5 ms·

As a lifelong NYC resident: the NYPost is a completely unreliable narrator when it comes to just about any city statistics. Investment bank policies, written b

As a lifelong NYC resident: the NYPost is a completely unreliable narrator when it comes to just about any city statistics. Investment bank policies, written by the paranoid generationally wealthy from their out-of-city homes, are similarly unreliable. Some forms of crime are up year over year- in part because NYC was deserted last year- but nearly all forms of crime on 5, 10, 20 and 30 year timeframes are way, way down. My teenage girl children are free to roam around the city at nearly all hours in ways that would have been unthinkable when I was their age. It is incredible how safe NYC is. There IS, however, a very sad upswing of mentally ill on the streets and subways. They may frighten tourists, but are harmless, worthy of help and pity. It is shameful that none of the pervasive enormous construction projects are going to facilitate homing them, even considering the trickle down. Cheers.

chitowneats 5y ago
Crime is down in major metro areas all over the world since the start of the pandemic. The tangible erosion of public safety is unique to the U.S. I've lived in both NYC and Chicago in the past decade. The rapid changes in both cities are quite alarming and no amount of hand waving about 5-30 year time frames is going to make people feel better about the sharp reversal that has occurred in the past 18 months.
- jonahbenton 5y ago
  Simply false. For all intents and purposes, stranger to stranger crime was virtually zero before the pandemic and is virtually zero now.
  - chitowneats 5y ago
    Usually I would ask for a source for such an outlandish claim. This has not been my personal experience in NYC. Your use of "for all intents and purposes" and "virtually" are doing quite a bit of heavy lifting.
    - regnull 5y ago
      Haha, yeah. "For all intents and purposes", "virtually", and don't forget the weird "stranger on stranger". Perhaps if the perpetrator knows you, it makes it better?
      - Schiendelman 5y ago
        Stranger on stranger is a normal way to segment crime. It controls out things that aren’t putting you at risk.
  - regnull 5y ago
    Should be easy to find out using a google search, no? Here you go: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statist... Total crimes, 2020: 1817, 2021: 2268 Quite a bit of an increase. 2021 is not over yet.
    - geoffpado 5y ago
      I'm not really trying to counter-argue your point, just clarify, but… isn't that the one-week stats? The YoY stats are 2020: 87,608 vs 2021: 90,362.
      - ben_jones 5y ago
        And that's WITH lockdowns and a way fewer people on the streets in 2020. Of course 2021 would be higher with vaccinations.
      - jjeaff 5y ago
        So on track for maybe a 4% increase. Doesn't quite look like crisis to me. Of course, breakdowns of the type of crime might be helpful. It wouldn't take much of a single type of crime (like assault related to mask/anti-mask or something of that nature to cause a jump).
  - dilyevsky 5y ago
    It sure will be zero when cops never show up to take a report (or just stop being called in bc of that the above)
sigmaprimus 5y ago
I'm curious, as a lifelong resident of NYC would You say there are certain sections of the city that are more or less dangerous than others? I have not lived in NYC but have lived in other metropolitan cities and found that all of them had dangerous areas. As far as your comment on generational wealthy living out of city, I find this very interesting as it seems to indicate an anti-gentrification sort of thing that might be occurring, this is something that I have not seen or heard of in any cities other than those on the decline. Anyways, I will take your word on the safeness of the city and at some point in my already half over life I hope I get the opportunity to visit.
- SpelingBeeChamp 5y ago
  I grew up in the Bronx. If anyone tells you that you can safely go anywhere you want in NYC at any time of day, tell them to go first and report back. NYC is a fantastic place. It is very safe anywhere you would possibly want to go, unless you're going on a crime tour. That doesn't mean it's safe everywhere. In other words, yes, there are certain sections of the city that are more or less dangerous than others.
  - samspenc 5y ago
    Yeah as someone who lived in NYC and nearby Jersey City for over a decade before moving out, I was very surprised by OP's comment: > are free to roam around the city at nearly all hours in ways that would have been unthinkable when I was their age. It is incredible how safe NYC is. Yes, the lower / Southern part of Manhattan, below 96th St is fairly safe at all times of the day or even night. But, and this is a big but, stray anywhere out of those "safe" Manhattan neighborhoods and you'll be terrified at how unsafe it is even at dawn or dusk. I've had friends who were mugged early mornings or evenings in areas like Harlem, East Harlem and the Bronx, even when there was a bit of light out. You hear police sirens round the clock in these areas. Anecdotally, when I last visited Manhattan last year, I did notice the following and can confirm that OP is right about this, though I suspect this may improve as life in Manhattan goes back to normal in the months and years to come (maybe?): > There IS, however, a very sad upswing of mentally ill on the streets and subways. They may frighten tourists ...
ALittleLight 5y ago
The mentally ill and homeless are vastly more likely to be dangerous, violent, or criminals. It's simply naivete or wishful thinking to imagine otherwise.
- Schiendelman 5y ago
  I think you may want to go try to validate that claim with data! You may find that you were engaged in wishful thinking. ;)
  - ALittleLight 5y ago
    "The overall rate of criminal offenses was 35 times higher in the homeless mentally ill population than in the domiciled mentally ill population. The rate of violent crimes was 40 times higher and the rate of nonviolent crimes 27 times higher in the homeless population. Homeless defendants were significantly more likely to have been charged with victimizing strangers." https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7641002/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7641002/ You could find an unending stream of such results. It's common sense that drug addicted mentally ill people will engage in more anti-social behavior, crime included.
    - Schiendelman 5y ago
      You just changed your population from “the mentally ill AND homeless” to “the mentally ill homeless.” Very different claims. I understand you mean well but this isn’t helping.
      - ALittleLight 5y ago
        This point is, and has always been, about the mentally ill homeless. Mental illness, is, of course, more common in the homeless than in the general population. Here is the grandparent: "very sad upswing of mentally ill on the streets and subways. They may frighten tourists, but are harmless" Here is the parent: "The mentally ill and homeless are vastly more likely to be dangerous" So, no. The population hasn't changed even slightly. I guess it's also possible that you misread my quote and didn't see or understand the second sentence which I will repeat for you here. "The rate of violent crimes was 40 times higher and the rate of nonviolent crimes 27 times higher in the homeless population."
q1w2 5y ago
> There IS, however, a very sad upswing of mentally ill on the streets and subways. They may frighten tourists, but are harmless Watching someone masturbate publicly while I'm trying to have brunch with my wife and two young daughters is not "harmless". Trying to take my kids on the subway and walking past a mound of urine-smalling clothes with a person laying there who's clearly high... that's not harmless. Most families with the means to move out of the city - have done so. ...and that dramatically alters the neighborhood. > It is shameful that none of the pervasive enormous construction projects are going to facilitate homing them This is a common misconception. There are several reasons homeless people don't go to homeless shelters, but availability isn't really one of them. You cannot collect handouts in a homeless shelter - you cannot bring in drugs and alcohol in a homeless shelter - and you cannot get away from other mentally ill/substance abusive people in a homeless shelter. NYC in particular rents out hotels for their various homeless programs. Only on the coldest winter nights, are the homeless shelters full. ...and even then - they find room for everyone.

