5 ms·

It reminds me of how poverty and gun violence dramatically reduced after Roe v. Wade because organizations like Planned Parenthood started installing themselves

It reminds me of how poverty and gun violence dramatically reduced after Roe v. Wade because organizations like Planned Parenthood started installing themselves in minority communities and advocating heavily for abortions.

yeetman21 5y ago
minority communities or poorer communities? also any link to a study, seems very interesting
kortilla 5y ago
Correlation != causation. You should be extra skeptical when there are convenient political points to be gained when implying such causations. Also, freakonomics is just entertainment, not science. Poverty and gun violence also reduced after they took lead out of gas. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/ https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur...
- VWWHFSfQ 5y ago
  From your article: > When Rudy Giuliani ran for mayor of New York City in 1993, he campaigned on a platform of bringing down crime and making the city safe again. > Since 1960, rape rates had nearly quadrupled, murder had quintupled, and robbery had grown fourteenfold. > Giuliani won the election, and he made good on his crime-fighting promises [...] > The results were dramatic. In 1996, the New York Times reported that crime had plunged for the third straight year, the sharpest drop since the end of Prohibition. Since 1993, rape rates had dropped 17 percent, assault 27 percent, robbery 42 percent, and murder an astonishing 49 percent. I'm not sure what point you were trying to make, but nobody disputes that Giuliani's policies on crime were extremely effective. Maybe they had some undesirable side-effects for the minority communities that were most affected by the policies. That should definitely be addressed. But those communities became safer and more affluent in the meantime.
  - jtbayly 5y ago
    Also from the same article: > In city after city, violent crime peaked in the early ’90s and then began a steady and spectacular decline. Washington, DC, didn’t have either Giuliani or Bratton, but its violent crime rate has dropped 58 percent since its peak. Dallas’ has fallen 70 percent. Newark: 74 percent. Los Angeles: 78 percent. > > There must be more going on here than just a change in policing tactics in one city. But what? The point is that correlation is not causation. Assuming that abortion led to a decrease in crime is an assumption. So is assuming that removing lead from the environment led to a decrease in crime. So is assuming that one politician’s methods led to a decrease in crime. In fact, that is probably the least likely, given the fact that it happened everywhere.
  - DFHippie 5y ago
    The same decrease in crime that occurred under Giuliani occurred in other cities around the country and the world which had very different policing policies. See, for example, https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1257/089533004773563485 https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1257/089533004773563485 Or, of course, Kevin Drum's article. TLDR: People do dispute that Giuliani's policies on crime were extremely effective.
  - outworlder 5y ago
    > but nobody disputes that Giuliani's policies on crime were extremely effective. In fact, they were so effective that they reduced the crime rates in the entire country! There's plenty of people disputing the efficacy of NY's policies. https://www.nber.org/digest/jan03/what-reduced-crime-new-york-city https://www.nber.org/digest/jan03/what-reduced-crime-new-yor...
  - Spooky23 5y ago
    Many people dispute it. Giuliani made a lot of political hay out of it for sure, and compstat introduced some accountability to the notorious NYPD bureaucracy. IMO it was a combo of getting rid of the dead wood running the previous administration and demographic changes. (Ie the crack wars were “won” by dominant gangs and the lead gas kids were dead or in jail.) I’d suggest reading about Jack Maple, who was a transit cop in the then separate NY Transit Police. (This was the sea change as his rise to prominence happened due to housecleaning.) He pioneered the methods that became compstat, which started as a revolution and ultimately turned into a yet another bullshit metrics program.
- rzz3 5y ago
  I wouldn’t call it “just entertainment”; it’s perspective, which is an awesome logical device. They’re absolutely not giving hard, peer-reviewed facts, but the mindset is totally valid as a logical tool for the arsenal.
- wpasc 5y ago
  Pirates reduce Global Warming. Fact[1] [1]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikaandersen/2012/03/23/true-fact-the-lack-of-pirates-is-causing-global-warming/?sh=3191410d3a67 https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikaandersen/2012/03/23/true-f...
azinman2 5y ago
> advocating heavily for abortions That seems like a wild claim. Evidence?
taurath 5y ago
Access to birth control could be a much larger factor. Catholics are famously anti birth control, and Protestants only began accepting it starting in 1940, so the 1973 roe v wade decision correlated with a generation which had more societal acceptance of birth control. Many Protestant denominations are still divided on the issue. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protestant_views_on_contraception https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protestant_views_on_contrace...
nkozyra 5y ago
This is a well criticized study, but regardless of how dubious it is, the claim was never focused on "minority" communities and as far as I know Planned Parenthood activities are neither quantified nor included in correlations found.
callmeal 5y ago
> It reminds me of how poverty and gun violence dramatically reduced after Roe v. Wade Poverty and gun violence rates also dramatically reduced after we stopped putting lead in gasoline.
JamesBarney 5y ago
It's far more likely this was caused by a reduction in leaded gas. You see the same drop in crime around the same time in other countries, even though Roe v Wade only happened in the U.S. and across different countries it was close to the leaded gas ban.

yeetman21 5y ago

minority communities or poorer communities? also any link to a study, seems very interesting

kortilla 5y ago

Correlation != causation. You should be extra skeptical when there are convenient political points to be gained when implying such causations. Also, freakonomics is just entertainment, not science. Poverty and gun violence also reduced after they took lead out of gas. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/ https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur...

