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That's how you gift PRC a firm client state with naval base and infra that circumvents Malacca and mitigates Andaman & Nicobar. US can only maximize logistics w

That's how you gift PRC a firm client state with naval base and infra that circumvents Malacca and mitigates Andaman & Nicobar. US can only maximize logistics with forward staging, which is still tiny compared to Myanmar / PRC land routes, who can support Tatmadaw indefinitely, with little green men if need be. Regardless, unlikely anyone in the region will allow it, least of all India, whose already dealing with border instability and weakening security environment due to western bloc sanctioning Tatmadaw, ruining India's Act East strategy. PRC supported/loyal Tatmadaw is nightmare scenario for India. Also SKorea, Japan, Singapore - basically anyone that's remotely US friendly wants to protect their Myanmar investments, as far as I know, none of them are even on the sanction train. At most you'll have US sorting out of CSGs, close to SLOC choke points, scaring everyone in ASEAN and making mockery of US's PRC containment propaganda, while PRC takes opportunity to gather intelligence and maybe give Myanmar military new PRC military platforms to test in real world scenarios. Which could actually go either way.

baybal2 5y ago
> Also SKorea, Japan, Singapore - basically anyone that's remotely US friendly If that treacherous trio wasn't rooting for China, and not spending billions on their factories in China, the talk would be entirely different. It's in US best interest to keep its allies in line. The worst thing they can do is really to die on US, by failing to resist China. And I think, this is even more important now that getting Modi/India on board. I bet, in a decade or so, China will be back into a state of North Korea, except with skyscrapers, if the US will do so. US can't keep extending the security guarantee to Korea, Japan, and Taiwan with them putting money into China. It's a backstabbing.
- dirtyid 5y ago
  >keep its allies in line With that kind of characterization then label US "allies" for what they are, satraps. Which while the trio are somewhere on the continuum, they still have autonomy to realize US security commitment is only worthwhile if it ensures holistic security. Plunging entire region into war, potentially another forever one isn't in their security interest. At the end of the day security guarantee is a different arrangement than committed alliance, especially to contain PRC in their own backyard at all costs. Security partners are not allies who are obligated to come to US defense or bleed for US interests after all. That's not the kind of commitment US can twist arm for buy in. India/Modi doesn't seem very on board either. Ultimately, Jaishankar sees US/west as hegemon of yesterday and PRC/India collaboration as essential to Asian Century. Previously sanctioned Modi knows how fickle west can be, hasn't bought in outside of hedging. Certainly not enough to provide basing for US considering their history. >I bet, in a decade or so, China will be back into a state of North Korea, except with skyscrapers if the US will do so. US probably could do so, but the problem even NK emerging from rubble retained enough expertise to now have a nuclear program that credibly threatens US. But they're simply too small bargain for anything better. PRC on the other hand is large and capable enough to negotiate/fight for better, and could feasibly turn US (and satraps) into North Korea as well. IMO, short of utter calamity, PRC is simply too big to acquiesce to US foreign policy indefinitely and is in a position to at least make sure US suffers decline as much if not more.

baybal2 5y ago

> Also SKorea, Japan, Singapore - basically anyone that's remotely US friendly If that treacherous trio wasn't rooting for China, and not spending billions on their factories in China, the talk would be entirely different. It's in US best interest to keep its allies in line. The worst thing they can do is really to die on US, by failing to resist China. And I think, this is even more important now that getting Modi/India on board. I bet, in a decade or so, China will be back into a state of North Korea, except with skyscrapers, if the US will do so. US can't keep extending the security guarantee to Korea, Japan, and Taiwan with them putting money into China. It's a backstabbing.

dirtyid 5y ago
>keep its allies in line With that kind of characterization then label US "allies" for what they are, satraps. Which while the trio are somewhere on the continuum, they still have autonomy to realize US security commitment is only worthwhile if it ensures holistic security. Plunging entire region into war, potentially another forever one isn't in their security interest. At the end of the day security guarantee is a different arrangement than committed alliance, especially to contain PRC in their own backyard at all costs. Security partners are not allies who are obligated to come to US defense or bleed for US interests after all. That's not the kind of commitment US can twist arm for buy in. India/Modi doesn't seem very on board either. Ultimately, Jaishankar sees US/west as hegemon of yesterday and PRC/India collaboration as essential to Asian Century. Previously sanctioned Modi knows how fickle west can be, hasn't bought in outside of hedging. Certainly not enough to provide basing for US considering their history. >I bet, in a decade or so, China will be back into a state of North Korea, except with skyscrapers if the US will do so. US probably could do so, but the problem even NK emerging from rubble retained enough expertise to now have a nuclear program that credibly threatens US. But they're simply too small bargain for anything better. PRC on the other hand is large and capable enough to negotiate/fight for better, and could feasibly turn US (and satraps) into North Korea as well. IMO, short of utter calamity, PRC is simply too big to acquiesce to US foreign policy indefinitely and is in a position to at least make sure US suffers decline as much if not more.