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> It’s almost at the point where I think it provides signal that something will be valuable. This is called survivor bias. In reality when things are labeled

> It’s almost at the point where I think it provides signal that something will be valuable. This is called survivor bias. In reality when things are labeled as bad by the majority, they are probably bad and/or are going to fail. but because they fail, you move on and forget about them. Anyway, nobody ever said Facebook was useless when it started. I had two invitations from friends in USA when it was still invite only and people actually offered me money for them... the other examples are hardly revolutionary. many people have said face masks are useless since covid started, but we wear them anyway, because covid actually kills people. that's something I would describe as "considered useless, but became the most popular thing, out of precaution" nobody is going to die without iPads, bitcoins and frankly why airpods are in the list is a mistery to me...

renewiltord 5y ago
Ah no, it's something more special. Like, everyone panned Juicero, but all the mainstream guys loved the iPad. TechCrunch loved it and they didn't even get a trial device. /r/technology made fun of it ("more like maxipad haha"/"4 iphones glued together haha"). I think the key element is watching techies act in a way that's clearly from some deeper place. If Airpods were a separate company, they'd have more revenue than any company on half of the Forbes 500. I think your comment has a bit of this. On HN, everyone treats Airpods like some sort of fad toy. In real life, my friends love the device.
- peoplefromibiza 5y ago
  > On HN, everyone treats Airpods like some sort of fad toy isn't it possible that this is just you generalizing a bit too much? I've simply said they're just earphones and aren't going to change humanity as we know it every brand offer some kind of earbuds, my phone came with a couple of them, never used them, having to charge another device that can fail at any moment is not my idea of comfort. > In real life, my friends love the device. Oh, well, if your friends love it, everyone else must be wrong then... (it seems to me that your conclusion are based on very few observations and not representative of anything. for example you said in every city airpods are everywhere. I live in Italy, they are definitely not everywhere, they ate pretty rare. they are also very expensive for the general population , my friends with an iPhone buy Xiaomi earbuds, they are good enough and cost 1/10th)
  - renewiltord 5y ago
    > for example you said in every city airpods are everywhere I didn’t say that because I concretely do not believe it. They’re an expensive device and still remarkably popular. 5x the revenue of Ferrari and Lamborghini combined.
    - peoplefromibiza 5y ago
      yeah, toilet paper's market is larger than Ferrari market too. No sh*t Sherlock! It's all about volumes, Ferrari is the Mona Lisa, airpods are me drawing on a napkin when I was 5. There are many more drawings on napkins, but they doubtfully have more value than La Gioconda.

renewiltord 5y ago

Ah no, it's something more special. Like, everyone panned Juicero, but all the mainstream guys loved the iPad. TechCrunch loved it and they didn't even get a trial device. /r/technology made fun of it ("more like maxipad haha"/"4 iphones glued together haha"). I think the key element is watching techies act in a way that's clearly from some deeper place. If Airpods were a separate company, they'd have more revenue than any company on half of the Forbes 500. I think your comment has a bit of this. On HN, everyone treats Airpods like some sort of fad toy. In real life, my friends love the device.

peoplefromibiza 5y ago
> On HN, everyone treats Airpods like some sort of fad toy isn't it possible that this is just you generalizing a bit too much? I've simply said they're just earphones and aren't going to change humanity as we know it every brand offer some kind of earbuds, my phone came with a couple of them, never used them, having to charge another device that can fail at any moment is not my idea of comfort. > In real life, my friends love the device. Oh, well, if your friends love it, everyone else must be wrong then... (it seems to me that your conclusion are based on very few observations and not representative of anything. for example you said in every city airpods are everywhere. I live in Italy, they are definitely not everywhere, they ate pretty rare. they are also very expensive for the general population , my friends with an iPhone buy Xiaomi earbuds, they are good enough and cost 1/10th)
- renewiltord 5y ago
  > for example you said in every city airpods are everywhere I didn’t say that because I concretely do not believe it. They’re an expensive device and still remarkably popular. 5x the revenue of Ferrari and Lamborghini combined.
  - peoplefromibiza 5y ago
    yeah, toilet paper's market is larger than Ferrari market too. No sh*t Sherlock! It's all about volumes, Ferrari is the Mona Lisa, airpods are me drawing on a napkin when I was 5. There are many more drawings on napkins, but they doubtfully have more value than La Gioconda.