VWWHFSfQ 5y ago
From your article: > When Rudy Giuliani ran for mayor of New York City in 1993, he campaigned on a platform of bringing down crime and making the city safe again. > Since 1960, rape rates had nearly quadrupled, murder had quintupled, and robbery had grown fourteenfold. > Giuliani won the election, and he made good on his crime-fighting promises [...] > The results were dramatic. In 1996, the New York Times reported that crime had plunged for the third straight year, the sharpest drop since the end of Prohibition. Since 1993, rape rates had dropped 17 percent, assault 27 percent, robbery 42 percent, and murder an astonishing 49 percent. I'm not sure what point you were trying to make, but nobody disputes that Giuliani's policies on crime were extremely effective. Maybe they had some undesirable side-effects for the minority communities that were most affected by the policies. That should definitely be addressed. But those communities became safer and more affluent in the meantime.
- jtbayly 5y ago
  Also from the same article: > In city after city, violent crime peaked in the early ’90s and then began a steady and spectacular decline. Washington, DC, didn’t have either Giuliani or Bratton, but its violent crime rate has dropped 58 percent since its peak. Dallas’ has fallen 70 percent. Newark: 74 percent. Los Angeles: 78 percent. > > There must be more going on here than just a change in policing tactics in one city. But what? The point is that correlation is not causation. Assuming that abortion led to a decrease in crime is an assumption. So is assuming that removing lead from the environment led to a decrease in crime. So is assuming that one politician’s methods led to a decrease in crime. In fact, that is probably the least likely, given the fact that it happened everywhere.
- DFHippie 5y ago
  The same decrease in crime that occurred under Giuliani occurred in other cities around the country and the world which had very different policing policies. See, for example, https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1257/089533004773563485 https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1257/089533004773563485 Or, of course, Kevin Drum's article. TLDR: People do dispute that Giuliani's policies on crime were extremely effective.
- outworlder 5y ago
  > but nobody disputes that Giuliani's policies on crime were extremely effective. In fact, they were so effective that they reduced the crime rates in the entire country! There's plenty of people disputing the efficacy of NY's policies. https://www.nber.org/digest/jan03/what-reduced-crime-new-york-city https://www.nber.org/digest/jan03/what-reduced-crime-new-yor...
- Spooky23 5y ago
  Many people dispute it. Giuliani made a lot of political hay out of it for sure, and compstat introduced some accountability to the notorious NYPD bureaucracy. IMO it was a combo of getting rid of the dead wood running the previous administration and demographic changes. (Ie the crack wars were “won” by dominant gangs and the lead gas kids were dead or in jail.) I’d suggest reading about Jack Maple, who was a transit cop in the then separate NY Transit Police. (This was the sea change as his rise to prominence happened due to housecleaning.) He pioneered the methods that became compstat, which started as a revolution and ultimately turned into a yet another bullshit metrics program.
rzz3 5y ago
I wouldn’t call it “just entertainment”; it’s perspective, which is an awesome logical device. They’re absolutely not giving hard, peer-reviewed facts, but the mindset is totally valid as a logical tool for the arsenal.
wpasc 5y ago
Pirates reduce Global Warming. Fact[1] [1]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikaandersen/2012/03/23/true-fact-the-lack-of-pirates-is-causing-global-warming/?sh=3191410d3a67 https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikaandersen/2012/03/23/true-f...

azinman2 5y ago

> advocating heavily for abortions That seems like a wild claim. Evidence?

taurath 5y ago

Access to birth control could be a much larger factor. Catholics are famously anti birth control, and Protestants only began accepting it starting in 1940, so the 1973 roe v wade decision correlated with a generation which had more societal acceptance of birth control. Many Protestant denominations are still divided on the issue. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protestant_views_on_contraception https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protestant_views_on_contrace...

nkozyra 5y ago

This is a well criticized study, but regardless of how dubious it is, the claim was never focused on "minority" communities and as far as I know Planned Parenthood activities are neither quantified nor included in correlations found.

callmeal 5y ago

> It reminds me of how poverty and gun violence dramatically reduced after Roe v. Wade Poverty and gun violence rates also dramatically reduced after we stopped putting lead in gasoline.

JamesBarney 5y ago

It's far more likely this was caused by a reduction in leaded gas. You see the same drop in crime around the same time in other countries, even though Roe v Wade only happened in the U.S. and across different countries it was close to the leaded gas ban.