I don't know that this really would take into account waning properly. If immunity for the most part lasts 6 mths lets say, then you'd expect the first wave pe

I don't know that this really would take into account waning properly. If immunity for the most part lasts 6 mths lets say, then you'd expect the first wave people to be fine up to 3rd wave but not 4th, second wave people would be fine up to 4th etc but not 5th. So you'd expect to see a bump like this 2x at the point where waning occurs during a peak in cases. It will wobble up and down depending on how in phase are the waning and case waves. But it doesn't necessarily pin this on virus properties only.