that would hide a great deal going on there, in terms of economic, social and political consequences, for both countries, and the world.

s1artibartfast 5y ago
I agree with everything you said but this: >Even a conservative projection of the trend has us at a shrinking global population in a few decades. I have not seen this in any of the projections. We are past peak fertility, and past peak births, but total population has a long lag time, as lifespans are long and increasing. The projections I have seen show total population peaking ~2100.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  Peaking in 2100 at 11 billion people. If we can arrive fairly soon at a total fertility rate of 1 (half of replacement rate), that’ll eventually put the population curve on a trajectory towards 5 billion people around 2150 (which sounds very reasonable from a carrying capacity perspective). Elon talks a big game because he’s wealthy enough to have extensive outsourced childcare for his six kids.
  - s1artibartfast 5y ago
    To be honest, I'm not sure why you addressed this comment to me opposed to any of the the other comments. People can make different arguments about what the carrying capacity or optimal population would be, but the point stands that how we get there is very critical to the state of the world when we reach any target. Mismanaged depopulation can have devastating impact on the quality of life and even the environment. The problems caused by population changes are very different across countries. Some countries have or will have major issues caused by population decline. Others will be unimaginable humanitarian disasters due to population growth. >Elon talks a big game because he’s wealthy enough to have extensive outsourced childcare for his six kids. This highlights the situational differences in population and economic needs across the globe. Population growth can be a problem in one place and population decline can be a problem in another. Elon is living in a country with a fertility rate below replacement that requires immigration to maintain itself. It has a strong economy, high GDP, and high material well-being for it's citizens. Contrast this to someone living in Niger, where the fertility rate is >6, half the population lives on <$1/day, and there are ~200 doctors in the entire country of 10+ million.

by retrac 5y ago

s1artibartfast 5y ago

I agree with everything you said but this: >Even a conservative projection of the trend has us at a shrinking global population in a few decades. I have not seen this in any of the projections. We are past peak fertility, and past peak births, but total population has a long lag time, as lifespans are long and increasing. The projections I have seen show total population peaking ~2100.

toomuchtodo 5y ago
Peaking in 2100 at 11 billion people. If we can arrive fairly soon at a total fertility rate of 1 (half of replacement rate), that’ll eventually put the population curve on a trajectory towards 5 billion people around 2150 (which sounds very reasonable from a carrying capacity perspective). Elon talks a big game because he’s wealthy enough to have extensive outsourced childcare for his six kids.
- s1artibartfast 5y ago
  To be honest, I'm not sure why you addressed this comment to me opposed to any of the the other comments. People can make different arguments about what the carrying capacity or optimal population would be, but the point stands that how we get there is very critical to the state of the world when we reach any target. Mismanaged depopulation can have devastating impact on the quality of life and even the environment. The problems caused by population changes are very different across countries. Some countries have or will have major issues caused by population decline. Others will be unimaginable humanitarian disasters due to population growth. >Elon talks a big game because he’s wealthy enough to have extensive outsourced childcare for his six kids. This highlights the situational differences in population and economic needs across the globe. Population growth can be a problem in one place and population decline can be a problem in another. Elon is living in a country with a fertility rate below replacement that requires immigration to maintain itself. It has a strong economy, high GDP, and high material well-being for it's citizens. Contrast this to someone living in Niger, where the fertility rate is >6, half the population lives on <$1/day, and there are ~200 doctors in the entire country of 10+ million.