If you are, as you say, "in the market for a guess" that would imply that you are actively looking at different guesses and comparing the credentials of the gue

If you are, as you say, "in the market for a guess" that would imply that you are actively looking at different guesses and comparing the credentials of the guessers. Then you would _probably_ be right to choose eg. the guess from the virologist over the proctologist or the mechanic when you need a guess on how the Covid situation will unfold. But the issue might be that an "educated guess" in itself could be worse because you wouldn't base any major decisions on a mechanic that present an "uneducated guess" that "the virus will die down in a month" but if you have a crackpot chiropractor presenting themselves as a "certified doctor with an expertise in everything concerning the body" that says the same thing, you might be worse off in saying that this "educated guess" is worth basing your travel plans on.