chitowneats 5y ago

Crime is down in major metro areas all over the world since the start of the pandemic. The tangible erosion of public safety is unique to the U.S. I've lived in both NYC and Chicago in the past decade. The rapid changes in both cities are quite alarming and no amount of hand waving about 5-30 year time frames is going to make people feel better about the sharp reversal that has occurred in the past 18 months.

jonahbenton 5y ago
Simply false. For all intents and purposes, stranger to stranger crime was virtually zero before the pandemic and is virtually zero now.
- chitowneats 5y ago
  Usually I would ask for a source for such an outlandish claim. This has not been my personal experience in NYC. Your use of "for all intents and purposes" and "virtually" are doing quite a bit of heavy lifting.
  - regnull 5y ago
    Haha, yeah. "For all intents and purposes", "virtually", and don't forget the weird "stranger on stranger". Perhaps if the perpetrator knows you, it makes it better?
    - Schiendelman 5y ago
      Stranger on stranger is a normal way to segment crime. It controls out things that aren’t putting you at risk.
- regnull 5y ago
  Should be easy to find out using a google search, no? Here you go: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statist... Total crimes, 2020: 1817, 2021: 2268 Quite a bit of an increase. 2021 is not over yet.
  - geoffpado 5y ago
    I'm not really trying to counter-argue your point, just clarify, but… isn't that the one-week stats? The YoY stats are 2020: 87,608 vs 2021: 90,362.
    - ben_jones 5y ago
      And that's WITH lockdowns and a way fewer people on the streets in 2020. Of course 2021 would be higher with vaccinations.
    - jjeaff 5y ago
      So on track for maybe a 4% increase. Doesn't quite look like crisis to me. Of course, breakdowns of the type of crime might be helpful. It wouldn't take much of a single type of crime (like assault related to mask/anti-mask or something of that nature to cause a jump).
- dilyevsky 5y ago
  It sure will be zero when cops never show up to take a report (or just stop being called in bc of that the above)

