5 ms·

> Hoping that the enemy runs out of $30 bullets before you run out of $1000+ drones is... a bad bet I think If the prize is a multi-billion dollar aircraft car

> Hoping that the enemy runs out of $30 bullets before you run out of $1000+ drones is... a bad bet I think If the prize is a multi-billion dollar aircraft carrier it might not be. More to the point, you're talking about cannons that fire at 4500 rounds per minute, and while this is outside my area of expertise, the fire control computer's strategy is absolutely not going to be to fire a single round and wait to see whether the target disappears. It's going to fire some minimum number of rounds, and it only takes a fraction of a second to burn through $1000 of 20mm ammo. If it is a feasible option, it's pretty easy to imagine a conflict where keeping the cannons occupied with garbage $1000 decoy targets for a while is a cost-effective strategy. (it seems like the sort of thing you'd do during an attack alongside real anti-ship missiles, though, to improve the effectiveness of those weapons)

dragontamer 5y ago
The main issue is that you can afford 10,000 cruise missiles against a $10 Billion carrier and still come out ahead. The minute we're talking 10,000 cruise missiles vs 1-million drones, the cruise missiles suddenly look easier because its just fewer things to deal with. EDIT: In particular, we know how to launch hundreds of cruise missiles simultaneously. How do you plan to launch hundreds, or thousands, of drones simultaneously? What kind of launch platform is that? Just thinking about the design of the truck that carries 1,000 drones is already a big headache. We have trucks that can carry 12 cruise missiles, and launch all 12 of them near simultaneously. A bunch of those trucks lined up on a highway aiming to the ocean is pretty easy to think about. ----- We also have boats that can carry 100s of missiles, and launch dozens of them simultaneously. Those are called Missile Destroyers or Missile Cruisers.
- littlestymaar 5y ago
  > We have trucks that can carry 12 cruise missiles, and launch all 12 of them near simultaneously. A bunch of those trucks lined up on a highway aiming to the ocean is pretty easy to think about. If there's no “counter battery” to worry about, maybe. Lining up your trucks on a highway is a great way to get them all destroyed by a single air attack… And there's no way it's gonna take a million drone to sink a ship. Modern ship defence systems haven't been designed against a huge number of small targets. A hundred armed drones might even be enough to overflow the tracking system. For reference, the Israelian Iron Dome[1] can only track 200 targets[2] and we're talking about a system that has been specifically designed against swarm attacks. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome [2] “per minute” whatever that means https://archive.wikiwix.com/cache/index2.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.iai.co.il%2Fsip_storage%2FFILES%2F9%2F38029.pdf https://archive.wikiwix.com/cache/index2.php?url=http%3A%2F%...
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    > If there's no “counter battery” to worry about, maybe. Lining up your trucks on a highway is a great way to get them all destroyed by a single air attack… How do you plan to launch your drones? A bunch of trucks on a highway is a really good strategy. Especially since these missile-trucks have 2000+km range. https://blog.usni.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/12722150-0-image-a-24_1556219295439.jpg https://blog.usni.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/12722150-0-... These are the weapons the US Military is worried about. Hypersonic (3000mph), possibly homing (if China is to be believed). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-21 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-21 ------- In any case, a drone-launch platform will need a lot of launchers: little programmers that tell the drone its final orders before they fly off. It doesn't matter if its a TOW-like (follow the radio signal based off of this laser-pointer), or homing, or whatever capability you have. Once you have a bunch of launchers + drones, you then need a way to transport them around, so that you can optimally launch them when needed. TL;DR: You need MLRS, except for drone launching. That's the only feasible way you're going to effectively manage so many drones. But even then, that just begs the question: why aren't you just using MLRS to begin with, with standard cruise missiles invented like 40 years ago?
    - littlestymaar 5y ago
      Cruse missiles are really good, no question about that. But they are expensive, and hard to deploy (you've avoided the counter-battery issue in your response, and it's a bit unfortunate as the biggest issue with missiles is “how do you protect the missile launcher from being taken down before they fire”). China can probably do it, Russia also, but anyone else would probably be out of luck. (well, there's submarines also but that's another topic). > How do you plan to launch your drones? Ideally, from scattered units operating with light vehicles (say, a pick-up with a trailer). The key part is being able to launch your attack without being destroyed first. And as I said earlier, I think you're overestimating the number of needed drones by several orders of magnitude.
      - dragontamer 5y ago
        > you've avoided the counter-battery issue in your response, and it's a bit unfortunate as the biggest issue with missiles is “how do you protect the missile launcher from being taken down before they fire” No, I haven't. My point is whatever launcher mechanism you have for your hypothetical drones has the exact same issue. > Ideally, from scattered units operating with light vehicles (say, a pick-up with a trailer). Yes. These are called MLRS when they're rockets or cruise missiles. If you think a cruise missile platform can be "counter-battery fired", then these light pickup trucks you're talking about have the same exact problem.

