What's striking here is the Japanese trust into their own intel. If someone came up to me with a plan for a "surprise" attack that the defender had wargamed not

What's striking here is the Japanese trust into their own intel. If someone came up to me with a plan for a "surprise" attack that the defender had wargamed not once but twice and wouldn't know about any countermeasures I would be highly suspicious of a trap. For instance, how did Japan not consider that the US Navy deployed top secret radar after the first wargame that then perfectly warned about the second attack? You can easily stack multiple wargames in one. Another option could have been a submarine screen that "intercepted" the attacking force.