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I disagree. China is already seeing very worrying negative effects of one child policy era like extremely skewed sex ratio and very low fertility rates. Both of

I disagree. China is already seeing very worrying negative effects of one child policy era like extremely skewed sex ratio and very low fertility rates. Both of these were made worse due to One child policy.

caslon 5y ago
1.7 is a solid fertility rate that you would expect for a large, first-world country, not a "very low" one.
- Laforet 5y ago
  TFR in mainland China is closer to 1.3 according to the 2020 census, and there are plenty of signs pointing to an accelerated decrease for the upcoming decade. https://www.reuters.com/article/china-society-census-fertility-idUSL4N2MY140 https://www.reuters.com/article/china-society-census-fertili...
  - caslon 5y ago
    The OP and I both agree that pandemic years are outliers, which is why we're using the 2019 numbers.
    - Laforet 5y ago
      Except the worldwide birth rate did not change much in 2020, even for countries severely affected by Covid like US and Brazil. The apparent sharp drop from 1.6 to 1.3 probably had no relation to the pandemic after all.
- einszwei 5y ago
  1.7 iirc is for 2019. China had record low births in 2020. Also, replacement rate for china is higher because the sex ratio for some age groups is as bad as 115 males to 100 females. The worst effect of one child policy was imo skewed sex ratio.
  - caslon 5y ago
    The OP and I both agree that pandemic years are outliers, which is why we're using the 2019 numbers.
- refurb 5y ago
  Right but China is not a “large, first world country”. A large swath of China is still very low income and rural. The fact that the birth rate is already comparable with developed countries with 5x per capital income is worrying if the trend continues.
  - caslon 5y ago
    China is a large, first world country. The amount of people who are rural in China are statistically insignificant in comparison to the vast number of people in cities; the average is nearly entirely dependent on the southeast half of China.
    - refurb 5y ago
      China is 40% rural and its median income is about 1/10th developed countries. It is in no way close to the first world country. https://tradingeconomics.com/china/rural-population-percent-of-total-population-wb-data.html https://tradingeconomics.com/china/rural-population-percent-...

caslon 5y ago

1.7 is a solid fertility rate that you would expect for a large, first-world country, not a "very low" one.

Laforet 5y ago
TFR in mainland China is closer to 1.3 according to the 2020 census, and there are plenty of signs pointing to an accelerated decrease for the upcoming decade. https://www.reuters.com/article/china-society-census-fertility-idUSL4N2MY140 https://www.reuters.com/article/china-society-census-fertili...
- caslon 5y ago
  The OP and I both agree that pandemic years are outliers, which is why we're using the 2019 numbers.
  - Laforet 5y ago
    Except the worldwide birth rate did not change much in 2020, even for countries severely affected by Covid like US and Brazil. The apparent sharp drop from 1.6 to 1.3 probably had no relation to the pandemic after all.
einszwei 5y ago
1.7 iirc is for 2019. China had record low births in 2020. Also, replacement rate for china is higher because the sex ratio for some age groups is as bad as 115 males to 100 females. The worst effect of one child policy was imo skewed sex ratio.
- caslon 5y ago
  The OP and I both agree that pandemic years are outliers, which is why we're using the 2019 numbers.
refurb 5y ago
Right but China is not a “large, first world country”. A large swath of China is still very low income and rural. The fact that the birth rate is already comparable with developed countries with 5x per capital income is worrying if the trend continues.
- caslon 5y ago
  China is a large, first world country. The amount of people who are rural in China are statistically insignificant in comparison to the vast number of people in cities; the average is nearly entirely dependent on the southeast half of China.
  - refurb 5y ago
    China is 40% rural and its median income is about 1/10th developed countries. It is in no way close to the first world country. https://tradingeconomics.com/china/rural-population-percent-of-total-population-wb-data.html https://tradingeconomics.com/china/rural-population-percent-...