sigmaprimus 5y ago

I'm curious, as a lifelong resident of NYC would You say there are certain sections of the city that are more or less dangerous than others? I have not lived in NYC but have lived in other metropolitan cities and found that all of them had dangerous areas. As far as your comment on generational wealthy living out of city, I find this very interesting as it seems to indicate an anti-gentrification sort of thing that might be occurring, this is something that I have not seen or heard of in any cities other than those on the decline. Anyways, I will take your word on the safeness of the city and at some point in my already half over life I hope I get the opportunity to visit.

SpelingBeeChamp 5y ago
I grew up in the Bronx. If anyone tells you that you can safely go anywhere you want in NYC at any time of day, tell them to go first and report back. NYC is a fantastic place. It is very safe anywhere you would possibly want to go, unless you're going on a crime tour. That doesn't mean it's safe everywhere. In other words, yes, there are certain sections of the city that are more or less dangerous than others.
- samspenc 5y ago
  Yeah as someone who lived in NYC and nearby Jersey City for over a decade before moving out, I was very surprised by OP's comment: > are free to roam around the city at nearly all hours in ways that would have been unthinkable when I was their age. It is incredible how safe NYC is. Yes, the lower / Southern part of Manhattan, below 96th St is fairly safe at all times of the day or even night. But, and this is a big but, stray anywhere out of those "safe" Manhattan neighborhoods and you'll be terrified at how unsafe it is even at dawn or dusk. I've had friends who were mugged early mornings or evenings in areas like Harlem, East Harlem and the Bronx, even when there was a bit of light out. You hear police sirens round the clock in these areas. Anecdotally, when I last visited Manhattan last year, I did notice the following and can confirm that OP is right about this, though I suspect this may improve as life in Manhattan goes back to normal in the months and years to come (maybe?): > There IS, however, a very sad upswing of mentally ill on the streets and subways. They may frighten tourists ...

ALittleLight 5y ago

The mentally ill and homeless are vastly more likely to be dangerous, violent, or criminals. It's simply naivete or wishful thinking to imagine otherwise.

Schiendelman 5y ago
I think you may want to go try to validate that claim with data! You may find that you were engaged in wishful thinking. ;)
- ALittleLight 5y ago
  "The overall rate of criminal offenses was 35 times higher in the homeless mentally ill population than in the domiciled mentally ill population. The rate of violent crimes was 40 times higher and the rate of nonviolent crimes 27 times higher in the homeless population. Homeless defendants were significantly more likely to have been charged with victimizing strangers." https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7641002/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7641002/ You could find an unending stream of such results. It's common sense that drug addicted mentally ill people will engage in more anti-social behavior, crime included.
  - Schiendelman 5y ago
    You just changed your population from “the mentally ill AND homeless” to “the mentally ill homeless.” Very different claims. I understand you mean well but this isn’t helping.
    - ALittleLight 5y ago
      This point is, and has always been, about the mentally ill homeless. Mental illness, is, of course, more common in the homeless than in the general population. Here is the grandparent: "very sad upswing of mentally ill on the streets and subways. They may frighten tourists, but are harmless" Here is the parent: "The mentally ill and homeless are vastly more likely to be dangerous" So, no. The population hasn't changed even slightly. I guess it's also possible that you misread my quote and didn't see or understand the second sentence which I will repeat for you here. "The rate of violent crimes was 40 times higher and the rate of nonviolent crimes 27 times higher in the homeless population."

q1w2 5y ago

> There IS, however, a very sad upswing of mentally ill on the streets and subways. They may frighten tourists, but are harmless Watching someone masturbate publicly while I'm trying to have brunch with my wife and two young daughters is not "harmless". Trying to take my kids on the subway and walking past a mound of urine-smalling clothes with a person laying there who's clearly high... that's not harmless. Most families with the means to move out of the city - have done so. ...and that dramatically alters the neighborhood. > It is shameful that none of the pervasive enormous construction projects are going to facilitate homing them This is a common misconception. There are several reasons homeless people don't go to homeless shelters, but availability isn't really one of them. You cannot collect handouts in a homeless shelter - you cannot bring in drugs and alcohol in a homeless shelter - and you cannot get away from other mentally ill/substance abusive people in a homeless shelter. NYC in particular rents out hotels for their various homeless programs. Only on the coldest winter nights, are the homeless shelters full. ...and even then - they find room for everyone.