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Let's examine these claims: > The Biden admin is growing cold to both China and Russia. Washington has been cold to both nations for the better part of a deca
by pphysch 5y ago
Let's examine these claims:
> The Biden admin is growing cold to both China and Russia.
Washington has been cold to both nations for the better part of a decade/century depending on your perspective.
> They just announced they won't support the 2022 Olympics.
False. Virtually all American athletes are attending. Whether the Biden admin is diplomatically boycotting or wasn't even invited is a matter of perspective.
> Cyber warfare and espionage are reaching new peaks.
> Russia just blew up a satellite, which caused NASA astronauts to take shelter. Target practice for fog of war.
> China demonstrated their orbital hypersonics and glide platform, which is hard to track and defend against. Nuclear MAD that defeats US countermeasures.
> Russia is amassing forces to take over Ukraine and Georgia.
> China is increasing incursions over Taiwanese airspace.
When a historically passive person starts acting assertively, an unscrupulous observer might judge it as aggression. Russia and China are demonstrating that Washington is no longer the undisputed military superpower it once was, that it can't bully anyone it wants. This has critical geopolitical implications but does not necessarily point to an inevitable war.
The fact is that USA has hundreds of overseas military bases while Russia and China combined have less than 10. Many of those American bases are on the doorstep of both competitors. Until China is parking carriers in the Gulf of Mexico, it hasn't even begun to reciprocate American military assertiveness/aggression.
> China is delisting from US exchanges.
...and relisting on e.g. HKEX which is historically accessible to international investors from America and elsewhere. More likely, Chinese companies are hedging against the collapse of Wall St. (if the Fed raises rates) or the USD (if they don't).
> The US is in the awkward period between upgrading existing systems and designing next generation weapons.
Like the F35? Pretty sure that failure has nothing to do with "bad timing" and everything to do with the corrupt state of Washington and the Pentagon.
> We might really go to war in 2022 if China and Russia think they can take Ukraine and Taiwan. A hot war.
Why, though? Whose interests does it really serve?
- handrous 5y ago> > > The US is in the awkward period between upgrading existing systems and designing next generation weapons. > Like the F35? Pretty sure that failure has nothing to do with "bad timing" and everything to do with the corrupt state of Washington and the Pentagon. IIRC this concern is mainly about attack sub capabilities, and the US navy will in fact enter a period of exceptionally poor preparedness for operating in the waters around Taiwan in the event that war breaks out, for a few years between about 2025 and 2030. This is due to procurement decisions made years and years ago, since there's huge lead-time on building new ships. Whether this actually means anything—I don't know.
- AussieWog93 5y ago>> We might really go to war in 2022 if China and Russia think they can take Ukraine and Taiwan. A hot war. >Why, though? Whose interests does it really serve? Not sure about Ukraine, but if Xi's perceived legitimacy falls further then he could invade Taiwan (and risk huge domestic backlash) as a gambit to hold onto power. Don't forget that the CCP's raison d'etre is not to responsibly govern China but simply to accrue power. If that means sending 3 million Chinese youth into the Taiwan meat grinder, then that's a price he's willing to pay.
- pphysch 5y agoBlimey mate, you've been watching a bit too much 60 Minutes Australia.
- AussieWog93 5y agoQuite the opposite, actually - KRudd's speeches and essays. (I think a lot of people that don't keep up with Chinese news and politics are quite dismissive of both the public and the China watchers' fear of Xi, and I think a big part of this dismissal comes from trash-tier organisations like Sky News constantly publishing dumb "China Bad" pieces. When you listen to the people on the ground, though, and see all kinds of major precedents being broken daily, it's clear that something profoundly unsettling is going on under Xi's leadership.)
- pphysch 5y ago> it's clear that something profoundly unsettling is going on under Xi's leadership Yeah, for the corrupt politicians in Washington and Canberra.
- AussieWog93 5y agoThat's the funny bit. Supporting the rise of China has been in the direct financial interest of corrupt politicians and businessmen all over the world for the past 30 years, yet now even they are spooked. Shit's changed, man.