dragontamer 5y ago

The main issue is that you can afford 10,000 cruise missiles against a $10 Billion carrier and still come out ahead. The minute we're talking 10,000 cruise missiles vs 1-million drones, the cruise missiles suddenly look easier because its just fewer things to deal with. EDIT: In particular, we know how to launch hundreds of cruise missiles simultaneously. How do you plan to launch hundreds, or thousands, of drones simultaneously? What kind of launch platform is that? Just thinking about the design of the truck that carries 1,000 drones is already a big headache. We have trucks that can carry 12 cruise missiles, and launch all 12 of them near simultaneously. A bunch of those trucks lined up on a highway aiming to the ocean is pretty easy to think about. ----- We also have boats that can carry 100s of missiles, and launch dozens of them simultaneously. Those are called Missile Destroyers or Missile Cruisers.

littlestymaar 5y ago
> We have trucks that can carry 12 cruise missiles, and launch all 12 of them near simultaneously. A bunch of those trucks lined up on a highway aiming to the ocean is pretty easy to think about. If there's no “counter battery” to worry about, maybe. Lining up your trucks on a highway is a great way to get them all destroyed by a single air attack… And there's no way it's gonna take a million drone to sink a ship. Modern ship defence systems haven't been designed against a huge number of small targets. A hundred armed drones might even be enough to overflow the tracking system. For reference, the Israelian Iron Dome[1] can only track 200 targets[2] and we're talking about a system that has been specifically designed against swarm attacks. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome [2] “per minute” whatever that means https://archive.wikiwix.com/cache/index2.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.iai.co.il%2Fsip_storage%2FFILES%2F9%2F38029.pdf https://archive.wikiwix.com/cache/index2.php?url=http%3A%2F%...
- dragontamer 5y ago
  > If there's no “counter battery” to worry about, maybe. Lining up your trucks on a highway is a great way to get them all destroyed by a single air attack… How do you plan to launch your drones? A bunch of trucks on a highway is a really good strategy. Especially since these missile-trucks have 2000+km range. https://blog.usni.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/12722150-0-image-a-24_1556219295439.jpg https://blog.usni.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/12722150-0-... These are the weapons the US Military is worried about. Hypersonic (3000mph), possibly homing (if China is to be believed). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-21 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-21 ------- In any case, a drone-launch platform will need a lot of launchers: little programmers that tell the drone its final orders before they fly off. It doesn't matter if its a TOW-like (follow the radio signal based off of this laser-pointer), or homing, or whatever capability you have. Once you have a bunch of launchers + drones, you then need a way to transport them around, so that you can optimally launch them when needed. TL;DR: You need MLRS, except for drone launching. That's the only feasible way you're going to effectively manage so many drones. But even then, that just begs the question: why aren't you just using MLRS to begin with, with standard cruise missiles invented like 40 years ago?
  - littlestymaar 5y ago
    Cruse missiles are really good, no question about that. But they are expensive, and hard to deploy (you've avoided the counter-battery issue in your response, and it's a bit unfortunate as the biggest issue with missiles is “how do you protect the missile launcher from being taken down before they fire”). China can probably do it, Russia also, but anyone else would probably be out of luck. (well, there's submarines also but that's another topic). > How do you plan to launch your drones? Ideally, from scattered units operating with light vehicles (say, a pick-up with a trailer). The key part is being able to launch your attack without being destroyed first. And as I said earlier, I think you're overestimating the number of needed drones by several orders of magnitude.
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      > you've avoided the counter-battery issue in your response, and it's a bit unfortunate as the biggest issue with missiles is “how do you protect the missile launcher from being taken down before they fire” No, I haven't. My point is whatever launcher mechanism you have for your hypothetical drones has the exact same issue. > Ideally, from scattered units operating with light vehicles (say, a pick-up with a trailer). Yes. These are called MLRS when they're rockets or cruise missiles. If you think a cruise missile platform can be "counter-battery fired", then these light pickup trucks you're talking about have the same exact problem.