4 ms·

Weird how the stats were just of the US. Elsewhere in the world there are children being born at a high rate. Wonder if Elon would choose to address the main i

by v0iD7 5y ago

Weird how the stats were just of the US. Elsewhere in the world there are children being born at a high rate. Wonder if Elon would choose to address the main issue of Fertility in the Western World. Since more and more Men and Women are having difficulties conceiving. With the increasing costs of Fertility and IVF treatments citizens are finding it hard to come up with money to have children. Meanwhile the US and Canadian governments are not dealing with this problem. Perhaps leadership should start to address the problems that their citizens cannot have children and do something financially to assist families in need. Instead it seems that Canada is continuing to just fill the population with refugees and immigration.

rogerkirkness 5y ago
This is the natural consequence of choosing to have kids late to focus on status from work.
- version_five 5y ago
  Agreed. The parent talks about IVF and fertility treatment, which I support. But I think it would be interesting to explore social programs that provide an easier path to having kids earlier, rather than just deal with the fallout of delaying it. I have no idea what this would look like, but it's a good conversation to have. How - in a way that doesn't provide the wrong incentives or penalize people who make different choices, can we remove the downside of having kids in say late twenties?
- quantified 5y ago
  Or a life. Lots of people have a life that’s not work.
retrac 5y ago
> Weird how the stats were just of the US. Elsewhere in the world there are children being born at a high rate. In pockets, yes, mostly in the world's poorest nations. But the global birthrate as a whole has been falling since the 1970s: https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/108A/production/_104243240_global_fertility_rates_gra640-nc.png https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/108A/production/... It is now only a bit above replacement. Even a conservative projection of the trend has us at a shrinking global population in a few decades. Also, if Nigeria's population quadruples and China's goes down by nearly half, on paper it looks approximately break-even. But that would hide a great deal going on there, in terms of economic, social and political consequences, for both countries, and the world.
- s1artibartfast 5y ago
  I agree with everything you said but this: >Even a conservative projection of the trend has us at a shrinking global population in a few decades. I have not seen this in any of the projections. We are past peak fertility, and past peak births, but total population has a long lag time, as lifespans are long and increasing. The projections I have seen show total population peaking ~2100.
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    Peaking in 2100 at 11 billion people. If we can arrive fairly soon at a total fertility rate of 1 (half of replacement rate), that’ll eventually put the population curve on a trajectory towards 5 billion people around 2150 (which sounds very reasonable from a carrying capacity perspective). Elon talks a big game because he’s wealthy enough to have extensive outsourced childcare for his six kids.
    - s1artibartfast 5y ago
      To be honest, I'm not sure why you addressed this comment to me opposed to any of the the other comments. People can make different arguments about what the carrying capacity or optimal population would be, but the point stands that how we get there is very critical to the state of the world when we reach any target. Mismanaged depopulation can have devastating impact on the quality of life and even the environment. The problems caused by population changes are very different across countries. Some countries have or will have major issues caused by population decline. Others will be unimaginable humanitarian disasters due to population growth. >Elon talks a big game because he’s wealthy enough to have extensive outsourced childcare for his six kids. This highlights the situational differences in population and economic needs across the globe. Population growth can be a problem in one place and population decline can be a problem in another. Elon is living in a country with a fertility rate below replacement that requires immigration to maintain itself. It has a strong economy, high GDP, and high material well-being for it's citizens. Contrast this to someone living in Niger, where the fertility rate is >6, half the population lives on <$1/day, and there are ~200 doctors in the entire country of 10+ million.
s1artibartfast 5y ago
>Perhaps leadership should start to address the problems that their citizens cannot have children and do something financially to assist families in need. The problem primarily isn't one of money or financial need. The relationship is much more complicated. Money might make some small bump, but it doesn't really compare to the bigger factors.

by v0iD7 5y ago

rogerkirkness 5y ago

This is the natural consequence of choosing to have kids late to focus on status from work.

version_five 5y ago
Agreed. The parent talks about IVF and fertility treatment, which I support. But I think it would be interesting to explore social programs that provide an easier path to having kids earlier, rather than just deal with the fallout of delaying it. I have no idea what this would look like, but it's a good conversation to have. How - in a way that doesn't provide the wrong incentives or penalize people who make different choices, can we remove the downside of having kids in say late twenties?
quantified 5y ago
Or a life. Lots of people have a life that’s not work.

retrac 5y ago

> Weird how the stats were just of the US. Elsewhere in the world there are children being born at a high rate. In pockets, yes, mostly in the world's poorest nations. But the global birthrate as a whole has been falling since the 1970s: https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/108A/production/_104243240_global_fertility_rates_gra640-nc.png https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/108A/production/... It is now only a bit above replacement. Even a conservative projection of the trend has us at a shrinking global population in a few decades. Also, if Nigeria's population quadruples and China's goes down by nearly half, on paper it looks approximately break-even. But that would hide a great deal going on there, in terms of economic, social and political consequences, for both countries, and the world.

s1artibartfast 5y ago
I agree with everything you said but this: >Even a conservative projection of the trend has us at a shrinking global population in a few decades. I have not seen this in any of the projections. We are past peak fertility, and past peak births, but total population has a long lag time, as lifespans are long and increasing. The projections I have seen show total population peaking ~2100.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  Peaking in 2100 at 11 billion people. If we can arrive fairly soon at a total fertility rate of 1 (half of replacement rate), that’ll eventually put the population curve on a trajectory towards 5 billion people around 2150 (which sounds very reasonable from a carrying capacity perspective). Elon talks a big game because he’s wealthy enough to have extensive outsourced childcare for his six kids.
  - s1artibartfast 5y ago
    To be honest, I'm not sure why you addressed this comment to me opposed to any of the the other comments. People can make different arguments about what the carrying capacity or optimal population would be, but the point stands that how we get there is very critical to the state of the world when we reach any target. Mismanaged depopulation can have devastating impact on the quality of life and even the environment. The problems caused by population changes are very different across countries. Some countries have or will have major issues caused by population decline. Others will be unimaginable humanitarian disasters due to population growth. >Elon talks a big game because he’s wealthy enough to have extensive outsourced childcare for his six kids. This highlights the situational differences in population and economic needs across the globe. Population growth can be a problem in one place and population decline can be a problem in another. Elon is living in a country with a fertility rate below replacement that requires immigration to maintain itself. It has a strong economy, high GDP, and high material well-being for it's citizens. Contrast this to someone living in Niger, where the fertility rate is >6, half the population lives on <$1/day, and there are ~200 doctors in the entire country of 10+ million.

s1artibartfast 5y ago

>Perhaps leadership should start to address the problems that their citizens cannot have children and do something financially to assist families in need. The problem primarily isn't one of money or financial need. The relationship is much more complicated. Money might make some small bump, but it doesn't really compare to the bigger factors.