Don't know why you got downmodded... Economists are generally lagging indicators when it comes to the market. And they don't have a measuring stick, they have

Don't know why you got downmodded... Economists are generally lagging indicators when it comes to the market. And they don't have a measuring stick, they have a basket full of them. From BusinessWeek: "Many people think the definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of decline in the gross domestic product. But that's a misperception. [the NBER] will look beyond such simple metrics, weighing monthly GDP estimates, employment data, income, industrial production, and other factors. To call a recession, they'll look for clear signs of "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months." Any call, if it comes, is going to take a while. The NBER usually takes 6 to 18 months to decide when a recession starts or ends. Hall's committee didn't announce the end of the 2001 recession until a full 20 months after the fact... Also, an increase in GDP does not necessarily mean "growth." The way that they have measured this has changed over the past decade, and I think their analysis techniques are biased.